The Chris Cuomo Project - Why Voter Enthusiasm Could Decide This Election

Episode Date: September 10, 2024

Chris Cuomo breaks down the high stakes of this upcoming election and why voter enthusiasm could be the key to victory. With data from Gallup, he explores the impact of grievance-driven enthusiasm, the role of undecided voters, and how both Trump and Harris are vying for control of the narrative. Cuomo emphasizes the importance of understanding the motivations behind voter excitement as a key predictor in this tight race, diving deep into voter issues like reproductive rights and economic concerns, and explaining why two seemingly contradictory motivations can drive both sides of the electorate. Follow and subscribe to The Chris Cuomo Project on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube for new episodes every Tuesday and Thursday: https://linktr.ee/cuomoproject Join Chris Ad-Free On Substack: http://thechriscuomoproject.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Looking for a collaborator for your career? A strong ally to support your next level success? You will find it at York University School of Continuing Studies, where we offer career programs purpose-built for you. Visit continue.yorku.ca. I have three signs that this election is about something and moving in a direction that is not getting enough attention. I'm Chris Cuomo. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project. In front of me, I have all of this data from Gallup that is measuring something that has been very ignored thus far.

If you think about it, we keep hearing polls of who wants whom to vote. Now, they're just snapshots in time, but more importantly, more importantly of why we need to dismiss them and find another reference point, which I have found for you, is they are all within the margin of error. This is going to be a tight race. So what becomes the real question? All right, you know it's gonna be close. So the real question is what? Why?

What is driving enthusiasm for this election? Wait a minute. Well, just because it's within the margin of error, just because who they wanna vote for is very tight, how do we know there's enthusiasm? I have the data. Gallup was measuring enthusiasm. Now, why is this ignored?

Because it's a tough read. You have to understand statistics and literally political science. Now I just happen to have 30 years of experience dealing with exactly these metrics and enthusiasm matters a lot more. So all this data, right? All these different graphs and stuff and preference bars

matter more than who do you want polls? And here's why. Who do you want is obviously going to be pretty much set, okay, from about halfway through an election through. In fact, Gallup finds in its preference polling to the extent that you wanna look at it, over 87% of people, they say, know who they're gonna vote for.

Now, there's a hidden number within that number that I'm gonna get to if I don't forget. But, so if they've already figured out 87, what does that tell you? Well, if it's close, you now have to identify who's undecided in a way that really, really matters. But enthusiasm is a much more important indicator. Why?

Because it measures not just who and how many are paying attention, but how much they're paying attention. And why that matters is the more people are paying attention, the less susceptible they are to being duped. Now, that doesn't make sense. The more people are paying attention, the less susceptible they are to being duped. Now that doesn't make sense. If you're paying more attention, then you should be more susceptible to being duped

because you're paying more attention, so you're taking more in. No, because when we have seen this in political science, in the research of these things, when you are paying more attention, okay? Here is enthusiasm over time, okay? They'll put these up for you. One, just right off the bat,

enthusiasm at this point in an election, at August before a November election, we're at a historical near high or high, depending on the variability of the different numbers when they measured it. So we got a lot of enthusiasm, but when you're really paying attention, you're actually less susceptible to the head fake,

to the fear mongering, to the con job. Why? Because you've been watching it. You've been seeing all the different offerings. It allows you to calibrate. Whereas when someone is a less enthusiastic, meaning they are less engaged, they have fewer at bats, let's say.

They have fewer shot attempts at trying to figure out what to do. So each one that they do see, each commercial, each viral moment, each meme actually lands harder because they have processed fewer. Make sense? So enthusiasm matters.

Now, the big question is, well, why are you enthusiastic? Ah, that is the gremlin. That is the gremlin, because here is my proposition to you. If the enthusiasm is a function, it can be a function, it can be a function of several different things, okay? Enthusiasm can be driven by transcendent figure.

