The Chris Cuomo Project - Ian Bremmer on Trump’s Second Term and America’s Future

Episode Date: January 14, 2025

Ian Bremmer (President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media) joins Chris Cuomo to discuss Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2025 report, highlighting the biggest global challenges expected to shape the year ahead. From rising tensions with China and immigration battles to the influence of media algorithms and oligarchs, Bremmer breaks down the political, economic, and societal risks that could define Trump’s second term and reshape America’s role on the global stage. Follow and subscribe to The Chris Cuomo Project on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube for new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday: https://linktr.ee/cuomoproject Join Chris Ad-Free On Substack: http://thechriscuomoproject.substack.com Support our sponsors: Oracle Right now, Oracle is offering to cut your current cloud bill in HALF if you move to OCI. For new US customers with minimum financial commitment. Offer ends March 31st. See if your company qualifies for this special offer at Oracle.com/CCP iRestore Our listeners get $625 off their iRestore Elite when you use promo code chris at iRestorelaser.com. That’s $625 off your iRestore Elite at irestore laser dot com with promo code chris. Hair loss is frustrating. You don’t have to fight it alone thanks to iRestore. Select Quote Get the right life insurance for YOU, for LESS, at selectquote.com/chrisc AG1 And AG1 is offering new subscribers a FREE $76 gift when you sign up. You’ll get a Welcome Kit, a bottle of D3K2 AND 5 free travel packs in your first box. So make sure to check out DrinkAG1.com/ccp to get this offer! Start your new year on a healthier note. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We need a better mind mind and I have one. I'm Chris Cuomo, welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group. One of the most wired, best sourced, most experienced guys when it comes to international politics. And he has laid out, and you'll see the link right on the screen

so you can look at it yourself. His group, the Eurasia Report, of what are the challenges, what to look for, my favorite is not what to look for, but what may mislead you into a full sense of understanding. Very cool stuff, very happy to have him to look at what we could be dealing with in the year ahead

and how it could go. be dealing with in the year ahead and how it could go. Ian Bremmer, what a great resource. Thank you very much for being with us. Thank you so much for all the help you've given me everywhere I've been over the years. I appreciate you very much. Good to see you again, Chris. And happy new year. Thank you, brother.

What do you make of Mark Zuckerberg saying that you can't fact check, he's gonna do community notes, and the reason it doesn't work is because of you and me and legacy media and the culture of inclusion? First, can I be catty for a second, Chris? Sure. I'm not sure I would've worn an $800,000 watch on the video when I was making that announcement.

Just me. Just me. You know, I want to be more of a man of the people. But that's okay. That's okay. I mean, I just, you know, given that Mag has just had this big fight between like globalists and like, you know, sort of the anti-deep state types, I'm not sure who Mark wants to be. but that's okay. He looks better generally speaking. He's more engaged. It looks like less of a robot. So it's okay. He tells good time obviously. But no, more seriously, and I wish that weren't the thing,

but it is the thing. So I just kind of feel like I have to, I've got to bring it up. But look, he is doing what everyone is doing in that space. Look, he is doing what everyone is doing in that space. You saw all of the CEOs both personally, as well as their companies, they're hiring up in Trump world, they're sort of donating up in Trump world.

So you think it's a Trump move, not just a play to culture, play to type, and just to get away from accountability? Well, I mean, Mark had a very, very warm relationship with Jared Kushner and with the president back when he was there the first time around, and they were in contact on a very regular basis. I feel like, I mean, look, I don't know

who true Mark Zuckerberg is other than I want my company to be the most successful on the planet. I don't know if he has a personal alignment with more free speech or more protection of sort of dangerous content. I honestly don't know where he is on that spectrum. I know that he's really good at aligning his organization and his financial interests with people in power.

And that aligns closely with my experience with many of the most wealthy and powerful people I've ever met. What do you make of this selling point that we are all the media now and organizations are all bad and they don't need to do any fact-checking, we should just leave it to the market? Well, I think that Elon is now the media, number one. I think when he says that he's the media, he's right. He's got 200 million followers.

He controls the algorithms. He's obviously promoting his content relentlessly and also people that are ideologically aligned with him. So I think that he is the media, right? And I think that he is telling all of his ardent supporters that you are the media. Look, I think that the media has made big mistakes. Mainstream media, you've talked about this a lot, Chris.

