Shawn Ryan Show - #190 Shyam Sankar - Chief Technology Officer of Palantir: The Future of Warfare

Episode Date: April 10, 2025

Shyam Sankar is the Chief Technology Officer at Palantir Technologies. A builder at heart, he’s spent over 20 years designing and deploying cutting-edge software and AI for both government and priva...te sector partners. As Palantir’s 13th hire, Shyam helped take the company from scrappy startup to S&P 500 powerhouse. A relentless opponent of inefficiency and red tape, Shyam has made it his mission to overhaul the institutions holding America back—starting with the government. His focus? The Defense Reformation: a bold effort to transform how the U.S. military buys, builds, and fights so we can win—and keep winning. Shawn Ryan Show Sponsors: https://roka.com - use code SRS https://tryarmra.com/SRS https://BetterHelp.com/SRS https://Blackbuffalo.com https://boncharge.com/SRS https://MeetFabric.com/SHAWN https://ShawnLikesGold.com | 855-936-GOLD https://Helixsleep.com/SRS https://hexclad.com/SRS https://hillsdale.edu/SRS https://PatriotMobile.com/SRS | 972-PATRIOT https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/SRS Download the app today and use code SRS https://RocketMoney.com/SRS Shyam Sankar Links: X - https://x.com/ssankar Substack - https://www.shyamsankar.com LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/shyamsankar On The Defense Reformation - https://18theses.com First Breakfast - https://www.firstbreakfast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:25 It's happening now at BHP, a future resources company. With AI and the AI revolution, people think, oh it's gonna make the median person better. That's true, but it's gonna make the very best person superhuman. Hot news right now is you know the tariffs just came out yesterday. I'm just curious what are your thoughts on that? When Rocketman was rattling his, you know, the tariffs just came out yesterday. I'm just curious, what are your thoughts on that? When Rocket Man was rattling his saber in 2017, the Army wanted to answer the question, how many tanks are there in the Army? That is a three-week data call.
Starting point is 00:00:53 Are you serious? So Operation Paperclip was our covert action to bring the very best scientists from Nazi Germany to the US to enable our defense program, in particular our rocket and space program. How worried do we need to be about China? Shamsankar, welcome to the show, man. Great to be here. Thanks for having me, Sean. Yeah, my pleasure. We had Joe on, what, maybe four months ago ish and
Starting point is 00:01:26 man, I'm just fascinated with with what you guys are doing over at Palantir and it is just I'm Super excited about this interview and I want to dive more into that and you've got a hell of a life story So I'm really excited to do this. Thank you for coming. Thank you, but everybody starts off with an introduction here. So Sham Sankar, Chief Technology Officer and employee number 13 of Palantir Technologies, BS in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Cornell University and an MS in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University. Spent over two decades building and delivering disruptive software and AI solutions for the government and the private sector, widely known as the sworn enemy of slowness and slayer
Starting point is 00:02:15 of bureaucracy. I love that. Dedicated your career to upending institutions that are failing American people, starting with the government. The defense reformation is your manifesto, which you can read at 18thesis.com. Your goal is to fix the way our military buys weapons and wages war so that America can always win. And you have a quote that I really like. My parents' journey showed me that America is not a place where everything is perfect, but is a place where anything is possible
Starting point is 00:02:49 That's right quote man, but you know I just have I got a ton of respect for you I mean from where you've grown up which will dive into to where you are today and and it's just It's fascinating and I think it brings a lot of hope I mean you've earned everything that you've accomplished and I just I And it's just, it's fascinating. And I think it brings a lot of hope. I mean, you've earned everything that you've accomplished. And I just, I absolutely love these types of stories. So once again, thank you for being here. No, thank you for having me.
Starting point is 00:03:14 I'm just, I'm just really grateful for everything this country has given us. Me too, me too. But everybody gets a gift. Amazing. The Julek gummy bears made here in the USA. Legal in all 50 states. There's no funny business in it.
Starting point is 00:03:32 It's just candy. Of course, they probably will be illegal here. An RFK gets going because, you know, it's got all the bad shit in them. I love it. But they taste good. So, and then one other thing before we get in the weeds. I've got a patreon account Patreon that a lot of these guys have been with us since the very beginning when I was doing this thing in my attic then we moved here wife kicked me out because we had a
Starting point is 00:03:56 we had a kid she's like get all these people out of the house and And then now we're building we're building a new studio It's gonna be about three and a half times the size of this one. It should be done in about three months. You'll have to come back and see it. But one of the things I do is I give them the opportunity to ask each and every guest a question. So this is from Kevin O'Malley. Will the massive capacities of quantum computers influence the balance of power once they're leveraged as offensive tools?
Starting point is 00:04:27 Yes, absolutely. Quantum, quantum surprise, staying ahead of it, understanding its implications. One way of thinking about it is there's nothing new under the sun. There's just the OODA loop. And what is quantum's implication on how quickly you're going to go through John Void's Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, Oodaloo. I think it has it has exponential implications on that. What exactly is quantum computing? I hear it all the time, it sounds scary. I mean is it just really really fast? I mean what is it? I
Starting point is 00:04:59 think that it's really like millions of times faster is the way to think about it. It's like you can compute, it uses quantum mechanics to do the computation and you're able to compute enormous permutations and combinations of things at incredible speed. The most obvious implication is it breaks all of our legacy encryption. So your ability to communicate securely
Starting point is 00:05:20 and to the extent anyone has been storing historical encrypted communications, their ability to decrypt that will be near instantaneous. So it has huge implications there. But then for your ability going forward now, like that you're going to have to adopt that. So you have quantum proof, quantum encryption that works. But then I think there's even more implications beyond that. The encryption is the first thing that we have to worry about.
Starting point is 00:05:44 The next thing is how are we going to employ this for decision advantage? How close are we to that? Well, that's kind of an open question. I think really smart people I know keep saying we're really close, but really smart people in the 60s thought we were 10 years away from AI. So we'll have to see. Who else is working on it in the world? The Chinese.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Great. Great. Well, we're going to talk a lot about China in the interview too. So, but getting into the interview, I mean, you grew up in a mud hut in India. So. My father did. Your father did? Yeah. So my father was the last of nine children in a single, he grew up, he was born in a So, what did you- My father did. Your father did. Yeah. So, my father was the last of nine children. He grew up, he was born in a single room mud hut in the south of India.
Starting point is 00:06:33 And his siblings all helped him get to college. And India had its own version, still does have its own version of DEI there. So, he was not allowed, he's a very smart man, but he wasn't allowed to go to med school. He couldn't get a slot, but he became a pharmacist. That's like the next best thing for him. Um, and he was sleeping after he graduated from pharmacy school. He was sleeping literally under the kitchen table of one of his brothers. And his, my, his sister-in-law, brother's wife got kind of tired
Starting point is 00:07:02 of having her on the house. So found him a job in Nigeria. He was 23 at the time. And so he, you know, young man, excited about a venture. He went to Nigeria as a pharmacist to build the first pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in all of Africa. Until then, all the drugs were imported. And so he did really well for himself at a very young age. I was probably born seven years after he'd been living in Nigeria. My mom went back to India to have me. And then I came back to Nigeria as soon as I was old enough to travel. So I really, my first three or so years of my life, I was in Nigeria. But the reason that came to an end, we had a horrible armed
Starting point is 00:07:42 robbery in the house, which we lived across the street from the manufacturing facility, where all of the cash was kept from the operation. And so it was a little bit of an inside job of people who worked there who did this. They decapitated the dog. They threatened, they pistol-whipped dad, they threatened to execute him. They threatened my mom. I was a child and really I was just excited to have visitors. You know, you can't control a child. I was just excited to have visitors in the middle of the night. Dad was only spared because one of the five armed robbers was a regular at...
Starting point is 00:08:15 My mom ran an open kitchen. Anyone who worked at the facility, anyone who was help, anyone from the surrounding area, they could always come and eat Indian food that mom would make. And so this guy was a regular. anyone from the surrounding area, they could always come and eat Indian food that mom would make. And so this guy was a regular and he just, you know, he just made sure they didn't kill us. Wow. And so we left all of our earthly possessions behind and had to find a place to resettle. Dad had a friend who somehow just, you know, the life works, had moved to LA,
Starting point is 00:08:45 a friend that he grew up with in this village, moved to LA and he was selling knickknacks to theme parks. He went from pharmaceutical manufacturing to selling knickknacks in the States. So this friend was like, you know, there's this place, Orlando. I live in LA, there's this place, Orlando, all the theme parks are moving there.
Starting point is 00:09:02 I need someone I can trust there. And that's how we ended up in Orlando, selling knickknacks to theme parks are moving there. I need someone I can trust there. And that's how we ended up in Orlando selling knickknacks to theme parks, which was fantastic. And for me, it was fantastic. My after-school care program was really mom would pick me up from school, we'd go to SeaWorld so she could restock the shelves, and I'd be petting the stingrays. So I thought that was normal.
Starting point is 00:09:22 I didn't quite realize what a unique experience it was. Now there were some downsides to this. Some of the knickknacks we sold were t-shirts. And until I was old enough to read, I was dressed in all of the t-shirt misprints. It didn't say Shamu. It would say like Tamu. It's like everything that went wrong, that was free clothes I got to have. But it was also really a privilege to grow up in the shadow of the space coast.
Starting point is 00:09:47 Orlando is close enough that in elementary school, you would file out to the courtyard to watch the shuttle launch. You would wake up Saturday mornings to a double sonic boom of the shuttle re-entering. It gave you a visceral sense of scientific progress, American prosperity, what we can do collectively when we put our mind to it. Wow. What kind of stuff were you, I mean, your dad's your hero, correct?
Starting point is 00:10:11 He is my hero, yeah. Is he still with us today? He passed away in 21. I'm sorry to hear that. Sorry to hear that. So you grew up, I mean, you're an entrepreneur. When did the entrepreneurial mindset kind of kick in for you? At a pretty early age, because my dad, in some sense, you could say,
Starting point is 00:10:29 was also an entrepreneur, and he was always encouraging me to think about these things. And I worked at his pharmacy in Orlando as a child, in high school. I started programming 11th grade. I started programming professionally and kept doing that. I actually dropped out of Cornell for a hot minute there to build a company and try to get going with it. But I've always been dabbling in these sorts of efforts. And I knew that ultimately I wanted to be part of creating something new, being part
Starting point is 00:11:03 of an early founding team. And really the reason I went from Cornell to Stanford in 2003, it can be hard to remember, but even Google didn't recruit on the Cornell campus. Most of my technical classmates, unfortunately went into consulting and banking, you know, there's nothing wrong with it, but it's not the same thing as creating.
Starting point is 00:11:23 And so I had to find some way, some mechanism to get to the West Coast to be with a bunch of other people who really thought of building as the primary purpose of their life's mission. So within two months of being at Stanford, I had a full-time job as the fifth employee at a startup called Zoom with an X that did international money transfer. It was seed funded by Peter Thiel and my interviews were with Roloff Botha and Keith Raboi, who are founding members of the PayPal mafia. And that's how I kind of got started in that world. Man, that's, it seems like all you guys know each other pretty well.
Starting point is 00:11:56 You and how did you meet Joe? So I had been working at Zoom for almost three years. And one of the colleagues I was working with said, you know, there's this company that just sounds perfect for you, it's a small group of people, at the time it was 12 people. And my freshman room dorm mate at Stanford is one of the co-founders, Joe.
Starting point is 00:12:16 No kidding? So he put me in touch with Joe, and Joe was how I, Joe hired me, that's how I got started. Wow, that's, I love talking to him, man. He's like such a fascinating guy. So what was Palantir at the start, at the beginning? It was honestly something much smaller. I mean, it was still ambitious in the sense that this group of folks wanted to work on
Starting point is 00:12:40 problems to help a handful of institutions in the world with counterterrorism. And we had this idea that in the discourse, if we can remember what it was like immediately post 9-11, it was really the political discourse was something like, what matters more, security or privacy? And it's like to us as engineers, that sounded stupid, like, don't both of those things matter? And so, politicians, they debate debate where should you be on the efficient frontier? Should we trade off this to have more of this or whatever? But engineers, they build things so you can have more of both. And so who's going to build the actual technology
Starting point is 00:13:14 that allows us to protect the data so that we can maximize what we can share so that there's never going to be dots that we can't connect again, and do so in a way that the American people have confidence in and can believe in and recognizing that a solution that was really going to do that would have to span countries. You know, one of the proudest operations that we were involved in was defeating an ISIS cell in Iraq that had a downed US drone that they were going to load with explosives and bring to a hospital, explode it and then blame it on the coalition. And to solve that problem, it required intel from the Danes, the Americans and the Brits.
Starting point is 00:13:56 And how does that work historically? Hopefully you have friends at each of these services and you're all going to share information and it gets through the foreign disclosure process and you know everything in that methodology is set up so that we lose. You're not going to be able to do it fast enough to intervene. But you know our technology enabled that to happen machine to machine in a way that before they could get the drone out of their garage they were gone. Wow.
Starting point is 00:14:21 I mean so what even after interviewing Joe I'm still I'm still trying to figure out what I mean, what Palantir does and and and how it deciphers all that information. I mean, just a couple you guys are in anti money laundering, rail, energy, defense, insurance, semiconductors, utilities, retail. I mean, there's got to be a list of at least 30 things. Yeah. Well, yeah, at this point, so we do much more than counterterrorism as you're pointing out. The business, there's two sides of it. There's the government side and the commercial side.
Starting point is 00:14:54 Okay. And it's about 50-50, which is unusual, I think, for reasons we'll maybe get into later. But the commercial side, it's 50 different industries, energy and mining, insurance, pharmaceuticals. And the government side, most of what we industries, energy and mining, insurance, pharmaceuticals. And the government side, most of what we're well known for is defense and intelligence. Absolutely, that's two-thirds of the business. But also health, the IRS, tax fraud, Justice Department, helping these organizations run themselves better. And what the technology really does, you can think about it as like an operating system for an organization.
Starting point is 00:15:25 It allows you to actually see yourself. It's shocking how hard this is. How do I have access to all of the data that's in my enterprise in a way that I as a human think about it? I as the principle, not just the human, but I as the principle, like what's my model for this? What are the questions I want to ask? Simple example, when Rocketman was rattling his saber in 2017 in North Korea, the Army wanted
Starting point is 00:15:46 to answer the question, how many tanks are there in the Army? That is a three-week data call. Are you serious? It takes three weeks to get an inventory. It took. Until we got involved, it took three weeks to answer that question. Because there's no canonical representation of a tank. And what do you mean by tank?