What does that mean? Obama, Obama. This is a first. Never really had a black man before who seemed to have a real chance. Transcendent figure, I'm gonna pay attention. History's being made. transcendent figure, I'm gonna pay attention, history's being made, ah.

The other one that drives enthusiasm, not so good, grievance. Intensity of feelings tend to go toward the negative. Intensity of feelings that motivate action tend to be negative. That's why we know the word demagogue, somebody who uses prejudice, anger, outrage to motivate support, but we do not know

its positive opposite, which I will ask Greg to play with right now on the Google to see if he can give us the positive opposite to what a demagogue is. But my point is already made because neither I nor you probably know that word unless you're a Greek teacher or some type of sesquipedalian. What does that mean? Somebody who uses big words. Greg says that the near antonyms, meaning the

opposite of a demagogue, which would actually be a positive thing here because a demagogue is someone who looks at a negative, are peacemakers, and what's another one? Reconciled, you see what I'm saying? There is no Greek word that is the positive opposite. You see what I'm saying? What does that tell us? That it's not as easy a form of persuasion. You see riots, you don't see huggins, right?

Nobody's in a mass movement of loving. They're in a mass movement of hating when we see it in our streets. Okay, so grievance is a big motivator of enthusiasm. Wait a minute. No, if you're enthusiastic, no, the connotation. I know I'm the same way you are. When I think, are you enthusiastic? Yeah, I'm enthusiastic. We think that means positive. It doesn't have to mean positive. It just means that you are excited by this and excitement is actually emotionally neutral in terms of what's motivating it. I can be excited. It's exciting. Why? There's all this gunfire

outside. It has excited me. We tend to mean it in a positive way, the connotation, but that's not what the word means and it's not what it means in political science. Enthusiasm is intensity of interest. So it could be, oh, I love her, I love him, I love this idea, or just as likely, if not more likely, I hate this mofo. I am never letting this happen. I'm so against this.

Okay, so if the enthusiasm that is at a record level right now is about grievance, this is Trump's campaign to lose. Why? A grievance election, meaning things are bad, generally militates in favor of what? Change. Well, what are you going to change from? The current administration, which means it works against incumbency effect. Now, why have incumbents historically won second terms?

I think 11 out of 46 or whatever haven't. So why do they usually win one when things tend to suck in most people's minds? Well, one, that's not true. Very often people think things are okay. The other reason is familiarity. Incumbency effect gives you the advantage of being known. You've got infrastructure in place, you're known, you have high name recognition, so that's the advantage.

But, but if the election is being motivated by being pissed off, now you got trouble. Now you have trouble. Think Carter. Okay. Everything was going okay until it wasn't. Then he had an economic problem and he had a foreign relations problem because there were hostages in Iran. Boom. He was done. Grievance. Pissed off you couldn't get our people back. Pissed off that inflation and gas prices are going crazy. You're done. Grievance, pissed off you couldn't get our people back, pissed off that inflation and gas prices are going crazy. You're done. Okay, if it's about grievance, it's Trump's election to lose.

Now, what offsets that? If the enthusiasm is for change that is better now, and that's more than just a semantical difference. It's I'm really looking at somebody who can make these things better as opposed to punishing somebody for how pissed off they are. Now man if you want to punish Trump is your boy. He is the spirit animal of grievance. Something that we keep getting wrong in the media and I think a lot of us just in general is that you think people who support Trump are like Trump and that's not true

most of the people who support Trump are desperate to change the system and They are willing to swallow everything that he isn't because of what he is Which is a disruptive force of what they want changed It doesn't mean that they're just all bigots or that they all act like him or think like him or sound like him. They just want what he's selling them, which is to change, disrupt and break the system. Will he do it? I don't think so, but that doesn't matter. That's for you to decide.

That's for all the voters to decide. Now if you're pissed, he's your guy. If you want better, he may not be. And that is Harris' lane. Support for the Chris Cuomo Project comes from AG1. Man, I'm about my nutrition and supplementation. However, every diet, every plan has gaps. Nothing is perfect.