You know, you've been in it. You've been in the trenches. They don't know how to handle Trump. They still don't. They get their knickers in a twist over all sorts of issues that they shouldn't be paying as much attention to. And they don't focus as much on issues that matter to people, issues that matter to actual constituents.

The Democrats, frankly, lost in part because they did the same damn thing, right? I mean, like all up in identity politics and the university and urban progressives and forgetting about real Americans. So yeah, I think that there's something to that. But the idea that the average Joe in the United States is capable of doing their own research and will get you a better, more thoughtful understanding of what's really happening is, of course, on its face insane. The idea that RFK is capable of replacing actual scientists is on its face insane. I think that I think you need to focus on people with real expertise, not an agenda, right?

But people that are trying to do their damnedest to help us all understand the world. And that requires some good filtering. It requires, you know, responsible stewardship. And frankly, a lot of the mainstream media has not been doing responsible stewardship. And frankly, a lot of the mainstream media has not been doing responsible stewardship of their journalists over the course of the past couple decades.

Yeah, I don't disagree with your assessment. And I guess what bothers me about it is that he's clearly pandering. And in part, he's pandering to a part of the media that I think is not part of the solution that I think is not part of the solution. I think it's part of the problem. I'm fine with independent outlets, assuming that they have the capabilities

to be of value other than opinion if they're gonna be taken as legitimate sources. GZERO and what you're doing is a tremendous asset. I like what Barry's doing with the free press. I like Taibia, I like Schellenberger. There are people who are legit people. You can agree and disagree with where they're coming from, but that's different than some guy in a ski hat

who's part of this, you know, new right, don't trust the legacy media, don't trust this, don't trust that. Listen to me and they're putting out opinions masked as facts and they're making everybody else the bad guy, and it's really working for their pockets, right? They're getting followings, but people aren't getting that.

I was so not surprised when some of those guys on the right got tripped up by that Russian propaganda vehicle where they were only paying them to keep doing what they were already doing. That's how fucked up what they're doing is. You're damaging the country. You're stoking conspiracy theory. Please have at it.

And I really feel like that's good. Look, there's space for everybody. I'm here for a reason. I paid for this with my own money for a reason. But the idea that you don't need the Wall Street Journal, you got me on here at my kitchen table, is like, to me, really, really threatening to people getting to a better source of information.

Look, we're losing civil society. We need, not only do we need more sort of trusted sources for national media, we need more local media, right? We need trusted sources that are in your community. We need people spending more time with real human beings in their communities, in their families, their extended families. All of this is breaking down. If it were just a story about national media, I wouldn't worry so much. It's more that people are feeling more disconnected from pretty much everything. And the only thing that is connecting them are the algorithms. And the algorithms aren't trying

to help the people. The algorithms are productizing the people. They're profiting from their clicks. The algorithms don't care about you being a responsible citizen at all. So that's the problem. Look, I don't have a problem with entrepreneurship. I am an entrepreneur, so are you, Chris. I believe in building a business. But I don't think that companies that are only in it for profits are ultimately going to be what gets us a better nation. I don't, and I worry about that.

This doesn't fit into your mainline assessment of risks of things that could happen this year, but does the Zuckerberg thing kind of maybe change your equation a little bit about what potential concerns you're watching out for? You know, actually it really does fit in, and it fits in when I talk about, when we talk about oligarchs and pitchforks. You know, I mean, I worry that the way that the United States is truly breaking down and the reason for it is not Democrats versus Republicans. Trump is the symptom of the deeper problem.

The deeper problem is that Americans think that they have a two tier system, people that are connected to power and people that are capable of spending those millions of dollars to get access to Trump no matter what, or in the case of Elon, $250 million plus all the algorithmic support, and people that can't. And for those that can't, they feel like they're left out. The democracy is not for them. Power is not for them. The educational system, the healthcare system, none of it is for them. And so what happens when you get these oligarchs? What happens when your country increasingly feels like a kleptocracy?

What happens is that you get people who believe that the only way that you can address it, that you can fix it, is outside the legal system, outside the ballot box. And for some people, was January 6th. And for some people that was cheering on Luigi Mangione, who gunned down the CEO of a company just a few blocks from where you and I live, Chris. And then we had people, like even establishment figures in the US, some of them that were saying in entertainment and in politics, that were saying,

oh, I understand what was behind this. What do you mean you understand? He killed somebody. So that's what happens. I think it's absolutely on point with the risks that we're talking about this year. Support for the Chris Cuomo project comes from select quote. So here I am in my mid fifties.