Starting point is 00:16:01 Do you mean the ones that are ready or not ready? So the way you would do it is you would you would send down the data call to all of the units. They'd go check out the motor pool. They'd come back with the answer. And so there's no living, breathing, canonical record that continues to flow through this. We've built these systems. The army is older than the country.
Starting point is 00:16:17 Like we've built these systems like archaeology. When you go back there and try to look at this, it's not how you would do it today. But that's our extant reality. We have to deal with this messiness. Sometimes, the cynical way to think about Palantir is it took something as sexy as James Bond to motivate engineers to work on a problem as boring as data integration.
Starting point is 00:16:36 But that is the starting point. If you can't see yourself, if you can't integrate all your data, like you're just always chasing your tail. Then on top of that, we make powerful interfaces for decision making. One of the contrarian quips I have is that
Starting point is 00:16:51 data is not the new oil. People have been running around saying data's the new oil, data's the new oil. I think data's the new snake oil. There's nothing inherently valuable about data. It's only valuable if you can use it to make a decision. So that it's about decision advantage. So how do I leverage this data I've now integrated so that you can make a better decision, you can see further in
Starting point is 00:17:10 the future, that you can out-compete your competitor in the commercial world or your adversary in the defense world. Part of the reason I do what I do is for my family. I want to leave them a better country than the one I was born into. I also want to make sure they're taken care of financially. And that's why I make it a priority to help protect the money I've worked so hard to earn and save. And one of the ways I do that is by diversifying into gold and silver. Precious metals have been a store value
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Starting point is 00:19:17 that ISIS was gonna move into a hospital and blow it up and blame it on us. I mean, what kind of data are you guys feeding Ballantyr to make those type of decisions and to speed the process up? Just for example, so I'm a former SEAL, I hear that and I think, okay, well, let's go raid the compound where they're doing that, kill all the bad guys and recover the drone and it so the decision seems Fairly, I mean obvious in my opinion. So what?
Starting point is 00:19:53 The decision is leading up to the point where you realize that's what they're trying to do, right? Okay, how do I integrate the human reporting that I have that tells me what might be going on now? Keep in mind that one part of the reporting is in this country, one part of the reporting is in that country. You know, who's willing to share what? Who even knows that sharing it is going to lead to a mission critical outcome that saves lives? So how do you start to automate more of that? How do you help them piece those things together? How do you combine the technical collection you have with this too? So maybe you have SIGINT that helps you understand this, helps you understand
Starting point is 00:20:26 that this reporting is correlated to other cells that you actually care about where you have intercepts that tell you something. How do I use my historic FMV footage observations of that compound that helped me piece together more, more things that lead to the conclusion we've got a problem here and we've got a tight timeline to act on. Holy shit. So it's so basic. here and we've got a tight timeline to only shit.
Starting point is 00:20:43 So it's so basic. So my right, if I say, I mean, contractor for the agency, operator for the Navy sales, I saw how inefficient government communication is just within us stuff. You see how a FBI, D a mill, all these, all these different organizations, all, I mean, it's a disaster trying to talk to each other. And so basically this takes all the information. So all these entities are feeding Palantir the information and then Palantir basically, what disseminates or not disseminate, but processes the information and gives you the
Starting point is 00:21:23 probability of what is likely going to happen? It's like turning on the light on the battle space, the things that you couldn't see before you could see now. Now, some important, might seem slightly technocratic, but we're providing the software to the government customers so that no one's providing us all of this data. The government has the data, great, but it's just sitting there. It's in the dark. It's hard to see all of this information.
Starting point is 00:21:44 It's overwhelming sitting there. It's in the dark. It's hard to see all this information. It's overwhelming. Great. How do we get the spotlight to highlight the things that actually matter? How do I get to ask the next question? Here's something that's risky. Okay, what are the next 10 questions you're going to want? Can you even answer those 10 questions in 10 seconds, or is that going to take you 10 weeks? If it takes you 10 weeks, you're not even going to bother answering those questions. All right, so can I make that fast enough that you get to why does this matter and is this a threat or is this irrelevant? That's the first part. The second part of it that's really important is because why is this information sharing so hard? Well, there are lots of rules and regulations. People have different authorities, different things can be shared. The way we enforce that today is with
Starting point is 00:22:21 humans, which is crazy, which is why it's slow and inefficient and you miss things. We replace that enforcement with software. The software insurers, no one can see anything they're not allowed to see. The software insurers, under the right conditions for information sharing, the right pieces of information flow from one agency to the other. So by automating that flow, it means that you kind of have a hive mind. The entire government can operate competently because you're actually able to see everything you're allowed to see as opposed to, well, we have humans
Starting point is 00:22:49 who are gatekeeping us along the way, just slowing everything down, which always when you have humans, it always devolves into control. You know, it's not, the mission gets obfuscated by, well, we do this job, they do that job and the interpersonal factors get in the way. Wow. So what was it at the beginning you guys were doing back when you were employee number, when you came on as employee number 13?
Starting point is 00:23:14 Well, you know, it was really hard because none of us had worked in government. None of us had clearances. We would go to DC. We'd literally carry our Pelican case with a projector. I mean, talk about state of technology. You couldn't even rely on a projector being in the government commerce. You had to bring your own projector to make sure you could actually show the customers
Starting point is 00:23:33 what you were building. And we were really eliciting feedback for them. Like, okay, I built this, you know, and we don't know your workflow, but based on your reactions, I'm going to go away and code that night and come back tomorrow and show you something new. And we had to do all this kind of notionally to begin with on low side synthetic data until we got to a threshold of conviction. And that threshold of conviction, I mean, almost to the point, it started because of
Starting point is 00:23:56 a renegade analyst. And I think she's been a prior guest of yours, actually, Sarah Adams. No kidding. Yeah. So Sarah Adams, so Inkytel brought a fresh, bright-eyed, bushy-tailed cohort of CIA analysts out to the West Coast. We were maybe 20 people at the time. We were one of the stops along the way. And she saw the demo and she's like, I need this.
Starting point is 00:24:20 Why don't we have this? In fact, I joined this organization because I thought I'd be having James Bond technology. Somehow, I have WordPerfect and Lotus Notes. She organized a day on her own. I think she was maybe like a GS12. On her own, she organized a day of three meetings where more than 200 analysts came to see this thing. At some point, the deep state, the IT people got wind of this
Starting point is 00:24:45 and came to this meeting trying to shut it down, trying to dampen the excitement, but they were, you know, the analysts were just in revolt. Like, why can't we have a pilot? Why can't we try this out? And that broke the floodgates open for us. So years. I probably did 300 demonstrations in meetings
Starting point is 00:25:02 trying to get a single pilot. And that one day she made it all happen. I want to have talked to her about that. 300 demonstrations and meetings trying to get a single pilot. And that one day she made it all happen. I'm going to have to talk to her about that. She's been holding out on me. Wow. So you guys were in defense tech at the very beginning and then grew into all these other things.
Starting point is 00:25:18 It was always about defense. I mean, I'm very happy we have a commercial business. It powers a lot of innovation and frankly, a lot of the things we learn in commercial, we're able to bring over to give the government decisive advantages. We're able to amortize the R&D. Ideas that BP or Avis have make the Army better. That's one way of thinking about it. But we really started because we cared about the government mission.
Starting point is 00:25:41 And we honestly would not have built a commercial business except for the fact that the government was so slow and so hard that we were gonna go broke if we just stuck by being purely a government company. Wow. What was the pushback from when you're saying the deep state was trying to pipe it down a little bit? A desire to build all this stuff themselves. We don't need these outsiders.
Starting point is 00:26:04 They don't know our stuff. I'll give you, I'll reason by analogy. So I recently met someone who was in Kwajalein, and I think it was 2014 when SpaceX was launching their early rockets. You know, Elon was one launch, he had four, he had three failures, and he was one launch away from losing the whole business. And he said, you know, I was there and the SpaceX facility is right next to the Boeing facility. And you go to the SpaceX facility and you compare it to the Boeing. The Boeing facility is like a clean room,
Starting point is 00:26:32 you're wearing a bunny suit, it looks so sophisticated. SpaceX, it's open air, parts on a table, things are rusting. And you're just like, these guys are never gonna make it. You know, like this, they don't know what they're doing. But you fundamentally misunderstood what was happening there. It's not where are they today, it's how, what's the first derivative?
Starting point is 00:26:51 How quickly are they improving? How good is that team? And that is the world's best team, right? And look what's possible now, you know? Like our launch capability is unmatched and the price performance that Elon is able to deliver. When I was a kid growing up shuttle, it used to cost $50,000 that Elon is able to deliver. When I was a kid growing up, shuttle, it used to cost $50,000 per kilogram to get to orbit.
Starting point is 00:27:10 With Starship Heavy reuse, it'll be 10 to 20 bucks. I mean, it's just orders of magnitude difference, right? And I think there was something like that in the early days for us, which is, this seems like a joke, who are these kids running around in shorts? You know, I remember one early meeting I had in the Pentagon, I didn't wear a tie. I mean, I wore a suit, everything except for a tie. First 30 minutes of the meeting,
Starting point is 00:27:33 I just got dressed down for how disrespectful it was to show up without a tie. Look, I always wear a tie now. I've learned my lesson, but I think we lost the plot. Like the substance is the code, not the quality of my tie, it's the quality lost the plot. Like the substance is the code, not the quality of my tie. It's the quality of the code. Wow.
Starting point is 00:27:48 Do you guys, even still to this day, but let's stick at the beginning right now. I mean, you've really disrupted, I feel like you've really disrupted the military industrial complex, the legacy companies, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, INSERT, whoever, you know, I mean, was there a lot of pushback from them? There was, there was a lot of pushback. There's a lot of kind of fake partnerships, you know,
Starting point is 00:28:17 like, hey, let's bring you in for some small, tiny amount of work share that will actually be zero. We don't really need you is the vibe. But I would say in fairness, when we first started, we thought the primes would be our big competitors. What I didn't realize is actually the government was our big competitor. The way that the government structured,
Starting point is 00:28:38 you have these program offices and they have the perfect five-year, 10-year plan. They kind of just want to lock in their plan. And we were a threat that disrupted all of their well-laid plans. Instead of adopting us, they wanted to reject us. And so if you really look at the early days of Palantir, all of our adoption was driven from the field back.
Starting point is 00:28:58 So all of our attempts to get people in DC really interested in what we're doing, it was in benefit of hindsight, it was wasted time. You know, our first deployment was with 10th Group as they took over Siege of Sotif AP in Balad. And it's because the commander, the colonel, it's just like three days before deploying, he called us up. We had been showing him our software.
Starting point is 00:29:19 He's like, well, I don't know. Like I don't buy things. I'm a warfighter. I don't buy things. And three days before he going, he just had that feeling like I need this. Like if you guys come, drive for Carson, I'll palletize your servers and I'll give you four seats. And that's what happened.
Starting point is 00:29:34 We just drove all our stuff over there, flew over. For two weeks, the Krusty Warren officers were like, why do I have to find housing for these 22-year-olds? You know, two weeks. But after that, we earned our keep. They're like, I know why they're here. You were over there? I didn't go on that trip, but Matt Grim,
Starting point is 00:29:52 who is one of the co-founders of Andrel, was working for me at the time. He went over on that trip. Greg Barbaccia, who's now the federal government CIO, he was one of our first guys on the ground in Balad. But you'd been over there. Yeah. What was that like for you? on the ground in Balad. But you've been over there. What was that like for you?
Starting point is 00:30:07 It was eye-opening. Most of my time I spent at Leatherneck, so in Hellmand, working with the Marines. Nice place. I've been there. Dicey spot. What year? That was 2012, or 2011. No shit. I was there around that time. Interesting. Tell me about it. How did that
Starting point is 00:30:28 experience go for you? I mean, we would have these... It's like a cup of motivation under cells. It's like a water tank of motivation. You know, you have these people, they come back from mission, they tell you what happened, they tell you their ideas, their feature requests, and you just have unbounded energy to code right there. You're just in a plywood little setup writing code and okay, I'm gonna have something better for you for tomorrow, and you just do that again and again.
Starting point is 00:30:56 That the whole product development life cycle. That was really, I was the first forward deployed engineer at Palantir, which investors hated, because they thought it was a service business, not how you're supposed to do software. Everything about it was wrong to them, but it was so clearly right for our users. Of course you need the person who actually knows how to build the product sitting forward
Starting point is 00:31:14 in the tent with the people doing the work so that you can observe not what people in headquarters think the software needs to be, but the empirical reality on the front of what is missing. What could make this person more successful on the next mission than the prior mission. And if you do that for long enough, you just build this deep understanding of everything that's broken in the world, everything that sucks about their experience, everything that makes them more likely to come back as a team together. And it's also, by the way, how you say, you know, there's lots of jobs coders can take,
Starting point is 00:31:48 but you know, this is, it is an addiction to the motivation. You know, your sense of purpose is unbounded. Man, I love that way of thinking. I mean, I think like that just doing the podcast, which, but, you know, I just, and I find whatever, whatever sector I'm operating in business, military, I mean, there's just, there's always this box that they want you to think inside of. And people say, well, think outside of the box. I just, I think what box there is no box to think of.
Starting point is 00:32:24 And so I'm always looking for ways to innovate this and to not go by the typical roadmap that everybody expects you and wants you to follow. And you guys like nailed it, nailed it. Well, you know, to take credit away from us and give it to our customers, I think, first of all, this Colonel is absorbing a lot of risk by bending some, I wouldn't say breaking, but bending some rules and going against the system.
Starting point is 00:32:55 That was the beginning of a much longer fight. As that became successful, more and more people, the first thing they do when they would deploy would put in an urgent operational needs statement to get Palantir because what they had wasn't working. And, you know, some of those people did suffer career consequences for doing the right thing and doing that and you knew you had to deliver for them. But the other part of it is really without their partnership.
Starting point is 00:33:18 It's like the good idea is don't come eating strawberries in Palo Alto, right? They come on the fire cells of Djibouti and the factory floor of Detroit where you can see firsthand what's happening and not. And that's all of the inspiration, all of the creativity. It comes from that environment. And I think now this methodology has become more commonplace.