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Please check it out. Support for the Chris Cuomo project comes from Oracle. AI, man, it's the most important new computer technology. AI, artificial intelligence, is storming every industry.

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Two different things, two different things, militate in favor of Harris having a real lane on top of the fact that she's closed up the numbers. First thing she has that shows she has a lane is that Democrat enthusiasm and left-leaning independent enthusiasm has jumped since Biden got out, as has voter registration among Black women, Latino women, and women overall. Big numbers like 100%, 150%, 178%. That's almost tripling. That's huge. And some of those people are in two swing states,

North Michigan and North Carolina. How do I know that? Because this is what I do for a living. So registration is action of intentionality, which is the next step past enthusiasm. You have preference, you have enthusiasm, and then you have actionable interest, meaning I did something about it.

Mm, registering the vote is that. Now, different than voting itself, but registering the vote is the second highest category. And the people who are registering are women, and that means if women decide, so this is the split on grievance, okay? It is Trump's to lose if it's about grievance, unless, unless, unless the grievance is reproductive rights.

Two things can be true at once. Voter A is voting on grievance about gas prices and being worried about radical, lefty cultural issues. Voter B is also voting based on grievance, but it's reproductive rights. If these people come out in any kind of ratio to these people that's close, now grievance can go Harris's way. Now, I don't think that's going to be the case. I still think that the reproductive rights grievance vote could Harris's way. Now, I don't think that's gonna be the case. I still think that the reproductive rights, grievance vote could make the difference for Harris

if she wins this election, but it's not going to be an offset to grievance of other things. Okay, you see what I'm saying? But because it's such a close race, that kind of grievance can still help her even if overall grievance as a dynamic could beat her. You see, some of this stuff

gets complicated, but I know you have a deeper interest, so I'm taking you through it. Now, the jump in enthusiasm has been on her side since Biden left. Registrations echo that. Okay. Now, we start looking inside the enthusiasm for more clues. Okay. And I found a couple. The first one that matters to me, of course, is independence. Enthusiasm among independents who break left has jumped along with the Democrats. Okay, I don't really care about that that much

because that's, a lot of independents are Fugazi independents. They usually vote with one party all the time. They just say they're independent because it sounds cool. It's like when people say they're libertarian. I'm libertarian. It's really just another way of saying, you're sheep and I'm not, right? Because

there's never any real buy-in to being libertarian. They never run anything. You never vote on the basis of that. It's just something that you can say that makes you sound better than other people. And maybe you are, but still it's a little bit hollow also in terms of it's never actionable. in terms of it's never actionable. Now, independence, however, are showing us something else. 35% of them are undecided. Overall undecided is about 15 to 18%. So what does that tell you? Independence are oversampling as undecided,

which means what? Independence may well decide this election. What do you mean may well? Don't they definitely decide the election? No, because if Democrats over perform in population centers, then that dynamic will decide it. If male, non-college educated, suburb, exurb, rural overperform,

the Republicans likely win. This is all about which factors to look at and which ones in the alchemy of outcomes wind up making the biggest difference. You have to know all of it. It can't be as simple as the candidates make you want it. She sucks. He's a felon. It gets way more complicated if you want to get a real state of the race. 35% of independents are undecided. That means high enthusiasm, they're paying attention, right? And they don't know yet. That's the group to watch. Now, the next piece, the next clue I found

is, well, how do we know the level of susceptibility and if so, to what? Here's Harris's and if so, to what? Here's Harris's good news, okay? This last bar here, 44%, 44% say the campaign is being conducted makes you, the way it's being conducted makes you feel as though the election process is working as it should. Now, here's my read on that number. That number there is upside down.

More people think it isn't going the way it should than do. I believe that that is a nod to ideas to make things better. I do not think, as Gallup suggests in their analysis, it's about how Kamala Harris got the nomination. I don't buy that. I think that that is a trope from the right. And I don't think it has teeth. Why? Two reasons.