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slash ccp for the Chris Cuomo project and you can get this offer. That's drinkag1.com slash ccp and you can start your new year on a healthier note. Support for the Chris Cuomo project comes from AG1. Look, new year, new me, right? We're all going through it. I don't believe in resolutions. I believe the rent's due every day and you gotta do the right things every day. You need a routine and you have to stick with what works. And for me, AG1 is how I start my day. One and done.

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So make sure to check out drinkag1.com slash CCP for the Chris Cuomo project and you can get this offer. That's drinkag1.com slash CCP and you can start your new year on a healthier note. So set the table for us. I'm gonna put up the link for people to take a look. My favorite section of what Ian and his team put together are actually their red herrings.

You'll see if you go down a little bit, the red herrings, which are things. See, to me, I can usually pick up on the obvious as your basic mouth breather, but it's what someone like Ian sees that I may fall for and that is of a special value to me. So the red herrings are what I like, but set the table for people.

No, that's my favorite bit too. I think they're at the bottom of the report, but they're actually really important. And they're also optimistic. They say things that aren't gonna blow up on you. So I think we should start with that. Go ahead. What are the red herrings?

Now, for you guys who are watching this, red herring started as a legal term, but it is really an investigative term of when people used to be running away from authorities, they would take fish and rub it on things so that dogs would pick up the fish scent and start following that instead of them. That's what a red herring comes from.

So these are potential distractions. How do you see it? Yeah, so one distraction is all the people out there that says Trump, Trump's incompetent and he's going to fail. That all the stuff he's going to try, it's going to be chaos and he's not going to get anything done. We actually think he's going to have a lot of wins, a lot of successes in his administration for a few reasons, Chris. One, compared to his first term, the United States is much more powerful

than both its allies and its adversaries this time around. So, I mean, China economically is doing much worse. The Russians are in serious, severe decline. Iran has just lost its empire. It's in real trouble. Those are the adversaries and then its allies look at the South Korean political system Germany France Canada, they're in disarray So you've got a lot more countries that are looking at the US saying please please look I gotta find a way to cut a deal with this country with this guy. Um secondly Trump has

Consolidated a lot more power domestically when he the first time, he needed the Republican coattails. He needed Mike Pence. He needed Mattis and Pompeo. This time around, they need him. And so he's got loyalists around him. If you're a foreign leader, you can't say, oh, let me find Nikki Haley to work with because I don't like what Trump just said. No, you're going to have to actually deal with him.

There's also the fact that a lot of leaders around the world this time around actually like Trump. You know, Maloney from Italy was just in Mar-a-Lago. Trudeau just resigned. It's gonna be a conservative leader, Pierre-Paul Levin, all likelihood in Canada will be much more aligned with Trump. You got people like Millet in the G20 from Argentina, who was just in the summit meeting

before Trump was there yet. And he was like, every speaking point was as if it was Trump, not to mention Israel, the Gulf states and the rest. So he's got a lot more people that are actually aligned. And then finally, Chris, this is a much more dangerous environment than 2017. There are wars going on, the economy globally is more brittle. So a lot of countries are more scared

of screwing up their relationship with the United States. So for all of those reasons, whether or not you agree with his policies or what he's trying to do, a lot of what Trump says to these countries, he's gonna get deals. And I think that's underappreciated as people think that we're gonna see a replay of 2017 in 2025.

So that's a pretty significant herring. One other big herring that's worth talking about is that Europe is not about to fall apart despite all the pressure coming from the US, the fact that their economies are not doing well, the fact that they're defending themselves on the Russia front. But, you know, despite all of that, you've got a very strong new NATO Secretary General who's moving them to 3% of GDP spend for defense, and he's doing it outside the EU so that the Hungarians can't veto it. That means that by the end of the Trump administration, the Europeans will be spending about as much on defense as the Americans do, as a percentage, which nobody would have expected that five

years ago. You've got a very strong leadership of the EU. Ursula von der Leyen and people like Roberta Metzola, Kaia Callas, that are actually very, very strong and have a lot of support from across the European constituencies. Macron is very weak in terms of his domestic politics, but he's in charge of foreign policy, and he's not going to be challenged until 2027. Plus, the Germans just lost Schultz, and they're about to elect Friedrich Merz,

who is center-right and much more aligned with all of those leaders I just mentioned. So at the top, you actually have a Europe that's going to hold together reasonably well. Not only to be able to do deals with Trump, but if those deals don't work out, also able to credibly do tit-for-tat as opposed to Trump being able to pick individual leaders and countries off. So those are two things from frankly the most important democracies such as they are, the EU is the largest common market, the US is the most powerful country in the world today. In a world where we're always blaring headlines about how everything's going to fall apart,