Starting point is 00:33:36 People talk about forward deployed engineering. Companies are building around it. And I think it's great because I would say a critique of the software industrial complex is if software industrial complex is, if software is so great, why does nothing seem to work? Why are doors falling off planes? Why do our, why is there so much fraud
Starting point is 00:33:54 in our government system? We should be looking really hard at this. And I think it's because we've just been doing it wrong. We haven't been holding ourselves accountable to the primacy of winning. It doesn't matter what box of software you thought you were going to make, everyone living inside that box doesn't work. It doesn't matter. What could you change that it worked better tomorrow? Are you impatient enough to go drive that change? A lot of that comes down to
Starting point is 00:34:21 institutionalizing rebellion. There was nothing that headquarters was going to tell our engineers in the field that would make them better at coming up with the next feature. That was going to come out of their own crazy creative ideas being really right next to the problem. So my job is to support them in doing that to the greatest extent possible as we continue to build the company. So the machine doesn't crush them, the machine encourages them. And that's led to this philosophy at Palantir that we are not a factory, we're
Starting point is 00:34:48 an artist colony. Like my job is to find Dali and Monet and don't do stupid things like yell at Monet to paint more like Dali. Like each of these people are unique artists. And my job is to get out of their way, make sure other people stay out of their way, provide as much room as possible and help them, you know, just like an artist. It's not like every piece of art is better than the last one. You go through waves and cycles and just create the environment that allows them to do their best work.
Starting point is 00:35:14 Interesting. You guys, Palantir sued the government towards the beginning, correct? Yeah. In 2016, we sued the Army because we were unable to compete on their Army Intel program. So the story is like all these units, as they would deploy, they would request Palantir. The reason they had to request Palantir
Starting point is 00:35:36 is there was an Army program of record, as the government calls it, called DSIGS. And DSIGS-A was, you know, it was the blessed system that was supposed to do Army Intel, except it didn't really work. $26 billion, many years of development, and you would honestly find it, you know, when the generals came, people would turn it on and pretend like it worked, but it was a paperweight to them.
Starting point is 00:35:58 They would just, you know, store, it was just sitting there collecting dust. And we were there on the ground. We were highly responsive. And all we wanted was the opportunity. So this program was coming up for a re-compete. And we wanted to compete to win it. The way the Army structured it precluded us from competing. It basically said, you have to custom build a product and turn over all your IP to us, or you're not even
Starting point is 00:36:22 allowed to compete, which is illegal, it turns out, which is why we sued that there's a law from 1994 called the commercial item preference, that if a commercial product exists, the government is not allowed to go custom develop something because that's risky, probably going to cost you a lot more. And as a philosophy, we'd rather tie our investments to think the commercial world is adopted, because it means it probably works. It's been de-risked. Hyper-competitive free markets are voting on and providing
Starting point is 00:36:52 the stimulus to keep making it better. It's going to be cheaper. So we sued them. It went to appeal. We won on appeal. So it's a very, very strong precedent. But I think the key lesson from that really is like how hard it is to change just the momentum in the bureaucracy.
Starting point is 00:37:11 One of my favorite anecdotes is there was a contractor working on this legacy D6A system in his civilian job, but he was a reservist. He got flipped to active duty and deployed to Afghanistan. The first thing he did when he hit the ground was put in an ons for Palantir. So when his life was on the line, he knew what he wanted to back. Wow. Wow.
Starting point is 00:37:34 What are some other, I mean, how often were you guys going overseas? Constantly. Working with the war fighters. Yeah, constantly. Like we would, we were in Iraq and Afghanistan throughout the conflict supporting users. We were working with coalition as well with UK Special Forces, other places, Philippines,
Starting point is 00:37:55 Djibouti, supporting ODAs. We get on the little, I don't know what you call it, the conveyor belt of flights that would go visit the forward operating bases and make sure folks had what they needed, make sure that they're forward locked. They would take their laptops to do key leader engagements where like all the intel was really coming back and when you're alone and unafraid and disconnected, like this was your brain. This is how you were coordinating things. A lot of the value was doing our part, you can't do it all, but doing our part to change the nature of the conflict
Starting point is 00:38:26 from being 17 one-year-long wars to really creating continuity. Like some of the, you'll have Marines that tell you, like there are Marines alive today because of the simple fact that we could look back at past deployments and realize every time prior teams landed at this HLZ, they got bombed to shit. It was always an ambush.
Starting point is 00:38:43 And just being able to see things that we couldn't know, because we weren't there on the ground, we as in the current team, but being able to learn from the history and the experience of everyone else who's been here before us, made us smarter and more lethal and more survivable. Any close calls when you were over there?
Starting point is 00:39:00 Not for me personally. Some of our teams definitely were under mortar attack and, you know, a few convoys that took some fire, but fortunately for us, no one got hurt. Right on, man. Right on. You know, volunteer sounds like one of the main philosophies is founders first, or founder driven.
Starting point is 00:39:20 What does that mean? Yeah. I think one of the, we could start by what does it not mean? You know, I think why do doors fall off airplanes? Why do we have this legitimation crisis for our institutions? This is the sense that the institutions we have aren't kind of working. And I think it's because they're stuck in manager mode.
Starting point is 00:39:40 There's this idea that there's a playbook. And if you just follow the process, you know, everything will work, everything will be well managed. My experience is it's all well managed into the ground. You know, whether it's a company or a country, there is no playbook. You know, it really comes down to human discretion, human decision making, bold leadership, people with the right ideas. And so certainly in our history, it comes from one of our founders, Peter, it's called the Founders Fund.
Starting point is 00:40:10 The whole idea is that really the value creation engine comes from the founder personality. And the most dynamic parts of our economy are led by founders. You could look at this in Europe. Europe has created zero companies in the last 50 years from scratch that are worth more than $100 billion, zero.
Starting point is 00:40:30 We've created all of our trillion dollar companies in America from scratch in the last 50 years because of founders. And of all countries in the world, we know there's something special about founders. There's a reason we call them the founding fathers. This is a unique legacy of America that we should really be leaning into and embracing. And it's more than just did you found a company.
Starting point is 00:40:52 It's really a mentality, a personality. When you think about Bill Knudsen and how he mobilized us for World War II and built the arsenal of democracy, he's got a founder personality or Admiral Rickover. This guy born in a Polish shuttle, came here when I think when he was six years old, short man, short stature, feisty. He was so hated at the US Naval Academy, they've actually torn his picture out of the yearbook.
Starting point is 00:41:15 Zumwalt said when he was CNO, the Navy has three enemies, Soviet Union, the Air Force, and Hyman Rickover, one of his own. But he built the nuclear Navy, you know, and that was really, he, by total happen, and Hyman Rickover, one of his own. But he built the nuclear navy. By total happenstance after World War II, he went to visit Oak Ridge and he realized, holy crap, this could power an entirely different regime of sea power here and could give us the ability to keep our subs underwater more than an hour. Those diesel subs back then, it's kind of laughable when we kind of think about it.
Starting point is 00:41:47 But he did that, he was a four star animal for 30 years. And we kept him in place and he built one of our last remaining asymmetric advantages. That's a founder personality. Gene Krantz, who built the Apollo program, Kelly Johnson, who built 41 airframes in his life, including the U2, which we still fly, and the Oxcart, then the SR-71.
Starting point is 00:42:06 You know, these people did incredible things. And that's the promise of America. We have these people who do incredible things. Don't squash them, don't crush them. Let their innovation thrive. And those people are in government. I think the reason JSOC was one of the first places to adopt us is you got a lot of founder personalities in JSOC.
Starting point is 00:42:26 That's how that institution works. That's what happens on the ground. You know, they are entrepreneurs in a different domain. And so then for us, it's like great when you have someone who has the creativity and the vision, I can build a software Ironman suit around them. I know how to make them a hundred times more lethal or effective in the business context than otherwise. When you have a manager who's just trying to follow the rules, you know, maybe you can make them 10% better. And you're just, you're kind of just rearranging
Starting point is 00:42:52 the deck chairs on the Titanic. There's this constant need for reinvention, right? Like we can't rest on our laurels. And it's these founder personalities that push that reinvention, who see what could be and see what is broken and close that gap. So it's enabling that.
Starting point is 00:43:08 Yeah. Love that. You know, you brought up the nuclear program in World War II, and I heard you downstairs talking a little bit about Operation Paperclip. That's something I've just been fascinated to hear about, and I haven't had the time to dive into. What was that?
Starting point is 00:43:24 So Operation Paperclip was our covert action to bring the very best scientists from Nazi Germany to the US to enable our defense program, in particular our rocket and space program. You can think about how hard that would be. These were our sworn enemies, these were horrible people, they did horrible things, they absolutely did, but they were without exception the world leaders in this capability.
Starting point is 00:43:50 And they could either fall into the hands of the Soviets, and that would only create more problems, or we could bring them here, hold our nose, and figure out how to rehabilitate them and use that for our own economic prosperity and national advantage and security. And we did that. But I think what's really instructive about Operation Paperclip is there was two competing programs. One was Operation Paperclip and the other one was called Fiat. Fiat was this idea that we don't need these dirty scientists.
Starting point is 00:44:17 Let's just steal the scientific papers. Let's take the technical documents and we'll be able to learn from the documents alone. It was a catastrophic failure. It turns out there is something special about the human, separate and apart from just what they wrote down on a piece of paper, that there's more to replicating these things than math. There is something about the human mind that's really relevant here. And it underscores this point around the founders and the primacy of people, which I think is
Starting point is 00:44:45 one of our greatest national resources as a country, the primacy of our people. How did we get them? Do you know anything about that? CIA operation. The reason it was called Paperclip is like that's how we told, so they would come in through the front door through State Department, which obviously would screen out Nazis. So you had to have some sort of cover, some sort of ability to do it. And we would have these files and we would resettle them.
Starting point is 00:45:09 This is how Huntsville got started. Hey, where can we put these people where it'll be a little low vis, low profile? And you know, we built a whole space industry in Huntsville, Alabama, around Werner von Braun and his colleagues. Wow. Wow. That's awesome. Well, you know, I had something that I ran across that I think a lot of people are fearful of. What is it? It's a predictive policing software. Are you, you guys are involved in that? We don't do predictive policing. We,
Starting point is 00:45:44 it's widely believed publicly we do,. We don't do predictive policing. It's widely believed publicly we do, but we don't. And it has probably the most scary name possible. I think a better way of thinking about it is the projects I've seen and been close to, it's about resource allocation. So where should I pre-position police to deter violence? It might be nice, like we look at the historic data, we see there's a lot of stabbings at this jack-in-the-box at 2 a.m. on weekends when the temperature is pleasant
Starting point is 00:46:13 enough for people to be outside roaming around. Okay, it might be nice to have a cop on that block, make the presence known, deter any bad actors and behavior. And that's been effective, where it's been possible. I think the branding of it has been really detrimental, but there is a clear correlation between the presence of policing and deterring violence. Um, the other aspect of it too, is just understanding, particularly with gang violence.
Starting point is 00:46:42 It's usually a cycle of retribution. This person got killed, okay, well, the family of the person that got killed, their gang knows who did it, there's going to be retaliation. So if you can figure out ahead of time, these relationships, you can have presence there to suppress the ability for retaliation to happen without consequence, which then hopefully gives time and space to quiet down the violence. Okay, so this is kind of similar to what you guys are doing,
Starting point is 00:47:10 just in a different outfit, and it's, once again, it's sifting through data and telling you where to allocate resources. Yeah. Interesting, interesting. Well, let's get into, you talked a lot about the bureaucracy in America and the challenges that it caused you guys to overcome. What do you think is wrong in America today?
Starting point is 00:47:34 What I think is wrong writ large with the world is that, let's just steel man it. The C-suite, the executives of these agencies or these companies, they have a steering wheel. They're trying to steer the ship. They're trying really hard, really diligently. But what they don't know is that steering wheel is like a prop from the Jungle Cruise Ride in Disneyland. It's not connected to anything. And then the people on the factory floor, metaphorical or actual factory floor, they
Starting point is 00:48:03 look up and they say, how can my leadership be so dumb? How can they not see what's actually happening here? And then you have all the layers in between. Part of the job is to make sure the steering wheel doesn't actually work and they're controlling and massaging the information as it goes from one place to another. So you can't see yourself if you're at the top. And then you have this sort of nihilism, it breeds this nihilism, like nothing works, we should tear it all down,
Starting point is 00:48:30 and sometimes that's the answer. But also you have to kind of wake up, there has to be some force waking up trying to make these institutions actually functional. And that's what we see our software doing. It's actually creating a steering wheel for the C-suite that is connected directly to the people who do the work. And that gives you a basis to understand what is happening. When I provide steering input, is it actually going to result in changes? How do I iterate on my policy and my strategy?
Starting point is 00:48:56 When I have a question like how many tanks are in the Army, I should know that in three seconds. And that lets me know, do I need more or not? And I can move on to the next problem. The next problem, if I have to wait three weeks to answer that, you can just see how the whole system just gets gunked up, nothing actually works. You don't understand that the quality on assembly
Starting point is 00:49:14 of doors is not working and therefore, we're gonna have problems and you know, small problems that can be solved become big problems that people will struggle to solve. This breeds a legitimation crisis. Like the legitimacy of our institutions solve become big problems that people will struggle to solve. This breeds a legitimation crisis. The legitimacy of our institutions is based on the fact that they work. How do you spend $11 billion on high-speed rail in California and have 1,600 feet of
Starting point is 00:49:35 track that goes nowhere? With a government institution that's really proud of how many jobs they created by doing this. You compare that to SpaceX. They've only spent $9.6 billion and they put more than 300 rockets into orbit. Or, you know, we spent $40 billion on rural broadband and have no rural broadband. We've spent $80 billion on electric chargers and I think we had like eight. You know, so there's something wrong. Part of the disease that
Starting point is 00:50:02 we're facing is this idea that all you need to do is cut a check. Like money will just solve the problem. You know, money enables the founder personalities. Money enables people to do the work. It's the front end of enabling the work and it's the back end. It's the reward for having done the work, but someone's got to do the work and you got to be really good at doing the work. And that's like, that's art.
Starting point is 00:50:24 That's craft. You know, it's not a commodity. good at doing the work. And that's like, that's art, that's craft. You know, it's not a commodity. It's not mindless. You don't just outsource it. And we need people to be proud of that and our efficacy in doing that. Hillsdale College is offering more than 40 free online courses. That's right. More than 40 free online courses.