One, Trump didn't have a real primary anyway. Trump tried to overturn the last election illegally, as far as I'm concerned. So I don't believe that his voters, you know, that someone's gonna vote for him because they're sensitive to the nature of how the democracy worked within a party. I don't buy it.

I think there's a better chance that it's about what I'm saying it's about, which is, hey man, I want this election to be about how you're gonna make these things better in my life. You take the independents, okay, meaning they're not as dogmatic, and only 44% feeling that the election is being conducted as it should you see an avenue of opportunity for Harris. Sell them an ideas to make things better.

And that's why explaining your positions as a function of your principles and plans is more important than just dealing with being a flip-flopper by saying your values haven't changed People don't expect consistency from politicians. They know you're a bunch of liars who do Mostly what is convenient to winning and retaining power? Okay, so That's just a gotcha. All right, and that can hurt you in a moment the media magnifies it but there's a deeper There's a deeper truth moment and the media magnifies it, but there's a deeper truth here. And the deeper truth is, tell them what will make it better and tell them why you're doing those things and how you'll do those things. The more Harris focuses on that, there's a dual benefit. One, you will not be like Trump who wants this

to be a battle to the bottom of which personality is worse. That's his power alley. That's his wheelhouse. I don't know why you want to go there. Oh, why? What do you mean why? Because he's a scumbag and he's a felon and he's this and he's that. And people don't know that. The people who are gonna care about that don't already know and care. Is there really space there for you? Maybe style points, but space to grow? I don't know.

The second reason is if I'm right and that the undecided vote that is largely independent is fixated on the fact they're not hearing the kinds of things they need to hear to get the satisfaction about what they want, which is not just to know which of you two are worse because they already left the party for that reason. They think you both suck.

This is your lane. This is your lane. Support for the Chris Cuomo Project comes from Factor. Let me tell you, you gotta fuel up, man. You gotta fuel up to meet your needs. Food matters. You cannot out train the kitchen. And factor is the main factor.

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I care about what my money is doing to help with the problems that face all of us. So, your piece of mind matters. Make a wise choice this election season, or at least one of them. Embrace the comfort of Cozy Earth and feel the difference. Go to CozyEarth.com slash Chris, use the code Chris, and you'll get an exclusive discount of up to 40% off. And you can't lose. If you get a post-purchase survey, say you heard about Cozy Earth from the Chris Cuomo Project, please. So we have historic enthusiasm, especially since Biden got out. That means people are going to be paying attention all the way through. That's very good. We start looking within parties and we see high levels all among them,

including independence. So everyone is engaged. Does it make a real difference to you who's elected? 96 and 94. What does that mean? That not a lot of crossover in parties. Not a lot of crossover in parties, okay a lot of crossover and parties, okay? All of these numbers are always gonna be a little bit lower

with independents because they're not tied to partisan preference. Do you have a good idea what they stand for? Everybody's in the 80s, independents a little lower. Is there any candidate running who you think would make a good president? Lower for independents, two out of three, but the other one's very high, very high. But again, that key number, only 37% of independents say,

I think the election's about what it should be. So that 44, which is already upside down, you have more people saying it's not about what it should be than you should, right? It's 53, 44. But they're even lower. They're at 37. Okay? And what's really interesting is that Republicans are at 26. I don't even understand that number, except that they are just receptive to grievance, meaning they just respond to the negative. And when you say, does the way the campaign is being conducted make you feel as though the election process is working as it should? They are set up to be negative on the process. So they're at 26.

Democrats are much higher. They're at like 70. And independents are at 37. So there's a lot of room for making people feel that the election is better than it is right now. That goes to solutions. That goes to Harris's alley of feeding them solutions. Now, did she do that well in her first interview?