I think it's useful for us to have a little bit of a reality check on how some of that stuff is going. What do you think he should take on first? Trump? You know, I would like him to take on first illegal immigration. Legislatively? Yeah, legislatively, but also in terms of ram... Also in terms of roundups of,

I mean, you know, return to Mexico, you know, policy 42, all of that sort of stuff. But also I think that, look, this is one of the big things that the Democrats failed at. They ignored the issue until it was way, way too late. They refused to recognize it really angered a lot of average Americans. And yes, it's going to cost the United States real money, because not only are these are

people that work for real cheap, but they're also taxpayers, right? I mean, Medicare, Social Security, local taxes, they're also consumers. So it's going to cost us to get rid of these illegal immigrants. But when you fill those jobs at a higher rate with regular Americans, that's a big deal. And if they could also go after the corporates in agriculture and in services and in construction that are hiring all these people use e-verify. We know how to do it. So it's not just hitting the illegals, but it's also hitting the corporates that have been taking advantage with their power position of these illegals.

I think that would just be a good thing for the country. We've got to help these people. But I don't see how the first part happens. I mean, the reason they're filling the jobs is, of course, the lower price point, but it's also because the jobs were open. And for these people, these outfits to pay what you'd have to pay Americans to do it brings you your $11 avocado. Yeah, prices are going to go up.

I agree, but those prices are going to be paid across the board, and some corporate profits are going to get squeezed. US stock market is at record levels right now. But if that means that you're getting, you're actually employing Americans at higher rates, those are jobs for Americans at higher rates. At the end of the day, I'm not really comfortable hiring non-citizens at below market rates

to do jobs when we have American citizens. I look, I think that Americans voted for this. And if that means that you're gonna, is it $11 avocado? And do I really care about people having avocado toast? No, I don't think I care. I don't think I care. Can we get, I mean, you know, have a couple more eggs.

But look, Lighthizer said this when he was US trade rep. He said, I would rather have a family have one television and two good jobs than no good jobs and three televisions. And we're acting up to, I'm deeply comfortable with that sentiment. He's from Ohio, middle class, lower class family that didn't really have much and watched how the community fell apart. JD Vance, sort of West Virginia, Ohio, Appalachia, same thing. Ian Bremmer, projects in Chelsea, Massachusetts. I grew up with a lot of the same people. I obviously managed to do very well for myself, but a lot of other people I grew up with a lot of the same people. I obviously managed to do very well for myself,

but a lot of other people I grew up with didn't. And I'm not comfortable telling those people, sorry, you suck, and you're just gonna have to deal with all these illegals coming in. I'm not comfortable with that at all. Do you think that the Democrats, if they're smart, run directly into the embrace of the Republicans and make this a joint effort? They better. Look, I mean, this is what the Europeans figured out a decade ago.

This was a right-wing policy, a far-right policy in Europe. You know, some of the people like Maloney's party and that she's linked up with in Italy and Angela Merkel, who I think was a very strong leader in many ways, but not on this at all, said, oh, bring them in. Bring in the Syrians, Verschiffen das. We can do this. And her citizens said, absolutely not. Legal immigrants into Germany, like Turks,

some of whom were in government, members of parliament, said, absolutely not. And so what you saw is that not only did the Germans get on board with this policy and the EU get on board with this policy, but even like labor in the UK is getting on board with this policy. So I think, you know, if Trump gets this right, he could actually force a broader coalition on an issue where the people have spoken. The people have spoken that they don't like all of this identity politics stuff. They don't like the transgender stuff being forced down their throats.

They don't like DEI and the corporations. They certainly don't like the bathrooms. They don't like it. They don't like, you know, sort of men that are women, you know, in competitive women's sports. They don't like it. They don't like sort of men that are women in competitive women's sports. They don't like it. And somehow Democrats got stuck with that issue. They also really don't like large numbers of illegal immigrants in their own cities.