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Starting point is 00:52:47 Patriot and get a free month of service with promo code srs. Switch to Patriot Mobile today and defend your freedom with every call and text you make. Visit patriotmobile.com slash srs or call 972 Patriot. You know you think about um these these like, I think the counterfactual, if you just say like, we didn't have Hyman Rikover, we had someone else, or we did, we had DATMA back then, and we rotated people in and out of driving the nuclear Navy every two or three years, we wouldn't have, it wouldn't have worked. And so when we look at so many of things, why does the F-35, we conceived of it in the mid 90s,
Starting point is 00:53:25 and it's just kind of working now, why should it take 30 years when Kelly Johnson could build as a single human at Skunk Works? He's the founder of Skunk Works. He could build 41 airframes in his career. He could build the U2 in 13 months. Do you see this changing? I do.
Starting point is 00:53:43 I mean, the reason I've been writing about it is that I'm wildly optimistic that we're on the verge of changing it. I feel like it's a little bit like a ketchup bottle. You shake it, you shake it, you shake it, nothing comes out and then it comes out all at once. This has been building and people can kind of feel this subconsciously. They can see it in the parts of the American economy that are working, which frankly are the only parts of the economy.
Starting point is 00:54:04 Look at Europe, nothing's actually working over there. So like the parts of the world economy that are working look like this. The parts that don't, you see it with when when Doge goes to DC, like there's a lot of noise certainly from the other side around Doge. But it's been amazing. You know, you have people who are the NBA athletes of technology walking around kind of realizing like, oh, that's a seventh grade basketball team over there. And you know, people who can call balls and strikes and, and conversely can be like that person in government is a genius.
Starting point is 00:54:35 Like they're not empowered. We need to empower. This is the person who actually knows the right answers. We pull that, you know, Doge has the ability to make those calls and to do so with taste, right? And that realignment is profoundly needed. Why do you think there is so much pushback on that? What are they scared of? I mean, this sounds, it just, I mean, we're going to save money. Things are going to become more efficient. I don't understand, I do not understand the pushback.
Starting point is 00:55:05 It's not supposed to work this way. We were following the playbook. We had a playbook, you know, there's a system. It's this belief in process over outcomes, you know, it's like, profane to have to blow up all the process and to believe that everything that we believed in the past didn't actually work or that there would be another way of organizing yourself that would be superior and would work better. And I think that's the subconscious undertone of the pushback. And then people, this, you know, it's like the best engineers are, like I said with Heim and Rick Obert, he was hated by the Navy, but he was a national treasure. And can you hold that contradiction that, okay, yes, the engineer said something that hurt your feelings, but they're right?
Starting point is 00:55:52 Can you hold that contradiction? Like, are you optimizing the outcome? Because if you care about the outcome, that's easy to get over. It's like, yeah, you're right. So it's ego. It's all ego. What a shame, man. I think the results will speak for themselves.
Starting point is 00:56:07 I've seen this so many times. Once the bureaucracy gets out the way, you can often solve these problems inside of 30 days. And I think that's the, I know those guys, that's what they're focused on every day, which is just delivering results, keeping their head down, delivering results. And I think they're a national treasure. How long ago could we have done this, do you think? From a technical perspective,
Starting point is 00:56:28 we could have done it 30 years ago. I think from a political will perspective, it took President Trump's political will and the mandate that he got with the election in order to make it happen. And you still see the amount of pushback that there is. Yeah, it's insane. I mean, like I said, I don't understand it.
Starting point is 00:56:45 It just seems like it's better for everybody if we do this. And there's just, I mean, people are just screaming on the rooftops about it. And to tie it back to founder mode, my own support for President Trump is, you know, when I had a three hour dinner with him and the presence of a few other folks, and what I felt profoundly was a founder personality. This is a person who was going to throw away the manager playbook, who actually had an intuitive understanding of the things that were broken and what to do about them. He's going to make contrarian calls and actually cares about the outcome.
Starting point is 00:57:16 I mean, speaking of President Trump, I mean, hot news right now is, you know, the tariffs just came out yesterday. I'm just curious, what are your thoughts on that? You worried about that at all? I'm not. I think there will be some volatility. I've been looking at the markets thinking about how much of this is the market reacting to the playbook.
Starting point is 00:57:39 It's like prophylaxis. Before the pain is even felt, they're like, but we take as an axiomatic given from our economic theory that this is a bad thing versus empirically, it's already resulted in badness. I think there's gonna be some chop between here and there, but the ultimate thing about the founder playbook, it's not that founders are always right, but it's that they are first intuitionally driven
Starting point is 00:58:02 and then often can only fully explain their intuition over time. And so there's you have to decide is the rebuttable presumption going to be we're going to lean in and try what the founder is saying or are we going to resist every step? Is the burden of proof such that I will not take any action until I perfectly understand everything or not? And I think no great things are accomplished that way. It's too slow, the OODA loop's too long, takes too long to bring everyone along. So I'm in a suspension of disbelief mode.
Starting point is 00:58:33 A lot of people worry the price. I'm worried the prices are gonna go up on everything. I mean, but. And I would say Scott Bassant is a very smart human, very smart macro trader, you know, part of an elite, there's probably like on the order of 10 people in the world like him or a current treasury secretary. And you know, I basically, it comes down to confidence in the team. I have a lot of confidence in the team.
Starting point is 00:59:01 Okay. You know, back to Palantir, what other countries are you guys working with? Well, the US and our allies is really our focus. So, you know, we have most of Western European intelligence organizations use our software. You know, some of that is, look, they're subscale in many ways. So I don't want to call it philanthropy, but it's the right thing to do. After the Bataclan massacre, we volunteered to help the French out massively. And they took, I think that was actually kind of a mark to market moment of we need the help.
Starting point is 00:59:33 A lot of these European countries have their own indigenous industrial base, which they're very proud of, but it's not at the level of the US industrial base. And so there's always a conflation of what part of my industrial base is a jobs program and what part is supposed to provide deterrence and lethality to protect my nation.
Starting point is 00:59:54 And so I think we're really happy with that level of work here, Australia, Japan, you know, the US and our allies. What do you think about, I mean, a lot of stuff going on in Taiwan right now? how How important is it? Should we even get involved in that? I think the way the way I think about it is that we want to make any sort of
Starting point is 01:00:21 kinetic or even non kinetic economic action against Taiwan, too risky for our counterparts in China. We want to push out. If the Davidson window ends at 27, our goal is to make that 28, then make it 29 and 30 and just keep making it harder and harder and too risky for the CCP to do anything. That's the optimality. I think it plays to a sort of, that's the primacy of winning.
Starting point is 01:00:51 It's a mindset that's like, we're not trying to solve the problem. We're trying to make sure they can't move on Taiwan. And how exact, could you be a little more descriptive on how would we do that? We have to make it not survivable or unpredictable of what the outcome is going to be. And I think the way the CCP works, the amount of certainty they're going to need is pretty high for an operation. And if they know exactly what we're going to do, they're going to figure out a counter plan.
Starting point is 01:01:22 They're the best at long range planning. They have a 50 year plan and it's actually really well thought through and they're good at that. But I think the fundamental American strength, like why I think we'll win in the end is that we're crazy. We don't know what we're going to do. When we get punched in the face, we don't even know what we're going to do. So how could they?
Starting point is 01:01:41 And so I think we have to kind of bring that craziness left of the balloon going up and make sure that the level of unpredictability that we're creating in that battle space means that we stay in competition and never get to crisis or conflict. How, I mean, how dependent are we on Taiwan for semiconductors and chips and all these type of things? Where the leading edge vary and I think that's the important part of our head strategy We have to you know, I heard that Intel and TSMC are announcing a new joint venture We need to bring this is part of the broader need for re-industrializing the nation
Starting point is 01:02:18 You know, we are we probably have two weeks of pharmaceutical supplies Most of these pharmaceuticals are made and the upstream ingredients, the APIs are made in China. If we just start going through the things we need to ensure our American prosperity, too many of them are in the hands of our lethal adversary. Yeah. I mean, China is a topic that we just continuously discuss here. So I mean, how worried do we need to be about China?
Starting point is 01:02:48 It seems like they just have us in all these different areas. They're manufacturing, you mentioned pharmaceuticals, damn near, it seems like our whole supply chain comes from there. And then there's the, they're involved with the, the, the drug, the drug trafficking coming out of Mexico. The reverse opium war, as I call it.
Starting point is 01:03:08 Yeah. I mean, they're buying up all our land. They're investing in our country. I mean, where are they? How, how are we behind China? I think we are, we do not yet have clarity of the threat amongst the American people. The national security community has, is not confused. They understand it is the priority threat.
Starting point is 01:03:34 But, and I think part of this might just come down to our media and our culture. What was the last movie you saw that showed America is a good guy and the CCP is the bad guy? You know, when I was a child, even the Worldwide Wrestling Federation had the Iron Shake. We had the Iranians as the back. That was the heel, right? There was a USSR heel. We had a very clear sense of who our adversaries were and that we were competing every day. If you look at the essential
Starting point is 01:03:59 Chinese propaganda, which we kind of imposed on ourselves with their ascendancy into the World Trade Organization, it's taken two forms. One is, we're so weak, there's nothing to worry about here. We're so weak. The other is, we've already won. There's nothing to worry about here because you've already lost the competition. But I think these two lines of propaganda, even though they seem contradictory, they have one thing in common, which is saying we're not competing because either we're irrelevant or we've already won. But it was designed to obfuscate the fact that we are competing every single day and viciously.
Starting point is 01:04:34 And that's the clarity that we need as the American people to realize that we're in a competition. Today, it's an economic competition. Let's do everything we can to make sure it remains only an economic competition that requires us to invest in can to make sure it remains only an economic competition that requires us to invest in deterrence. The Chinese were kind of surprised that we did nothing when they militarized the Spratly Islands after telling us to our face that they were not going to do it. And this is the part where I think their miscalculus comes in because the sort of Midwestern, positive sum, we're fair people. We seek peace. So, we'll take
Starting point is 01:05:08 you at your word and we'll treat you well. But at some point, you'll break that. And then, as one Admiral once told me, then the American OODA loop comes out, observe, overreact, destroy, apologize. And so how do we manage this so that we are actually conveying and managing the threat appropriately? I mean, where do we even start? I mean, we have all these politicians that have businesses over there. I've rattled off a bunch of other stuff that we're involved in.
Starting point is 01:05:42 I mean, what would happen? Where do we start? What would happen if they just cut our supply chain? I mean, it would be really bad. It would be very bad. And I mean, right now, it would also be very bad for them. And so, what are they doing? They're trying to produce their own indigenous chips, their own GPUs. They want their own Nvidia. We've curtailed their access. Of course, they're getting around sanction evasion.
Starting point is 01:06:12 They're buying it from Malaysia, buying from Singapore. But we've made it hard for them. We're creating dilemmas and problems. So they're trying to make themselves self-sufficient. We need to be investing in the same things along strategic areas. It can include our allies. Sometimes I worry that friend shoring is like a half measure. It's kind of an easy out. Like, yes, I'm not trying to exclude our allies from being part of the solution here, but everything that we can make at home in America, we should make at home in America. Now, the pathing really matters. When we were mobilizing for World War II, we took Bill Knudsen, a Danish emigre,
Starting point is 01:06:44 direct commissioned him a three-star general, and he was in charge of war mobilization. He had a lot of room and a lot of flexibility. And FDR actually put him in charge as a civilian in the lead, in 38, I think is when it happened. In 38, we have to remember, there was not consensus in America that we should be involved in this European matter. You know, the strong sense of we got to do this, we got this, we should be isolationist here. There's conflicting views. But what FDR realized is, it takes time to build factories. Like I need an option, like maybe we should be isolationist,
Starting point is 01:07:15 but what I definitely don't wanna do is be isolationist because the cupboard is bare. So how do we mobilize so that we can provide credible deterrent? And I think this is not about wartime mobilization. It's about mobilizing so that there is not a war. And that is really mobilizing our reindustrialization. And that was kind of a term.
Starting point is 01:07:35 I've been talking about this for five years now, but back then it seemed like a far off fantasy. People thought it was a little crazy. This term has entered the mainstream. You will see it on Fox News. Reindustrialization is a theme. There are serious people who are investing serious capital to do this. When we get the American private capital markets
Starting point is 01:07:51 behind this, which is starting to happen, it's going to be unstoppable. I mean, how, there's just so many sectors though, to build, I mean, pharmaceuticals, chips, all these, I mean, just everyday products. I mean, how are we or are we incentivizing entrepreneurs to start to build these factories? And to the point of confidence in your team, they're thinking about that. I've heard proposals that are around changing the depreciation and amortization schedule for factories and investments. So
Starting point is 01:08:25 how do I use the financial math to encourage the capital markets to view these things differently? Fundamental deregulation. How do we change NEPA? How do we change the regulation permitting processes so that it doesn't take you four years of waiting for a bureaucrat to tell you that you didn't dot the right I or cross the right T, but four minutes to get the approval to go. This is what unleashing American energy is about. What does a factory run on? Like the cost of energy is a material input to everything. It is the first input into all the goods
Starting point is 01:08:55 and services we buy. You bring the cost of energy down, it is a massive deflationary force. And we are the largest energy producer in the world. Like the resources we have, we need to just get out of our own way on this and not have a regressive mindset around like, oh, you know, using energy is bad. Actually the basis of modern civilization is energy and the more energy you use, the
Starting point is 01:09:17 better your standard of living is, the more things are possible. And I feel like that's not a contrarian thing to say anymore. You would have had pitchforks and protests if you said that five years ago. And now people are like, yeah, well, obviously that's true. How do we get after that? You see the tech community investing in things like fusion and fission and small modular reactors and people who recognize the reason to be super optimistic, particularly on energy, is that the AI companies are going to be crippled if they're not able
Starting point is 01:09:47 to have the energy that's needed to run their AI, which means they are investing in it themselves off their own balance sheet. They're not waiting for a utility to do this or that. They're going to be building energy production behind the meter. It's not even going to the grid. It's captive energy for their data center. A lot of that is just the bureaucratic BS of how long does it take. Oracle is just talking about how one state utility company was saying, oh, we could get you this energy in the 2030s. 2030s? It's like, we should be talking, we need to measure everything in months.
