The Compound and Friends - A Career on Wall Street

Episode Date: September 6, 2024

On episode 156 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Jill Schlesinger and Tony Dwyer to discuss: Tony's distinguished career in finance, 31 years of market returns, the Fed, Nvidia, the labor market, how the market might react to Trump vs Harris, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Themes ETFs. To learn more and access important risk disclosures, visit ThemesETFs.com. Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out! https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You've been flying? Been doing lots of flying. We can talk about that too. That'd be fun. You're you're you're you're the pilot right? I'm the pilot. Yeah. Okay. What do you fly? A Cirrus. Okay. I don't know about private jets. No, it's a single engine four seater. It's the one with parachute. You pull it and it goes into a

parachute and then a TBM which is a turbo a turbine engine. How long have you been flying? Single engine. 2014. Okay. All right. 2013. What made you want to start doing that? TBM which is a turbo turbine engine how long have you been watching? 2014 okay all right 2013 what made you want to start doing that my son was taking his first solo at 16 And I was standing on the tarmac with my wife And I knew this the plane that he was in and I wanted to I was like I better learn how to do this Yeah, all right 16. He was flying. Oh wow Solos fun, okay fun very cool. Yeah, we probably was flying. Oh wow. It was fun. Okay. Very cool. Yeah. I'm terrified of that stuff to be honest. I probably put about 1200 hours in a plane

with him. If you thought about it you should do it because it is this one of the single greatest things I've done.. There are every airport will have it. There's no greater peace. I had enough anxiety. Than doing it in a plane and just yourself in the engine and you gotta land. Oh dude. I love planes and planes.

I went on a Cessna airplane for the first time. Yeah. I went from Boston to Provincetown. Yeah. It was so cool. It's so cool. They're so tiny. It's so cool.

It was amazing. The pilot was a fellow bald. I appreciate that. Good looking guy f**king cool. It's so cool. They're so tiny. It's so cool. It was amazing. Yeah. The pilot was a fellow bald. I appreciated that. Good looking guy. Great looking guy. It was really awesome. It was so... I enjoyed it so much.

I forgot you're a pilot. What's that? How often do you fly? At least once a week. Oh yeah? Yeah, yeah. That's nice. Yeah, I do it for business.

It's the longest trip. We've been to Catalina Island. We've done it. We've been to Catalina Island. We've circled that Apple picture on the home screen and took it ourselves. In California? Yeah. So cool. So it's a Cirrus.

So you have to stop and do it overnight. But yeah. Wait, from the East Coast all the way there? Wow. Not in one trip. I mean, you got to stop and get gas. Like where the Catalina wine mixer was. Yeah.

It's no joke. Pa-pow. It's no joke. and get gas. Like where the Catalina wine mixer was. Yeah. It's no joke. Pa-pow. It's no joke. Do you remember the movie with the Catalina wine mixer? No. Step Brothers. Step Brothers, do you ever see that? All time.

Will Ferrell and what's the other? If it's Will Ferrell, it's funny. All time. What's the other guy? John C. Reilly. John C. Reilly. So. And Mr. Doeback.

The climax of the movie takes place on Catalina Island. They are, the family business is like selling helicopters or something. Or private planes or something. And they have a band to entertain. It's like a cocktail party. 80s Joel. So it's Horatio Sanz from Saturday Night Live as the lead singer

and they only play 80s Billy Joel. Like only 80s. 80s Joel. So people are like shouting out requests from the audience, like Piano Man, he's like, what part of 80s Joel did you not understand? Very nice to meet you. Oh! I love it!

We landed there, it was so great. So good. All right, hold on. That is way too good. Jill, do you love it? Ladies and gentlemen, Jill On Money. I love you. Thank you.

Bye. Hi. Hi. Do you love it ladies and gentlemen Jill on money? Well good oh yeah, okay, you know we have to have you on the air tomorrow morning immediately before and after Whatever it's all good. What's the what's going on nothing? Okay anything I need to know about nothing at all all right Michael So I- Do you want to explain? Yeah, so I was telling Josh and Nicole before we started that, when I was in Provincetown,

I said to my wife, I was like, oh, I should text her, I'm in Provincetown. Yeah, she's gay. I'm seeing her in two weeks, and my mom was like, what? You're gonna text her because she's gay? I was like, I don't, I'm seeing her in two weeks. Maybe she has an apartment there.

I feel like, I don't know. So not, you know that's not where I roll. So I'm like, so I texted you and then like, you didn't answer for 10 minutes, I'm like sweating, panting, I'm like, uh-oh, uh-oh, uh-oh. And then you text me back with the gift, these gays are everywhere. And I said, say I told you.