And one of the smartest things the Republicans did, the ones that were experiencing all the problems in Arizona and Texas said, you know what? We're gonna bust them up to blue cities. Because why is it that we, by dint of geography, are the only ones that have to deal with this issue? And suddenly you had people with sanctuary cities, very sanctimonious people, very wealthy, comfortable people saying,

wait a second, you mean this means we're actually going to have... We're very happy with illegal immigrants in theory, but not in practice. Like you got to keep them farther away. The whole NIMBY situation, right? So I do feel like forcing the issue so that all of us Americans have to talk sense to each other is a very useful thing. What do you say to the Democrats who are going to get stuck? Forget about the problem of giving the Republicans the win. They know this issue helped beat them. What do you say to the Democrats who say, well, this is way too harsh. There's got to be amnesty provision.

You can't round up all the people anyway. So I'm not going to sign up for that. It can't even be done logistically. But, you know, the same sticking points of what has stopped comprehensive reform since the bill in 2005 and 2011, what do you say to them? Look, they can keep losing if they want to. But as I said, I would look at Europe.

I would look at the center left in Europe. And you're not going to get everyone. You may not be able to line up AOC and Rashida Tlaib. You may lose a few Dems on the left. Okay. That's okay. I mean, you know, for Republicans to get things done, sometimes they have to lose crazy Republicans on the right. That's okay. That's what compromise is all about. But the idea that, you know, Congress is going to refuse to work with Trump, I promise you,

Federman's not going to refuse to work with Trump. Last I checked, he's still a Democrat, right? There are others. So I think that the fact that even the Europeans can figure this out, I mean, they're not exactly entrepreneurial over there politically. You tell you tell me we can't that only the Europeans can do it. It doesn't seem right. Doesn't seem right. But as you and I both know, this can has gotten kicked down the road so many times.

Do you remember when Obama first got elected and they were talking about comprehensive reform and they were going to bring back, you know, that early deal that Manchin and all those guys worked on that was really a pretty solid deal. Yeah, absolutely. And it wound up being easier to do the ACA than it was for him to do this. Which is insane, right? Because when you think about how broken healthcare is in the United States. But maybe identity politics has shifted away from that battleground of us and them. Maybe the benefit of this perverse idea of forcing trans,

which is like the smallest slice of society that you can quantify to be a headline, is people have gotten off the, well, who's a real American, who isn't? And you have enough brown people who want reform as well, that maybe the Democrats see an avenue of opportunity here to work with the Republicans. At least what I keep telling them is, do you want Republicans to own this win? Because they're going to get it.

They're going to get immigration as their first legislation initiative, and they're going to have the numbers. They're just going to peel off a couple of you guys. That's all they need. That's all they need. And they're going to get it anyway. So do you want to be part of the win or watch them win it? That's what I've been saying.

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And Biden's had a lot of problems in foreign policy. China has not been one of them. He's managed to stabilize that relationship. And when I say he, I mean the administration. I mean, principally, Jake Sullivan and others working with him. Biden hasn't done all that much himself, but whatever, you know, that's true for Trump, too. And he's done it without giving anything away.

You know, it's not like he's bet the knee to the Chinese at all. In fact, we've seen tougher sanctions, tougher export controls on China. You know, even they're looking to ban TikTok, which Trump says he doesn't want to do. And they've managed to radically, by working on the relationship, opening 25 high-level channels of conversation between the US and China across the entire spectrum of the government,

including Mill Mill, the defense side, they've managed to stabilize their relationship. I fear that Trump is gonna break that. I fear that they're so hawkish on China, they're so focused on tariffs, they're so focused as well on China sending goods through third countries like Mexico and India and Vietnam, that they're going to hit China in the face really hard at a time when the Chinese are doing badly economically and they don't feel like they can lose space, and they're not going to have a deal that Trump will accept, and we're going to end

up in a trade war, and we might even end up in a cold war. I think that's for the United States. I mean, there are a lot of big dangers around the world, like in the Middle East, around Iran, and around Russia, and a whole bunch of other things. Mexico has its problems and tensions. But for the United States, something that will really affect us will be that. Well, it'll affect China more than it affects us. I mean, again, we're in the pole position. As I wrote in this report,

we are moving back to the law of the jungle. But in the jungle, the jungle is a dangerous place, but if you're the big gorilla, right, the jungle feels better, you know, in the jungle, the jungle is a dangerous place. But if you're the big gorilla, right, the jungle feels better for you. So, I mean, the United States is much less concerned. I talk about a G-Zero world, not a G-7, not a G-20, but G-Zero works hand in glove with America first. Right? And so I do think there's less at stake for the US from a security perspective, economic perspective, technological perspective than other countries. China is one place where Trump could really cause a lot of damage, including for Americans, if he goes down this path.