Starting point is 01:10:19 This is really the core thing that's going to solve our problems is being impatient. We need to be thinking about what can we be doing now? What can get done? That's what I love. The focus of this administration is very much, these are the things that must be delivered inside of this administration. That then changes how you think about solving these problems. It forces you to realize that the playbook and the process is totally screwed.
Starting point is 01:10:45 It's never gonna get there. It was never gonna work anyways, but now it's just clear it's not gonna live on the time. How do we reinvent ourselves in this moment to go make it work? What kind of energy should we be looking at? All types. Like, I mean, if you really look at, you know,
Starting point is 01:10:59 we need more natural gas. We need to make investments in nuclear. It's gonna take longer. We, sure, bring on more renewables, but look at the reliability around base load, the variability, the battery storage means that we need to be practical. So I'm not trying to favor one type over the other, but we're going to need more of all of these types of energy. Would you like to see more nuclear? Yes, I would.
Starting point is 01:11:24 Why? I think turning our back on the atom was one of the gravest mistakes for our rate of progress. Nuclear is largely expensive right now because we've regulated ourselves to death. The designs that we have are very safe. Hyman Rickover, when he was building the nuclear Navy, his safety standards were set so high, higher than civilian safety standards, because his litmus test was, my son will be in this sub.
Starting point is 01:11:56 How safe does it have to be for my son to be in this sub? If you compare that to the Soviet submariners, they had to, for every six months they served, they had six months of rest in Sochi to regenerate their bone marrow because they were irradiated to all hell. You know, so there was a way of doing it. You get the right people, the right design, the right founder mode leadership. This stuff is safe and it's abundant and it's clean and we can get it at scale and you can
Starting point is 01:12:21 build in all sorts of places. And we got, we have to be thinking about this from a competitive advantage perspective. I'm not sure it's a perfectly linear extrapolation, but in order for our shipbuilding to be competitive, you need more than just building government warships because to this point of a diversified R&D-based workforce that knows how to do these things, you need scale, right? As we all know, the one shipyard in China alone
Starting point is 01:12:48 has more than all the shipbuilding capacity of all the US combined, right? They have 250 times the shipbuilding capacity that we do. 250 times. Yeah. I'm not sure that we need to match them, but we need to be able to produce ships.
Starting point is 01:13:03 When we say we're gonna have two subs a year, we need to have two subs a year, not 1.1. You know, Palmer Lucky talked about this when I interviewed him. He said 250 times as well. But I am curious, what do those ships look like? Are they an equivalent to something that we make, or is it a shell that's basically a cargo ship? Do you have any insight on that?
Starting point is 01:13:27 I think it's all of the above. So they're not building 250 times the number of warships, but the ability to produce commercial ships enables them to drive down the cost of producing the warships and enables them to produce the warships at a speed that's relevant to building their navy up to be big enough to keep us out of the theater or to create dilemmas and problems that we have to deal with. And so I think we should be thinking about how what would be required, this is just a thought experiment, but what would be required for commercial shipping, ship construction in America to be competitive on the world stage? I think we have to take an asymmetric approach because, you know, if we're just doing labor versus labor, we're going to lose that.
Starting point is 01:14:09 But if we say, actually, we're going to build the first commercial nuclear cargo fleet, it's going to have the lowest cost of operation, it's going to be able to be in service much longer, and we're going to leverage the Navy's unique knowledge of how to do this in order to power this American prosperity that's going to drive up the volume in shipyards, drive up the capital requirements and the ability to leverage capital markets to build new shipyards, bigger shipyards, to do the facilitation. Facilitation.
Starting point is 01:14:36 Because right now, all that investment is on the American taxpayer. And that's why we struggle with it. Like how much should the taxpayer keep dumping into these shipyards? The answer is always more, but we're getting less for our money every single time. And the way out of this problem is to realize that monopsony, the government as a sole buyer is actually the problem.
Starting point is 01:14:55 That's how we got into this problem to begin with. The world used to be very different when the Berlin Wall still stood, just came down. Only 6% of major weapon system spending went to defense specialists. The other 94% went to what I call as dual purpose companies. Too much is said about dual use. You know, a missile is single use. You know, you need Palmer to build lethal effects that only the government is the buyer of. But dual purpose. Chrysler used to build cars and missiles. Ford built satellites until 1990. General Mills, the serial company, built torpedoes and inertial guidance
Starting point is 01:15:30 systems in their mechanics division. No shit. Everything they learned about building machinery to process serial, they were able to to leverage in the service of national security to make our warfighters more lethal. And what happened was that over time the government became such a difficult buyer to work with, all sorts of esoteric rules that only matter for the government, all sorts of auditing, all sorts of bureaucracy, that people tried to figure out how to exit that business. Wow.
Starting point is 01:16:00 And that started in the 70s. Boardrooms started talking about it. It accelerated in the 80s. And then when the Last Supper happened in 1993, there was this dinner in the 70s. The boardroom started talking about it. It accelerated in the 80s. And then when the Last Supper happened in 1993, there was this dinner in the Pentagon. We used to have 51 major defense primes. Well, they got the 15 largest together. They had a dinner and they said,
Starting point is 01:16:16 we need a peace dividend. We've won the Cold War. We're gonna slash defense spending. So for every dollar we used to spend, we're gonna spend 33 cents and it's gonna happen all at once. You guys are not all going to survive. You have our permission to consolidate, to merge, to try to find commercial lines of
Starting point is 01:16:33 business, like do what you need to do. And we let that happen until 1999 when we blocked the merger of Lockheed and Northrup. That was the last we said, okay, this is too much. So we went from 51 down to five. The popular narrative. What are the five? Northrop, Lockheed, GD, Boeing, and Raytheon. The popular narrative is this is when we lost competition in the industrial base.
Starting point is 01:17:00 51 down to five, you have less people to pick from. That definitely happened, but I don't think it's the dominant problem. The dominant problem is you lost, is really that the consolidation bred conformity. You had companies that were almost like test tube babies, artificial mergers, no single unified culture. They became essentially like almost like state owned enterprises, extensions of the government just doing the government's bidding. And there was not enough heresy, not enough crazy ideas that pushed the envelope, you
Starting point is 01:17:34 know, not enough Kelly Johnsons of the world. Like it drove out the founders. Founders cannot work in a conformist environment. They are heretics by their very nature. And drove the founders to other industries like tech. The reason for immense optimism in this moment. So that 6% today is 86%.
Starting point is 01:17:52 So the 6% that used to go to only defense specialists has ballooned into 86% that go to defense specialists. So these companies have very little commercial business. They are kind of on the Galapagos Islands. They've built specialist entities that only know how to sell and interact with the government. And this is part of our... So that's the key. The key is to learn how to sell and go through all the red tape to sell to the government.
Starting point is 01:18:19 You compare that to China. So in China, their primes, their equivalent of our big five, only 27% of their revenue comes from the PLA, the People's Liberation Army. The rest comes from commercial things they're selling. Unfortunately to us, so that cheap crap we're buying on Amazon is subsidizing lethality against potential lethality against future US service members. Wow. Wow. service members. Wow. Wow. That's just, that's enraging.
Starting point is 01:18:54 So let me give you cause for optimism. More than $120 billion of private capital has been deployed in the last three years in the service of national security, in the national interest. The founders are back. Palmer Lucky is an archetypal example of this. You talk about a heretic, right? We have people who are hardheaded, who are doing this more with a horizon that is beyond just what's going to happen this quarter.
Starting point is 01:19:17 They have a vision of what they're trying to create in the world, and there are hundreds of them. The department is open to working with them. There's a whole sea change, particularly with this administration, of recognizing the need for this reformation. And so we're starting to embrace that. I think we should, to the point of the ketchup bottle,
Starting point is 01:19:34 it is coming out all at once right now. It is the moment for us to seize the opportunity to fix ourselves. What are some of the other companies we should be looking at other than Ballentier and Anduril? Ceronic and their unmanned, their their their usvs the surface vessels. You have Epirus with anti-drone technology, counter-CUAS, Shield AI. What's Shield AI? Shield builds autonomous autonomy for fighter for fighter pilots. They flew the F-16 autonomously. They built the V-Bat, which is a drone that is,
Starting point is 01:20:08 so far seems like the primary US-made drone that is able to survive in the contested Russian EW environment in Ukraine. They, you know, and to the point of just getting out of our own way, like how do the Ukrainians decide what drones to buy? They, once a quarter, they have a field test. They create a test range. They jam the crap out of our own way. Like how do the Ukrainians decide what drones to buy? They, once a quarter, they have a field test. They create a test range.
Starting point is 01:20:28 They jam the crap out of the environment. Anyone who wants can show up, fly your stuff. If it doesn't fall out of the sky, we might buy it. And Shield showed up to one of these things and they were the only one who didn't fall out of the sky. No kidding. No requirements document, no red tape. The facts, this is the equivalent
Starting point is 01:20:50 of forward deployed engineering. You go to where the problem is and it either works or it doesn't work. You taste the steak, you either like it or you don't. I don't know, if you had to write a requirements document of what is required in a steak that you're going to like, it misses the essence of, I don't know, when I taste it, it either is great or it's not.
Starting point is 01:21:08 Yeah. Do you want to talk about Epirus a little bit? I love that company. Yeah, I mean, I think it was a great bet by Joe very early on to take an entirely different approach to this gallium-based semiconductor material to generate walls of energy that actually almost act like cyber effect.
Starting point is 01:21:26 So unlike, it's not one-to-one where you're firing a munition against a single drone, you're really putting a wall of energy. So it doesn't matter if it's one drone or a thousand drones, it's going to have the efficacy of being able to stop them and block them. Oh, so it's one wave. I thought these, I thought it was like simultaneously shooting out EMT pulses or whatever it is. Yeah, it's putting up an entire wall of energy. It's a very clever approach to solve the problem. I think we're going to need defense in depth with an approach like this. When you think about the UAS problem, it is a massive offset that our adversaries have against us. How many million dollar missiles can you shoot at $200 drones,
Starting point is 01:22:07 even $2,000 drones? You're going to lose that equation. And so we're going to need entirely different ways of thinking about this. Now, this challenges, so there's a question of how quickly can the force adapt these things and recognizing that you're not going to have just one answer, that you're going to actually have to have a series of answers that
Starting point is 01:22:24 mean that you're not afraid have just one answer, that you're gonna actually have to have a series of answers that mean that you're not afraid of putting your destroyers into a position to be relevant anymore. And that's the greatest threat. So like when I look at Ukraine, there are really three lessons I take away. And this is one of them. Like the Ukrainians, people often look and say,
Starting point is 01:22:41 wow, isn't it amazing that they sunk half the Russian black sea fleet, even though they don't have a Navy? And I say, no, no, no, it's because they didn't have a Navy. That's how they could conceive of an entirely different force structure that had Sea-Dos essentially, you know, these these these cheap explosive munition drones that were guideable with a Starlink. It's an entirely different conception of the problem that I think a big surface Navy would have, could get there eventually, but it's not going to get there as quickly or as dynamically. That's one lesson. The second one is we should have realized we had a five alarm fire
Starting point is 01:23:15 when we went through 10 years of 155 production in 10 weeks. And I think in World War II, we used to make 500,000 shells a month. And now we're struggling to make roughly one-tenth that, 65,000 or so. And we've had some time. Ukraine didn't happen last week. We've had some time. So what lessons can we take about what it's going to take to actually ramp up the industrial base as a consequence? And the lesson from that is that we got it wrong.
Starting point is 01:23:45 We thought the stockpile was the deterrent. If we could go to our adversaries and say, look at how much stuff we have sitting on the stock, they'd be scared. It's not. The deterrent is your ability to produce the stockpile. How fast you can make them. Yeah. And so we should never have cut down to minimum rate production.
Starting point is 01:24:03 All these ideas that were really born out of an economic fantasy that we could spend way less and still have as much security. Look, I think it's reasonable for democracy to debate, like how much do we wanna spend, but to believe you're not trading off security. Like we have to just account for all the trade-offs appropriately.
Starting point is 01:24:20 And I think if we all understood, like actually we're gonna change our spending profile and it's gonna mean that we're much less secure, we may have made different decisions along the way. So we shouldn't, you know, that is a hard earned lesson that the production, not the stockpiles deterrent, we shouldn't forget it. And it should shape everything. That's why you need something like an Andrew.
Starting point is 01:24:37 You need to be able to make 10,000 of these things, not 100. And when you think in your mind, oh, I'm only going to need a hundred, you start having all the bells and whistles. Like, how do we make this thing super exquisite, super fancy? It needs to do all these things. I'm only going to have a few of them, so let's make it like a Swiss army knife that can do everything. And then it turns out it takes eight years to build one of them and they're ungodly expensive. And then in the moment of need, you realize, I actually need a 10,000 of these. And so when you start realizing those trade-offs, like how can we cut production time by a fifth,
Starting point is 01:25:09 down to one fifth? Like it should take 20% as long to build these things. They should be affordable so we can be able to build a hundred times as many as we would historically have built. And now we're back to deterrent. Palantir's down and you guys are working with the border too, right? That's right. What are you guys doing down there? Yeah, so the work like that 10th Mountain is doing out of Fort Wichuca, the work that NORAD NorthCom does and supporting border operations, SouthCom. So all
Starting point is 01:25:36 of that is our MAVEN, our AI-driven operating system for the Defense Department. In addition to that, we have a a longstanding relationship with ICE, which actually started in 2011 when, I think it was 2011, maybe 2010, when Jaime Zabata was assassinated in Mexico, who's an ICE agent. Young 32-year-old American, and we surged in to help them out. We had been talking, to the point of bureaucracy and these crises, providing clarity, we had been talking to ICE for 12 months before that about starting to work with them who were stuck in the bureaucracy of how does one procure these things, how does one buy these things.
Starting point is 01:26:13 After that assassination, we got a call from one of the field agents. We were up and running in 11 hours. Wow. And we were a big part of responding to Operation Fallen Heroes, what that's called, and a longstanding relationship with them, born out of doing right by these service members after that. And now I think there's a much bigger role. There's of course border, there's immigration, these are two sides, a lot has happened. I think a lot has improved on the border.