Ish, ish, okay? It's a step in the right direction. How big a step? I don't know. I don't love the values line. Someone obviously fed it to her who's a messaging pro. Values, values, values, because values is somehow an equation to you

with integrity or character. But I think values are really the wrong word. I'm not in the business of electing moral agents for me or my family. I don't want someone who's gonna help me learn how to be good as opposed to being bad or evil. I do care about their principles, meaning what are their operative ideas that precipitate the policies? What do they care about? I don't care that you care about fairness.

I want to know what your reckoning of justice is and how you deal with the fact that not enough people are being prosecuted to the extent that a federal official can do anything about that because most policing is done state by state. So be careful when they talk to you about cops because they don't control the cops. They just control money they can give to states to help with their cops. Remember that. Now, historic highs of enthusiasm means that people are engaged. That should translate to higher turnout. Higher turnout obviously can cut both ways, but who has the registration advantage?

Democrats. Democrats have the registration advantage. This recent burst in registration favors who? Democrats, most likely. Black and brown women? Probably Democrats. Huge numbers after Biden dropped out. Goes to enthusiasm, but what issue matters to them?

You look at young women, reproductive rights very high. You look at women overall, not that high, but could still be a factor, especially if it's framed right. Abortion, abortion, abortion, too simple, too simple. That's one procedure. Reproductive rights is more than that. It's who gets to decide what choices you make when it comes to your healthcare.

Well, no, no, nobody's saying they can't get insured, but that's what it sounds like, and it's a slippery slope. Look, why did IVF pop up all of a sudden? Well, how'd that get into it? I thought we were just talking about abortion. We're talking about how you end a pregnancy. Now we're talking about how you begin a pregnancy. Yeah, why?

Slipery slope. Once you take away the right of someone to make those decisions and you give it to the state, now it involves men. Because guess who else cares about IVF? Like men don't care about abortions, by the way. Yeah, let it be your wife who's having one. And because you have a troubled pregnancy and you've got to go

through it and the agonizing and the waiting to hope that you don't have to do this, live that and then see that men don't give a shit about it or they don't count in it. But I digress. IVF, they definitely care because it's about family planning. You know, either he's not working or she's not working the right way. And this is their option. And now you're gonna put a limitation on my options for how I start a family, really? That's why they're backpedaling off that.

No, no, no, Trump wants the government to pay for your IVF. Oh, hello, socialism. Hi, hi, hi, socialism. Hi, how you doing, socialism? Why am I gonna pay for everybody's IVF? Why would Trump even say that? That's how scary the issue is. That's how potent the issue is.

Oh, I want the government to pay for your IVF. That's how pro-IVF I am. And now he's backing away from six-week bans. Why? Because he thinks the issue can beat him. And that's why JD Vance is doing that, whoa, whoa, whoa, Irish jig. Why? Because he wanted to be a hardliner on this. And now Trump is backing off. Why? Because Trump wants to win and he'll do whatever it takes to win.

And you can see that as an attribute that is positive or negative, but that's how he is. Vance is more dogmatic. That's why his answers haven't been great on it. So watch that women registration, watch the enthusiasm, see where it is, and it absolutely lets us know that there is a lane here for Harris. Will she take the lane? Will she own the lane? Will she execute in that lane in a way that she invigorates and activates enough of the

undecideds and enough of the people who are for her such that those who are for her already overperform, meaning they come out at a higher rate than those who are for Trump already? Enthusiasm. They come out at a higher rate than those who are for Trump already, enthusiasm. Two, undecideds may decide on the basis of plans more than which one simply seems less worse. That is what I see in the numbers. Historical high enthusiasm at this point, likely and suggestive of historically high, like not since the Obama election, enthusiasm on election day.

And it comes down to why are people coming out? We know that they want to. What will be the reason that wins the day? What do you think? I'm Chris Cuomo. Thank you for subscribing and following here at The Chris Cuomo Project. Thank you for checking me out on News Nation, 8P and 11P, every weekday night. Hey, I love the podcast, but you know the ads.

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