I'm told by a couple of Trump guys that the combination of Jared's influence on him, his relationship with Bibi, and almost deference to Bibi, is going to make him more hands off and let's say less urgent to make that situation end, because clearly Bibi doesn't want it to end anytime soon, and that his focus in terms of ending the war will begin with Ukraine, and that he believes he could sit Zelensky down and say, you're gonna give up a chunk of land to make this end, and your people will thank you for it. Do you believe in that preference structure,

and do you think he can make a deal? So, not completely. A couple places I'm gonna push back. I think you're right on Ukraine. He thinks that he can force Zelensky to sit down and get a deal done. Zelensky has already publicly made very clear that he understands that the time for negotiating is soon, in part because of Trump. And Macron's changed his tone on that in the last 24 hours, a lot of people have. And Zelensky is not in a great position. I mean, a year ago, you and I talked and I said, I thought they were going to get

partitioned. I'm not happy about it, but I thought that was where it was going. That's where it's going. But getting Putin to accept that is a different story. And Trump, I think, understands that this is going to be more challenging than he originally thought. This is not a 24-hour sort of slam dunk. And it may take a matter of months, and it may be a harder negotiation. He said that to friends. He has said that to Europeans, a few,

that he's had conversations with. A couple presidents, for example, that he's had conversations with a couple presidents, for example, that have given me downloads on their conversation with him. And he also made that post, I think, on Truth Social, where he said, and maybe China can help, on Ukraine, which again implies that he understands that this isn't something he's going to be able to do himself. He might want the Chinese to, you know, who also would like to see a ceasefire, so like get engaged directly, which is not a stupid idea on its face

and cuts against a little bit of the challenges I mentioned of US-China that we just talked about. So that's on the Russia-Ukraine side. In other words, I think Russia-Ukraine is a little bit harder than you just suggested or intimated. And on the Middle East side, I think that the Lebanon war, which is already a two-month temporary ceasefire, Israel has gotten what they want and Assad has fallen, which means the Iranians can't

get Hezbollah any more weapons through Syria. I think that that could easily become after Trump wins, they announce a permanent ceasefire and agreement. So boom, he's just ended a war. Didn't end the Gaza war, but he ended a Lebanon war. So that's kind of cool. Will he end the Gaza war? Will he be able to get the hostages out? He has said now on several occasions, there will be hell to pay for Hamas, how much more hell they can pay given what the Israelis have done to them. I fuck if I know, but there will be hell to pay if they don't let these hostages go. So maybe he's got to focus on it to a degree. I don't think he can do nothing. I don't think

he can just let it slide. And then, of course, the biggest question and the one that I've been focused on for 2025, the biggest risk this year is what happens with Iran. Because there are a lot of people in Trump world and a lot of people around Bibi in Israel that are saying, look, this is Iran's weakest period since the revolution, and we can take them out. And if we do, like they're our biggest enemy in the Middle East, the Iranian people would be our friends. We want to work with the Iranian people. You want to talk about a Nobel Peace Prize in the Middle East. Like this is the Peace Prize. This is everybody kumbaya. So let's, we got to see what happens there. At the very least, Trump is going to put a lot of economic pressure on this regime

in the early months, the Islamic Republic, and Bibi is going to hit him with espionage and critical infrastructure attacks and all the rest. So we'll see where that goes. Two things. I agree with you about Iran, although I guess the strategic concern is always who fills the void, right? If it's not Iran, who's the head of the snake? I've always believed the head of the snake is Saudi Arabia when it comes to exporting the Wahhabism form of extreme Islamism.

But I would argue much less so today than it's ago. Yeah. And it doesn't matter anyway, because the guy in charge in Saudi now is so tight with Trump that he's not going to go pick in a fight with Saudi Arabia. Not at all. In fact, I mean, it's much more likely you'll see that the Israelis and the Saudis eventually do that deal. Right.