Starting point is 01:26:40 We've gone down from roughly, in the prior administration, 2000 getaways a day to less than 80 a day now. So that border is getting sealed. And I think the bulk of the effort will turn to an immigration problem of how do we manage the illegals who are here and the deportation operations around that. What do you think we should do about that? Well, I think we're starting in the right place. Anyone who is a violent offender, it's hard to understand. I saw a clip from JD that I thought was pretty good, which is it's hard to even understand
Starting point is 01:27:14 what's on the other side of this. So why should we not be deporting gang members, violent offenders, people who have committed crimes who have no right to be here? How is that in the interest of the American people? Now I think it's a large scale operation just given what's actually happened here. How are we going to do it? If you think the numbers are between 10 and 20 million illegals, there's a question of how you actually are going to do that.
Starting point is 01:27:38 How much treasure can you spend? How do you do this as efficiently as possible? And so I think starting with precise information, that actually borrows a lot of the lessons that we have from the commercial side, it's a value chain optimization. Okay, where do I have the pension capacity? Where do I have logistics on flights? How do I do this as efficiently as possible in a way that provides the most incremental lift to the American people?
Starting point is 01:28:02 And I think that clearly starts with violent offenders and areas that matter. What's working down there? I mean, getting into the nitty gritty down on the border. I mean, how was it, how did we seal it off so fast? I think a lot of it is, I shouldn't say a lot. First, it's important that people realize we're taking the border seriously. That alone is a deterrent effect
Starting point is 01:28:24 to trying to cross the border. So what do you think's gonna happen on the other side? If the subtle messaging was nothing, actually just come, like you basically have an open border. So now, like, oh, it's gonna be really hard for you when you're on this side here, and you should be really worried that you might be deported at any single moment.
Starting point is 01:28:43 It's like, well, maybe I shouldn't come. So that's one step. Two, I think designating the cartels, there's a supply chain behind helping people get here. Designating them as terrorist organizations has changed the calculus as well. It's kind of changed the economics for the bad actors and what they want to be involved with. So I think it's probably overdetermined, like there's a number of factors, but I wouldn't underestimate how important it is that people realize like we're serious about this as a precondition. Let's take a quick break. Sure.
Starting point is 01:29:12 When we come back, I want to talk about the future of warfare. Okay. You sign up for something, forget about it after the trial ends, then you're charged month after month after month. The subscriptions are there, but you're not using them. 85% of people have at least one paid subscription going unused every month. Thanks to Rocket Money,
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Starting point is 01:33:13 Helixsleep.com slash SRS. All right, we're back from the break. We're gonna talk about the future of warfare, but I want to dive a little bit more into the reverse opium war. Can you go into that? Yeah. So we had the opium war where really the Chinese felt like a lot of drugs were flooding into China.
Starting point is 01:33:40 The reverse opium war is the Chinese are funding and enabling fentanyl precursors to be shipped to Mexico to then be funneled into our country. We lose at least 100,000 Americans to this war every year. It is an ungodly casualty rate, and it's not just happening on its own. And if this was, if we were losing even a fraction of this number of people to kinetic attacks, we would have a radically different posture to what's happening here. I think some of this is our own conflicted
Starting point is 01:34:18 and I think retrograde feelings of, is it the fault of the person who's using the drug? But you have to really step back and recognize the environment that's, what is enabling all of this to happen? It's a tragedy at a big scale. And I think obviously the cartels bear a lot of responsibility,
Starting point is 01:34:36 but these precursors are coming from somewhere and the Chinese have so much control over their economy, if they didn't want it to go, it wouldn't go. And I think they view it as part of their national interest to undermine us from the inside Wow So how long ago was the opium war? Was that the 1800s was that long ago? Yeah And what what what why were we doing it? It was just it was expansion Yeah. And what would, why were we doing it?
Starting point is 01:35:05 It was just, it was expansion. You know, it was economic expansion where people were trying to trade with China at the time. You had the collapse of the historic dynasty, the beginning of the century of humiliation. And it was kind of an outgrowth of unbridled economic expansion. There was a market for it. I think it was largely the British that's supplying it. Maybe it was coming up from Afghanistan, as I recall.
Starting point is 01:35:32 And it undermined the Chinese people. You had lots of people who were addicted to opium. It undermined their productivity. And I think that's why it's the reverse opium war. And we were pushing that. I think largely the British, but I think we were a minor part of it. Why? Why were we pushing it? I don't know.
Starting point is 01:35:50 And so this long later, I mean, this is because of that. Yeah. Well, is it because of that or I think more it is an asymmetric way of weakening us. It's an asymmetric way of doing it. It's pretty cheap if you think about, like if you thought about cost per kill, it's pretty cheap. It disintegrates society, it weakens families, it causes a lot of trauma, it weakens our will. It distracts us from doing the things we need to do around our economic
Starting point is 01:36:26 prosperity, around reindustrialization, around taking them seriously as a threat. One other thing I want to get to before we go into the future of warfare is we were talking about Operation Paperclip later. And so just downstairs, I just had a thought, I mean, should we be doing that today? We should. I've been trying to socialize this idea. And I think, I don't know if we're at a point of having the political will. Operation Paperclip 2 should really be around re-industrialization.
Starting point is 01:36:56 If you think about German Mittelstand companies, that's like these middle tier, high skilled manufacturing companies. I think they're kind of somewhat lost in Germany today. If you look at what happened in Germany, the big companies sold out the German economy to the Chinese, BASF, big chemical company. Most of their factories now are in China, not in Germany. Volkswagen and the investments they've made in China.
Starting point is 01:37:23 But that was never the perspective of the middle tier German manufacturer. Most of these companies are family owned. They're hundreds of years old and been in the family consistently. They're high skilled. It's not commodity stuff, high art, high trade. You know, maybe some of them want to move their manufacturing to America. Maybe we should enable that. Maybe there are, we should be basically, if you generalize this concept, you have entrepreneurs highly skilled who make things that are not commodity, hard to make anywhere in the world, let alone here. And we can marry them up with the deepest, richest capital markets in the world, which exists in America. How do we help them build their business, create employment and drive our national security by re-industrializing America?
Starting point is 01:38:11 Damn. I mean, who all would you, who all should we be targeting? Is there anybody that's making defense tech or, or anything that we should be snagging up and bringing? I would, uh, you know, you'd have to heavily vet them, but I think we should be thinking pretty seriously about disaffected Chinese that we can be pulling over. You get a little two-fer for that, you know, weakening them and strengthening us. And then the surrounding areas like Taiwanese entrepreneurs, Japanese entrepreneurs, manufacturers
Starting point is 01:38:40 really. And then you have a belt of these folks in Europe, some in France, a lot in Germany, maybe even a few of them a little bit in Eastern Europe. But we should be taking the cream of the crop who are doing these things in new and novel ways and bringing them here. While the main effort should be investing in the founders who are here in the area around El Segundo, where we have this revival of American manufacturing happening, doing it in different ways. And I think it's worth double clicking into that because, you know, the conventional view
Starting point is 01:39:13 of efficient manufacturing is that you have this very distributed supply chain. Everyone makes one part and these supply chains go really deep. And what that's done is it's hauled out the knowledge from the buyer. So if you're if you're at the top of the stack and you're building jet engines, you know, you don't even understand your supply chain. You just you just think you're buying something. We'd like we've kind of retarded your mind in terms of how deeply you understand the product that you're building.
Starting point is 01:39:37 You're just ordering parts and essentially assembling them. That's not what Elon did. You know, he vertically integrated. He builds the whole rocket engine himself. And that means he can control and reduce the number of parts. He can say, hey, you know, these three parts should be combined because it'll be more efficient. And that's how you get the asymmetric advantage and the leaps, the ability to innovate on these things.
Starting point is 01:39:57 And so that's where I say, it's not that we're not good at making things in this country, it's that the old way of doing it is not competitive anymore. We need this new way, much more vertically integrated, much more creative. His R&D engineers at SpaceX sit on the factory floor of assembly. Usually these are thought of as two totally different things. You have people who design the parts, you have people who assemble the parts. But actually, if the engineers can see what's happening in assembly that's causing it to be slow, what's causing quality issues, it might change how you design the parts. And so how are they going to observe that if they're not physically sitting together?
Starting point is 01:40:34 It sounds so simple, but it speaks to the cultural thing and it's resonant with forward deployed engineering, right? So how do we leverage this uniquely American perspective on doing these things to just get back to being the best in the world at doing it again. You're starting this conversation. How are you doing that? I'm talking to colleagues in the national security community about it to see if there's a way of doing it. I'm also trying to just do it through the front door.
Starting point is 01:40:57 Are there companies in particular where we can provide capital to reinvigorate it? The easy place to start is in the US. You have a lot of these mid-tier suppliers. They are actually family owned. The next generation maybe doesn't want to continue the business. Because the government has been such a promiscuous buyer, so unpredictable in demand,
Starting point is 01:41:18 they haven't had the economic reason to invest in capitalizing their facilities to do much more. There've been boom and bust cycles around this. But if you can buy a bunch of these up and aggregate scale, particularly in a thematic line where it's like, actually, these three parts are related, and I could actually make it one part, and I could deliver the part more cheaply, generate more value. He's like, how do you get the math to work out? But I think we could just start here and start filling in the holes that we have with capabilities and technologies from allies.
Starting point is 01:41:47 Yeah, you know, I mean, there was a lot of blow, was it the H-1B visas, a lot of blow back, that was something I was scratching my head on for a long time going like, I don't see what the problem is if we take the world's best and consolidate them here in our country. And I mean, I mean, I mean, to be honest, you're an example of that, you know? I'll take both sides of that. I feel like I really do. I have a view of it, which is few people should argue with this idea of taking the world's best, but so much of the H1B program has also been abused to take average.
Starting point is 01:42:29 And so then that kind of, you lose the moral high ground on the entirety of the program. Gotcha. And so yeah, that's what's amazing about America, that we can continue to incorporate the world's best who want to come here, who believe that America is a shining city on the hill, who want to assimilate, who want to be American. But we have to do so in a way that also is clear-eyed about our economic prosperity,
Starting point is 01:42:52 that we're doing this in the service of the American people. It's not just that we want them to come here and be prosperous. As a consequence of them being prosperous, they're creating jobs, they're creating innovation, they're creating economic security. And I think large swaths of the program are used by certain companies to essentially hire cheap labor they probably could have been hiring here and should be hiring here. And so, you know, both things can be true. There have been abuses and we want the very best to be here. And then something else that you touched on that I wanted to dive in, fusion.
Starting point is 01:43:30 What is fusion? Well, fusion, so fission is how do you split the atom. Fission, excuse me. So, so fission, nuclear fission is how do you split the atom to generate power. Fusion is what our sun does, which is how do you like jam hydrogen molecules together to create helium, but in doing so it also releases energy, huge amounts of energy. We don't have commercial-grade fusion yet, that's more R&D. But fission is a tried and true technology. All of our, all the nuclear that when we think about nuclear, we're really talking about
Starting point is 01:44:01 fission. And we are experimenting with what's called small modular reactors. How do you go from what is otherwise a huge $30 billion multi-decade power plant and make these things smaller, more modular? They're essentially pre-assembled so you can put them where you need them. They require less infrastructure,
Starting point is 01:44:22 substantially less time to build, and the designs are modern in a way that it's default safe. You don't have a risk of a meltdown. The physics just don't work the same way that these legacy old systems do, which frankly we've had the technology for a while, but because of our understandable fear around it, we backed away from the atom. It became politically, we just started investing in other things.
Starting point is 01:44:46 I mean, how, so you were saying that companies are basically producing their own power supplies. I mean, how far do you think this goes? Do you think that communities or even, even households will have their own power supply eventually? I think it'll be harder for households to do. I'm hoping that the tech company's enormous appetite for cheap power is going to provide the necessary demand stimulus to the economy to go build these things again and provide the
Starting point is 01:45:20 necessary stimulus for the government to reform the permitting process so that we can be clear-eyed and focused on the cost of power, the time it takes to build these things. But you're going to need, you know, talk about another industry that lacks founders. These public utilities are basically also run like state-owned enterprises. Right? So where is that innovation going to come from? Well, it's going to come from the small modular reactor company or the non-traditional power
Starting point is 01:45:44 provider who's behind the meter, that means that they're just providing their power directly to this data center. They're not trying to put it on the grid for everyone else to use. So there's less regulation, less bureaucratic coordination as a consequence of doing that. But by doing that, eventually that power is going to be there. And any excess power, you're going to want to connect to the grid at some point. So that's going to drive the stimulus to modernize the grid infrastructure as well. We've really under-invested in the grid.
Starting point is 01:46:12 We probably have a couple trillion dollars of investment we need to make, but we haven't been able to spin this chicken or egg thing. As we get economic value out of being, hopefully, the world leader in the application of AI, I think it will make the other side of the equation clear of why the modernization needs to happen. I mean, I would love to see that happen, but I mean, what do you think the... You're going up against a big machine with the utilities and how... With all the lobbying that goes on and all that
Starting point is 01:46:46 kind of stuff, I mean, how is that even possible? Step one is competition. You know, I like to quip it at some fundamental level, you either believe in free markets or you don't. And especially when you look at the government having post-Cold War, like everyone has given up on communism, including the Russians and the Chinese, except for Cuba and the US government essentially Like we have five-year centralized plans and DoD we call it the fight app Like literally we have a five-year plan that looks very very Soviet in terms of how we think the world's gonna work It's this centrally unplanned approach. So if we can start building stuff behind the grid behind the behind the meter and then start building stuff behind the grid, behind the meter.
Starting point is 01:47:25 And if we can do the permitting reform that's necessary that this administration is focused on, it's going to enable new entrants to start creating power and reduce the monopoly that historically the utilities have had, which as a theory of change means like, they have to react to this. So they're either going to slowly find themselves
Starting point is 01:47:44 shriveling and shrinking, or they're gonna reinvigorate themselves and show up to compete and be like, okay, these guys were the first movers and we can do it. There's kind of a theory of the economy that's actually at any given epoch, there's only maybe five to 10 live players, founder-driven institutions, really innovative,
Starting point is 01:48:02 they set the pace, they define what's possible. And the other companies in the economy are sort of mimetically copying, they're imitating them. And that's okay, because it provides the necessary stimulus for the whole thing to kind of work. And I think the problem we found ourselves in, let's say the last 20 years, is outside of tech largely, there have been no live players. These parts of the economy have kind of shrunk and shriveled and become, they're only dead players.
Starting point is 01:48:31 And so the reinjection of some live players is how we'll reinvigorate this. Andral is a live player for hardware defense primes, right? And the other primes have to respond to that. And that if you're gonna have hope in them, some of them may not, but the ones who wanna survive are gonna respond to that. And that if you're going to have hope in them, some of them may not, but the ones who want to survive are going to respond to that. Similarly in utilities, the small modular reactor companies, the upstarts are going
Starting point is 01:48:53 to be the live players that drive the change. And this, I feel like it's such an exciting time because you start to see the emergence of these live players. People are coming out of their shell and cocoon and you can point to things that are worth investing in. The capital markets are starting to see that. They're starting to put capital behind these founders. It's a great time for the American revival. I mean, wouldn't the utility companies just buy the smaller companies and bury them? What usually happens is at first you just laugh at them.
Starting point is 01:49:26 So we're in this phase of like, well, it's never going to work. You know, the fish is in water, the fish doesn't understand what could possibly be outside the water. So, you know, yeah, for the utility company and the rules they live by and the bureaucracy they've ensconced themselves in, it is never going to work. They couldn't do it today, you know, but these guys are throwing away the rule book. They're not going to follow the same rules and subject themselves to the same bureaucracy and have the same slow decision makingbook. They're not going to follow the same rules and subject themselves to the same bureaucracy and have the same slow decision making process. They're going to do it differently.
Starting point is 01:49:49 And once this starts working, they're going to have to respond. This is so you know, three of the five Andrew co founders worked for me, you know, and they are world class talent. In my interaction with some of the Primes, you know, the thing they love to say is something like, Andrew is like the tyrannos of defense. Andrew is a fraud. And I was really scratching my head. It's like, why do they believe this? It's obviously not true, just to be 100% clear. It's like, obviously not true. These guys are crushing it. And I, my conclusion was, it's
Starting point is 01:50:24 because they can't imagine of a different way of doing it. Therefore, if there's a company doing it a different way, it must be a fraud. It can't work. So as Andrew starts to just keep crushing it out there, they will realize there's a different way. They will have to realize there's a different way of doing it. They'll have to respond to these things. And that's the reinvention stimulus that the economy needs. Makes sense, makes sense. All right, let's move into the future of warfare. What's it look like?
Starting point is 01:50:54 I think it both looks exactly like the past and completely different. So the part that's exactly like the past is, I think that the kind of fundamentals of the OODA loop, that it is about decision advantage and speed is the same thing. Those principles are not changing. The most valuable application of technology then is going to be towards that end. So why is lethal autonomy so valuable?
Starting point is 01:51:20 You could say we've had that for a while. If you're flying in a fighter jet, it is your computer that is telling you that there is an enemy on your radar that you can't see. You're trusting the computer. That sounds like autonomy to me. And then when you release, when you press fire control there, the kind of terminal guidance is happening through an autonomous system, through the computer on the projectile. Okay, so now we're talking about, we just, let's
Starting point is 01:51:45 just start there. It's a difference of kind, I'm sorry, it's not a difference of kind, it's a difference of degree. We already have systems like this, we're just talking about supercharging it, doing substantially more with it. And what is the more? The more is a much shorter decision-making lifecycle at much greater scale. And you start to see that with these first player FPV drones. I think the Russians are losing roughly 1,500 people a day to these little drones that Ukrainians are flying. So at some point-
Starting point is 01:52:17 1,500 people a day? Wow. It's tough. That's effective. So if you start thinking about that, it's like, well, that's the equivalent of small arms really. It's like part of the innovation now is, okay, this drone has become the equivalent of small arms, but doctrinally, and that's how the Ukrainians treat it. It's like the E3, E4 who has fire control on that weapon, right?
Starting point is 01:52:41 But for us, we're not at war, we haven't changed our doctrine. We would think of the authorities on that as something the equivalent of a tomahawk, as like a cruise missile, right? It's going to go way up the chain. And of course, if the balloon goes up, we'll throw all that away and we'll reinvent our doctrine. But I think we should be getting ahead of that now and start thinking about what are small arms now? Cause they're not, it's not just your M4. So that's one piece of it. And then that, I think that also implies that the, the fighting force is going to have to be more technical.
Starting point is 01:53:14 They're not going to have to be coders, but the responsibility, just like, you know, if you're going through a green beret qualification, you learn everything about the gun, you know how to assemble it, disassemble it, well, they're gonna be that level of proficiency you're gonna need for a set of technical capabilities that are gonna be decisive on the battle space. You know, and that it's gonna extend to electronic warfare and cyber attacks
Starting point is 01:53:38 and space-based access and communication all the way through to the end lethal effects. I do think we're going to have to invest in, and this is where you need the outside tech mentality in kind of an Apple-like experience here. You know, yesterday when I was at BRAG, part of this capability exercise that General Braga put on talking to the different MOSs, you know, the special ops medic was like, my job is the best job. You know ops medic was like, my job is the best job. The weapons officer, my job is the best job. Well, the commo guy was like, my job is the worst job.
Starting point is 01:54:12 When everything works, no one even knows I'm around. And the second thing, stop working, it's all my fault. And what I saw in that was cognitive burden. Basically, how often does your internet go down at home? How often do you have to think about these things? Like the amount of investment, your iPhone just kind of works. And we are doing a great disservice to these combo officers
Starting point is 01:54:36 or NCOs by the burden we place on them to have to manage these things versus what our technology could actually be doing. So we have to redraw that front line so they can actually focus on the decisions that make the beer taste better, so to speak. The decisions that actually matter on the battle space as opposed to the things that set the conditions so that you can even think about those things. You know, I talked to Palmer a lot about this too, and I'm just curious your thoughts.
Starting point is 01:55:00 How much of the military right now is obsolete with all the new tech and all the autonomous vehicles and weaponry? I think there's no doubt that a meaningful portion is. The question is, how do you know what that portion is? And I think there's a fair amount of good debate that needs to happen about that. Let's take the tank. Some people think the tank's obsolete. I'm not so sure the tank's obsolete.
Starting point is 01:55:25 Maybe it's obsolete on the first island chain. There's a question of what are the conditions around which you need these things and how would you reinvent the hardware to make it relevant? I view that as a productive competitive stimulus. Everyone who owns this platform should be thinking about why is my platform still relevant? But what the initial bureaucratic impulse is to say is to not say why, but just to dig in and say it is relevant. You just don't understand.
Starting point is 01:55:51 I need to protect the program. I need to protect this rice bowl that I have. And maybe the tank of the future has to be different than the tank of the past. The way that we employ it may have to be different or may not. But that's something that you have to earn that opinion. You have to prove that out. We don't have enough competing force structures. You know, it would be better if there was a group
Starting point is 01:56:12 who was thinking about the future relevancy of the tank and a group trying to make the tank irrelevant. You know, and that's what I saw with the Ukrainians not having a Navy, which is they could conceive of this completely differently. You know, maybe we should have a Navy one and a Navy two. It's a thought experiment. I wouldn't literally do it that way, but you can see how you need kind of these oppositional
Starting point is 01:56:31 forces. There's a reason the tank was invented by the UK Royal Navy, not by the UK's land forces. The tank was anathema to them. It was heterodox to the platforms that they already had, and they viewed it as unnecessary and wrong. And can you imagine, they would have lost World War I without it. What about personnel?
Starting point is 01:56:53 I think that's probably one of the most important reforms. First of all, the person is the program. So stop thinking about these programs as independent of, do you have the right human to lead this? And by the way, once you get the right human, don't let them leave. We know this, we're the most important things. Like if you, the head of the nuclear reactor program in the Navy, it's an eight-year gig. As you well know, most gigs in the military, they're like two to three years.
Starting point is 01:57:18 There's a reason we made it an eight-year gig, because there's increasing returns to expertise and it's a highly complicated thing and you need continuity there. I actually think in reality there's many more things that look like that where you need continuity. If you're in a role for two to three years, you don't even know you've made a mistake, let alone had the opportunity to learn from a mistake. When I think about the 19 years plus I've been at Pounder, I have screwed so many things up and I've had the ability to learn from all those things
Starting point is 01:57:45 to make it better and better. It's just compounded over time. If you somehow had someone do my role where we were just swapping every two to three years, I can't even imagine how much further behind we would have been. That's one aspect of personnel. The second aspect is with AI and the AI revolution, people think, oh, it's going to make the median person better. That's true. But it's going to make the very best person superhuman. And so in a lethal context and defense context, that means that's the
Starting point is 01:58:17 only thing that matters. Like who are the very best people? How do we give them the decision advantage to win? And that then, as a consequence, you have to think about who are your best people. I'll tell you one of the combatant commands, I won't get into all the details, but one of the combatant commands, there is a major, prior police officer, joined the service late, army major, he does the work of a hundred people, no shit, a hundred people, kinetic strikes around the world that are being driven by his work. I don't think the military has ever been in a position where it's that asymmetric. And so that has a lot of consequences
Starting point is 01:58:50 for your force structure and how you think about who should be in what role. What are you gonna lose when that person rotates out? You know? And then our ability, you know, because the more we took, when I said earlier, Palantir thinks of itself as a artist colony as opposed to a factory. We didn't talk about what is a factory. because the more we took, when I said earlier, Palantir thinks of itself as a artist colony
Starting point is 01:59:05 as opposed to a factory, we didn't talk about what is a factory? To me, a factory is a place where you have this linear progression, you have this chart. Here's the ladder you climb, here are the rules, here are the experiences, everything's mapped out. And that gives the human a lot of comfort, it gives the institution comfort,
Starting point is 01:59:20 it's easy to understand what to do, you don't have to really think that hard about what comes next, or answer hard questions like am I growing or any of these things that people have legitimate questions around. But what it does is deprives you of the sense of what is this human really good at? What are they world class at? What is their superpowers and how do I maximize that use for lethality? You can see that sort of thinking in JSOC, smaller community, more primacy to the outcomes
Starting point is 01:59:44 that need to be driven, higher stakes. But the big machine loses that qualitative sense. And so I think that's going to be really important. When I think about the most important projects we've been involved with, there are really a handful of commanders who were so insightful. I think they might be offended to hear me describe them this way, but they are what we would call in Silicon Valley product managers.
Starting point is 02:00:08 They are the people with the vision of what they need the software to do so that they can accomplish this thing in the world. And they would not see it as below them. Three star, four star generals. They would not see it as below them to sit there and critique your mocks of and tell you these pixels are wrong. I needed to be like this because they recognize that what they're getting is an Iron Man suit a software Iron Man suit that allows them to control the battle space it's got to fit them
Starting point is 02:00:30 perfectly it's got to be it's got to fit their mind this is they are in this context founder personalities right and as a consequence they can get so much done and I think so much goes wrong when you're trying to think about your software solution independent of the human who's going to be wielding it and operating the principle, the founder. You know, I understand all that, but I want to dive into as well as, I mean, with all these new autonomous vehicles and like I said, when I talked to Palmer, he was talking about
Starting point is 02:01:00 basically putting an AI brain in a lot of the stuff that we already use, tanks, planes tanks planes subs all that kind of stuff and so I mean just for a tank for example I don't don't know a lot about tanks but I mean I would imagine I think it takes what bright three to five people to operate one and so when we put these these AI brains in all of these vehicles and turn them into autonomous vehicles. I mean, how much of the military personnel is that going to cut out? I think it's one example of it. It'll cut out. It'll make you a much smaller, leaner fighting force, for sure.
Starting point is 02:01:42 So let's just call it half. You can get, you know, you can probably make everything half as big and as lethal or more lethal than before. There's so many things with tanks, like how do you clear the range of fire? You know, the commander has to pop their head up, they have to somehow get on a phone and tell the other tanks, like when the soldiers
Starting point is 02:02:01 are dismounting, you don't wanna be in the field of fire. You know, that should all be software. No one should be picking up a phone, the tank should be able to communicate to the other tanks, like when the soldiers are dismounting, you don't want to be in the field of fire, that should all be software. No one should be picking up a phone, the tank should be able to communicate to the other tanks. And it's just like, that's just, so once you start like unpacking the layers of how many things we're just covering down with human labor, you start to realize like,
Starting point is 02:02:17 oh, this stuff's going to go away. And in fact, the humans are doing it slow. We're doing it at the speed that humans can do it. And we make mistakes when we're doing it. And it has a huge training burden to do it. So how long does it take to even ramp people up, changes? So I think it's going to be a pretty dramatic impact. You have to earn it though.
Starting point is 02:02:36 You know, you have to kind of ship these innovations to the operating fighting force. And no one will be faster to adopt this than the fighting force. It makes them more survivable, more lethal. There's one project we did at NTC at Fort Irwin. The division was roaming around the desert, you know, division, big army formation, but using the latest technology just like this, they were able to get their division footprint down to 26 people. So instead of the normal 400 plus people you need, a big jock, big screens, which means the enemy can see you, you're pretty immobile, you're not gonna be survivable, you're gonna be blown to smithereens.
Starting point is 02:03:15 26 people, the red team could not find them in the desert. No kidding. You know, I don't want to come across like I think that's a bad thing. I think, I mean, I don't want my kids going to war. I've been there and I don't want to come across like I think that's a bad thing. I think, I mean, I don't want my kids going to war. I've been there and I don't want them to have to do that. And so, I mean, I think it's a good thing. It's, I just, I'm just trying to wrap my head around, you know, I mean, I think there's
Starting point is 02:03:36 450,000 active duty in the army. I don't know how many of them are war fighters, but I mean, I would, I mean, would you need anybody in any of these vehicles? Well, you definitely want first contact to be made by entities that have no blood in their system, right? Like the front line of troops, but there's also the front line of robots, and that should be further front. And we need to be thinking about how we have less risk to force as a consequence and have,
Starting point is 02:04:04 you know, improved mission outcomes by doing this. I do think, though, that the tail is where the immense opportunity is. So I have the tooth, the tail here. So yes, it's going to make the tooth sharper and you're going to need fewer teeth. But the tail is enormous. You have more people in the acquisition corps than you do in the Marine core. And the human processes that we use to support all of this, it's both very latent and slow. It obfuscates indirectly just because humans are touching and massaging the data, like what's actually going on. And we need to integrate that. When I think about the most important missing strategic asset to the US government from a deterrence perspective. It is an integrated view from the factory floor
Starting point is 02:04:48 to the foxhole. And by that, I really mean, let's articulate the threats we care about under the timelines of credit. These are the foxhole scenarios that matter to us. This is the national defense strategy. This is who we're trying to deter and when, and work that backwards to based on what I'm spending and building, does any of that stuff matter?