Open negotiations, yeah. So, Iran, how do you sanction them and not punish the people so that you can keep the people on your side to overturn the regime? Or do you do something to take out the regime and then just leave it to the people to find something else? Look, that's always been the question. And you try to do things like freeze bank accounts of people connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

There's been North Korea questions around that too. The reality is that when the Iranians get a lot of money, somehow that money and weapons get to their proxies and supports terrorism. So I don't think that Trump is going to be very concerned about answering that question. I think rather it is there's a lot of oil that is being exported for discount through non-flagged tankers, and Trump is going to tell them to cut it out. He's going to stop them. He's going to sort of interdict them. And that might annoy the Chinese and annoy others. But at the end of the day, it's going to squeeze Iran. And Iran's economy

is already in freefall. They already have some of the most poll it's going to squeeze Iran. And Iran's economy is already in freefall. They already have some of the most polluted cities in the world because they're only able to burn really dirty fuel that they can get their hands on. You know, the people are not happy. There are armed insurrections in places like Balochistan and Sistan, some of which are ethnic minorities. This reminds me a lot of the Soviets in the late 80s. First, they lost all of the Eastern Bloc, and then they no longer had an economic story, they didn't have an ideological story,

and they were falling apart internally. There was a military in the Soviet Union willing to repress. That was the coup in August 1991, they failed. There is such a military, of course, in Iran. It's strong, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, but there's also a supreme leader that's 85 and ailing and no obvious direct successor for him. So, I think that, look, Assad fell a lot faster than a lot of people, including I thought. Right?

I mean, they were in place for some 50 years, and suddenly, you know, you've got a revolution, and I mean, the whole thing just implodes. We should not assume that if the Islamic Republic takes real direct pressure from the US, Israel, and others, that it is necessarily there for the long term. What do we do differently than when they killed Massa Amini and there was violence in the streets and people thought that it was a period of opportunity? What has to be done differently that wasn't done that time to help foster change? Look, it's clearly possible that the result of all of this

depredation is the Supreme Leader is forced out, the military takes full control, and it's even more repressive and brutal against its people. Absolutely possible. I mean, you know, blood in the streets can happen and does happen frequently when you have these sorts of revolutions. I would say that the United States and its experience with getting directly involved with these sorts of incidents has tended to go very badly. So, I mean, you know, provide

diplomatic support, provide humanitarian support. I mean, you know, say that you're enemies of this regime, sure. But I mean, you know, say that you're enemies of this regime. Sure. But I mean, send troops on the ground and provide support as mercenaries. No, I don't see Trump doing that at all. Yeah, me either. I don't, and I think that's the right call.

To that point of filling the void or what fills the void, how do you know that these guys who just kick Assad out will be better? Well, better I feel comfortable because Assad, let's keep in mind, was an ally of Iran. Right. He was facilitating the terrorist funding and support of Hezbollah to become the most powerful

non-state military in the world. He was overseeing massive production of Captegon, which is an incredibly dangerous drug and exporting it all over the world. Right? That's gone. So I am not to mention his incredible brutality against his own people. I am delighted that Assad is gone. It is an unvarnished win for everybody.

And that matters. Everybody that we care about, it's a win. But that does not mean that I have a lot of credibility yet for this new regime. And I mean, they have terrorist links and background. They have been incredibly hostile historically to minorities in the country, to women in the country. And although they're saying all the right things now, that doesn't mean to me that we should hold them just at their word. And it also doesn't mean to me that they're going to be capable of actually consolidating

authority and running a country. And right now we have over 2,000 US troops in Syria. I suspect Trump wants them out. When they leave, who's going to ensure that ISIS is in jail? Will it be the Kurds when the Americans have let the Kurds go and the Turks are actually on the ground punishing them on a daily basis militarily? Or will ISIS have a spot to try to create a new caliphate? That's plausible. It's plausible. I mean, would that be worse than what we've seen from Assad's regime? No, given the size and scale of what we'd seen from ISIS, and we'll probably have to

get involved again in some way, even if that's just long distance bombing and the rest. But this is not at all a resolved, stable situation, not close to that. So for the entire podcast, I'm gonna have the link up to the Eurasia group. And of course, that's Ian's outfit about how he outlines what he's looking for this year. And don't forget to look at all those red herrings. But I just wanna say again,

thank you very much for spending time with me, Ian. I'm always better for it. And I wish you the best for the new year. Chris, thanks a lot. It's great to see you, man. Ian Bremmer told you he is a real one. And now we know the questions and we'll see how they play them out. What will Trump decide to do? What will the Democrats decide to do? Who will the Republicans decide to be? And how will the rest of the world respond?

Well, we're in it together, my brothers and sisters. So let's get after it. Thank you for subscribing and following. I'll see you on News Nation, 8P, every weekday night. If you're an independent, where are your independents? Get the free agent gear. Show that you're not about some party. You're about policy.

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