Starting point is 02:05:08 Will it be there in time? You know, and I think the department of defense is the only institution I know of that has divided up supply and demand. You know, the process of integrating supply and demand is usually the beating heart of a commercial company. This sales and operation planning process, people have different names for it.
Starting point is 02:05:25 In the department, we ask the services to go build things. That's the supply side. And we ask the combatant commanders to do the war fighting. That's the demand side. They have to respond to real-world events. They don't really get that much of a vote in terms of what's happening here. We have a lot of control over what's happening here. We have ideas about the scenarios in the world.
Starting point is 02:05:43 We care about making sure it don't happen. How do we integrate these things? So that we understand like, you know what? It actually would be better to buy a less capable weapon system. We can make seven times faster at a lower price point because the other stuff's not gonna be ready in a time that's relevant to anyone, right?
Starting point is 02:05:58 It's just running headless by doing this. And I think if you had that, it becomes the first way you can have meaningful conversations like, yes, I know there are jobs in your district, but do you understand how you're actually going to sacrifice American prosperity? We are going to lose over a hundred jobs in your district. And I think that becomes, now you've turned the tables on what is politically survivable. With Palantir, you guys aren't only in software. You also have vehicles you're making, the Titan, Tenebrous.
Starting point is 02:06:30 I mean, could you go into those a little bit? Yeah, the Titan truck is a satellite ground station on wheels that's really about enabling long-range precision fires. So how can we do deep sensing of the battle space to enable precision fires of the enemy deep in their territory? What I think is really cool about the Titan program is that we were the first software company to win as a prime contractor. It is a physical thing.
Starting point is 02:06:56 We still don't think of ourselves as a hardware company. We built a team of super friends of power horses, Andral, Northrop Grumman, L3 Harris, Sierra Nevada. They're helping us build this thing. But what makes the truck in some sense is a commodity. What's in the shelter is what's doing the AI that's finding the enemy on the battle space, using national technical means, using satellite communications,
Starting point is 02:07:23 doing the processing, processing, exploitation and dissemination on board of this with a two-man crew, so very, very efficient, and enabling then the transmission to the gun line to actually go destroy and close with the enemy. And building this around the software first. What does the software need to do? That is our lethal capability. Then how do I make it as amazing for the warfighter as possible as a consequence? Rather than doing
Starting point is 02:07:50 what we've done backwards so many times is we have this hardware platform and then we're constrained by what software can we put in there and it's not good enough and it's not adaptable and there's not enough compute. You kind of designed it backwards. This is one of the paradoxes. So if you're a true historical hardware company, you can think about like building a house. If you're building a house, you gotta build the foundation first. You are entirely limited by the foundation.
Starting point is 02:08:16 Software is not like that. With software, you gotta build the kitchen first and you build the rest of the house around the main thing. And now we're starting to see that culture enter into defense. That's what Tesla does, right? That's what SpaceX does. So in defense, we're starting to see that happen
Starting point is 02:08:31 where people are taking very sophisticated next, the next generation of platforms and they're starting with the software first approach. What does this platform need to do? What are the threats? What do I need to be able to sense? What do I need to be able to affect? Can I even build that compute first? Which by the way, goes
Starting point is 02:08:48 pretty quickly that you can measure that in months, not years, not certainly not decades. Once I get that right, now I have the constraints around what I can build my airframe or my land vehicle or my submersible around because I know it can accomplish the essential mission that I need and has the capabilities to do it. And you don't end up in these situations like with the frigate where you buy the frigate, you make a bunch of changes along the way and you realize it won't float. You know, it's like the whole thing is for not because you didn't start with the software based approach.
Starting point is 02:09:16 Mm hmm. What about the boat? Yeah. So the same. The same concepts apply to surface vessels and submersibles and to airframes, actually, where you're really thinking about, what do I, you know, our big challenge in the Pacific is, how do we get inside the weapon engagement zone? You know, the enemy has been able to really build up a lot of air defenses and hypersonics and they can threaten and hold us at risk when we're inside
Starting point is 02:09:44 of this engagement zone, we don't have sufficient defenses. So maybe we need to build a bunch of relatively attritable, but certainly autonomous systems that don't have risks to force, that enable us to do the sensing we need to create the maneuver space we need. And so there with Tenebrous,
Starting point is 02:10:00 it's really about using commoditized approaches to building ships so that we're not reliant on an industrial base that can't absorb more capacity, and then adding the mission-specific payloads that are highly exquisite and highly classified and modular at the point of need. And using that is, you know, it's not just about this ship or this family of ships, but really a family of capabilities, whether it's space, air, sea, land, that give you this sort of software-defined approach to warfare. Does anybody else have these type of technologies? Any adversaries? This is, you know, I think software is a unique American strength, and it really comes down
Starting point is 02:10:43 to culture. Because it's not about, look, there are smart people everywhere in the world. But think about it this way, there are zero Indian enterprise software companies that are competitive on the world stage. There are zero Chinese enterprise software companies. Europe only has a handful, and they're pretty legacy. So what is it about America
Starting point is 02:11:04 that we have all this software expertise and it's cultural? Sometimes people look at Silicon Valley and they think maybe we imported this culture from India or Israel. We didn't. We imported it from Iowa. It came from Bob Noyce, who is the co-founder of Intel, the co-inventor of the transistor. It comes from a Midwestern culture, a willingness to play positive sum games, open communication, transparency, a belief in working together.
Starting point is 02:11:29 He brought that with him. The word open door policy, noise coin that. It's a noisism. There's a way in which this Silicon Valley doesn't even understand how much we are the progeny of this noise and this Noisy in culture. And that's really permeated so much of how we organize ourselves to be able to build software at a scale that is world beating by a long margin. Like the second best country in the world is Israel and they can build canoes, not aircraft carriers. They can't get the culture of
Starting point is 02:11:56 collaboration to scale to the, even close to the level that we can. This is what you see like most Israeli founders, when they found their second company, they moved to New York to start it because you're just not going to get it. You're not going to get the big success that you want otherwise. And so then I think we should lean into that. Like, you're not going to win the war by shooting bits at your adversary. At the end of the day, you have to bend metal. Like hardware is a critical capability, but we should do it asymmetrically. Our hardware should be way smarter than our adversaries.
Starting point is 02:12:23 That's something that we have the capability uniquely to do. Even when you think about DeepSeek, which we have this Chinese AI model, you can see two things from it. One, they couldn't have built that model without essentially distilling or stealing this from OpenAI. So you needed the requisite OpenAI investment. And then two, they did come up with a couple of very clever software optimizations, like novel innovative things that represent meaningful refinements on what's been happening here. But it is a refinement that as a precondition required,
Starting point is 02:12:57 it's not a coincidence that all of the frontier AI labs are within 50 miles, a 50 mile radius in San Francisco, right? That density of talent and the culture that's required to organize around it is an American superiority. What could go wrong with this stuff? I mean, could an adversary potentially hack into our hardware and software? As much as they could today. You know, I don't think it changes the nature of the risks.
Starting point is 02:13:26 The risks are the same. We still have to care about cyber vulnerability and protecting ourselves and the adversaries will have those vulnerabilities as well. I think the biggest risk is really of inaction. This is why I was very frustrated around the constant AI safety conversations. Because one, I think it was grossly overdone.
Starting point is 02:13:43 We're really far away from, if you understand the technology, like the Skynet fear is wildly overblown and almost like a conspiracy just to slow everything down. But the other thing is it's really about who is the best at implementing these things, right? You can think about AI supply and demand. The supply side is the model. These models, they took billions of dollars to build.
Starting point is 02:14:05 They can write poetry, they can do all these things, but who cares? Where's the economic value or the decision advantage on the battle space? That's the demand side. So, who's leading the world at implementing these things? AIG just discussed at their investor day earlier this week how they've used 85 AI agents built in Palantir to automate their insurance underwriting. So when you look at a solution like that, you could say, okay, it used to take three weeks,
Starting point is 02:14:30 very manual, now it takes one hour. There's a huge labor savings there. But that's not actually what's valuable about it. What's valuable about it is they used to only be able to price roughly 10% of the customer requests because it was just too much work. Now they can price 100%. They can take the best and least risky assets
Starting point is 02:14:48 and underwrite that business and leave the rest for their competitors. So you're actually saddling your competitors with risks they probably shouldn't be taking because you have a decision advantage in doing that. And so we need to be the best at implementing AI for economic value, whether that's on the battle space or in our companies.
Starting point is 02:15:05 And I think there's a lot of promise in doing that right now. If you look at Europe, they're still a little bit more than a little bit. They're asleep at the wheel at the pace at which they're willing to move the way they want to think about it. The consensus driving versus you feel it in the American commercial sector. People have rolled up their sleeves. They are getting in. They're experimenting.
Starting point is 02:15:22 They're iterating like AI is just not something you can think your way through. It's something you have to have a lot of experience and as a consequence, develop expertise in. Who else should we be watching out for other than China and the cartels? I think we should be thinking about the coalition China's able to build. Could Iran be nearly as successful as they are if the Chinese
Starting point is 02:15:46 were not buying oil from them? What role did China have in stepping in to support the Russian and Russian operations? Pretty substantial. Why are North Korean soldiers on the front lines in the Ukraine conflict? What is the trade that's happening? North Korea's submarine fleet, they have a lot of submarines, I think on the order of 300, but they're all diesel, they're all loud, they're all legacy. We have to make sure that there isn't proliferation of certain technologies that are going to make them harder to see, that it might be sort of the deal, the trade that's happening behind the scenes here. So we have this kind of coalition of adversaries. Might be a weak coalition,
Starting point is 02:16:25 they might have their own frictions between them, but I think at the root of it is the CCP trying to be the sole superpower in the world and undermine Western prosperity. And then they're gonna have a coalition of folks who share that interest as well. Are you worried about BRICS at all? Are you familiar with BRICS?
Starting point is 02:16:45 Yeah. Yeah, I view that as an economic threat to our prosperity. Of course, we have the exorbitant privileges, as sometimes it's called, of the dollar as a reserve currency. And we need to fight to maintain that. And the economic alliances that enable people to undermine that will weaken us. Let's talk about, wrapping up the interview here, the premise of winning. Defense reformation thesis number five, the only requirement is winning.
Starting point is 02:17:20 We have come up with the most Byzantine acquisition process you can possibly imagine where you have to somehow generate a requirement of what it is that you want to buy. You were sharing with me that you bought a $10 skateboard helmet as your combat helmet when you went to work because the other one was too heavy and uncomfortable and it didn't work. It didn't work. So you know you have your of requirements, what it is that you need to go out there and fight and whatever was standard issue was just not it. And actually yesterday at Bragg soldiers were telling me they'd go out on mission, come back with marks on their head, helmets uncomfortable, it's crushing them. Well one of the requirements for the legacy combat helmet was that it must be able to withstand a humvee, one wheel of a humvee being on top of it. Who decided that was the
Starting point is 02:18:10 requirement? You know, how realistic is that as the end scenario? So what you get is an overly heavy helmet that is not comfortable and doesn't work and probably costs a lot as missions happen. So this requirements process is divorced from the actual application. And I think we need to just remember this requirements process is an approximation of what we think we need. The only thing that matters is winning. So can we work backwards from what it is that is actually winning and where the requirements get in the way, recognize that was a suggestion.
Starting point is 02:18:43 Get rid of that shit. Don't be so wedded to the playbook that you don't have the common recognize that was a suggestion. Get rid of that shit. Don't be so wedded to the playbook that you don't have the common sense God gave a goat. When you need to bend the rule to do the right thing, you got to do that. We've wrapped ourselves up around this stuff and it leads to all sorts of programs that have met all the requirements and are irrelevant. We spend all sorts of national treasure on doing that. You know, this is where I feel like if you integrate the person as the program, you know, Hyman Rickover could decide his own requirements as he's building the sub.
Starting point is 02:19:14 Gene Kranz could change what he thought he needed for Apollo is getting done. Or John Boyd on the F-16. Like the original requirements document for the F-16 was seven pages. That's how condensed and, you know, as Mark Twain has that quote, I didn't have time to write you a short letter, so I wrote you a long one. When you get these 2000 page requirements document, almost rebuttably, you should think this is crap. Why is this going to work? No one's had the clarity of thought of what we really need and what's essential to getting this done.
Starting point is 02:19:44 You know, I love that you are going to brag and it sounds like you guys are kind of integrating in all over the place. And I mean, I wish I would have had that when I was in, you know, where we could just articulate what we needed and what we wanted and somebody like you guys could implement it and get it back to us.
Starting point is 02:20:03 And how open is, I don't know if you guys are dealing it and get it back to us and and how open is But I don't know. I don't know if you guys are dealing. I'm sure you are how open is Secretary head set to making that happen incredibly open I mean, I think he did the point of common sense like this is a common sense administration They completely recognize the the value of dual purpose companies people are putting their own capital at risk to build things And you know if the customer doesn't like it, guess own capital at risk to build things and you know, if the customer doesn't like it, guess what? You're out your capital.
Starting point is 02:20:28 You know, that's a you problem. But yeah, that's how American industry works. You show up, you invest, you build things, you lean in, you have conviction. And I think the new team completely understands the value of a commercial first approach, understands the value of speed, we don't have time to lose,
Starting point is 02:20:43 the idea that things should get cheaper over time, not more expensive over time. It's an opportunity to reimagine the industrial base, and I think there's a tremendous amount of support. Are you guys integrating in with law enforcement at all? Maybe on the border. The law enforcement is not a market that we've historically focused on,
Starting point is 02:21:03 just given how many there are, but I think Make America Safe Again is a huge priority. So Justice Department, so federal law enforcement will be a focus for us as we turn to the next kind of couple years here. Probably not state and locals. Well, Sean, I think that pretty much wraps us up, unless there's anything I'm missing.
Starting point is 02:21:23 No, I think we covered everything. Thank you, Sean. Thank you. I really appreciate you coming. It's a ton of fun. Fascinating. So, thank you. Absolutely.
Starting point is 02:21:32 NBA veteran Jim Jackson takes you on the court. You get a chance to dig into my 14 year career in the NBA and also get the input from the people that will be joining. Charles Barkley. I'm excited to be on your podcast man, it's an honor. Spike Lee, entrepreneur, filmmaker, Academy Award winner. Nixon! So, now you see, I got you!
Starting point is 02:22:05 But also how sports brings life, passion, music, all of this together. The Jim Jackson Show, part of the Rich Eisen Podcast Network. Follow and listen on your favorite platform.

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