These gays, they're trying to murder me. So that's Jennifer Coolidge at the end of White Lotus season two. She's trapped on the yacht. Yeah, do you know these gays? They're trying to murder me. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a great meme. The sound her head makes hitting the boat. Did you watch that show?

Amazing. You know, he's a serious guy. Yeah. And you having me on with him, I think it's very bad. Tony's a pilot. Hey guys. I'm predicting greatness. You do?

I love the combo. Tony's a pilot. I love. I'm predicting greatness. You do? I love the combo. Tony's a pilot. I love the combo. How was your summer? You know, all I'm doing is I'm on my goddamn bicycle. You know who hasn't given me money for the ride? Oh, was I supposed to?

When is it? Wow. You just got your biggest donor now. Michael, Michael, it's so long ago that you made that very generous donation. I so appreciate that. Immediately, right? Immediately. Hold on, what?

Also Jay. I support my friends. Jay also. What's the deadline? Did I miss it? Well, it depends how much money you have to support the ride. Did you do the ride already? No, I did not.

Are you training for the ride? Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, can you resend me? I wanna be part of the solution. Do you wanna be like I am, which is I wanna be the largest donor? Thatend me? I want to be part of the solution. Do you want to be like I am, which is I want to be the largest donor? That's always what I want. I want to stand out.

Can I show you something? I'll show you guys something. So I didn't think this was offensive. We're doing a closet, and we have a closet guy. And he sent, as you know, as one does a CAD, a computer assisted design, like a, a schematic it's, it's going to be my wife's office, which is going to be in a closet, which it sounds weird, but it's not. Are you taking Tara's bedroom?

No, no, no. This is for Florida. So I didn't like the design. It had the shelves facing her on both sides And it looked like very cubically like almost like an office, but this is in an apartment Okay, so I said, ah, let me take a crack at the design. Oh stop it. No Did you actually draw this yourself this is dope this is the dopest closet ever wait So are you making her do, wait a second.

I want to just turn that around one more time. So she's sitting at a desk. So Sherry's sitting at a desk. Sprinkles in the middle at her desk. And then what I did was I did like cubbies around her of her bags and shoes, and I'm going to like backlight them. I'm going to Carrie Bradshaw this whole thing. But can't she get her own office?

Like, not that, like, what? Nobody puts Baby in the corner. Nobody puts Baby in the closet. Office to do Lula Lemmon returns? Oh my god. I want to meet her, cause she knows. I'm joking, she actually, she's our CFO. She pays all our bills. She's like, she's incredible.

She's also the investment manager. Look at the beautiful office I built for her. And we sent it to the closet people. And they sent back a smiley face emoji. So, I don't think my design is going to be the final say on the closet office. I just want to thank you again for my lovely shirt. You are welcome. I love this so awesome.

Nicole, I feel like you may have had something to do with this. No, I just found out today. Oh really? Michael's actually a great gift giver. Okay, hold on. So. Really? I'm a giver.

Are you a good gift giver? Do you come up with like the perfect? I don't know anything about that. I'm not good at that stuff. No, you are. Yes, you are. I'm mostly a gift certificate person though. I hope to be a good gift giver. Others, you know, others...

I'm not a good gift giver, but I admire and respect gift certificate personnel. I hope to be a good gift giver. Others, you know, others. That's a, I'm not a good gift giver, but I admire and respect gift givers. I am coming off of two weeks of vacation, which included three consecutive weddings on August weekends. Really? So speaking about gifts. Have you been out east the whole time?

No, we were out east for like a week and a half, but we had a wedding in the city. My sister's daughter got married. It was beautiful. but we had a wedding in the city. My sister's daughter got married. It was beautiful. Then we had a wedding in Maine, and then followed by a wedding on the North Fork of Long Island. Okay, I love it up there.

It's beautiful. I mean, but the- Where, Greenpoint? South Hold. Greenport? Green, oh, South Hold. South Hold is where we were. But I mean, have you been to a wedding lately?

I have. The company I'm working at now, which we'll talk about, one of the co-founders got married in June and July. How old is this guy? 28. And my son's getting married November 1. Oh, wow. Oh, look at that.

Did he just steal your thunder? I was about to say, my god. That was the easiest question that you could ask. What I was going to ask was, well, of course it's your own kid, but the amount of money that weddings cost and... To throw or to be against that? Both. Both.

Everything's ratcheted up now. Who did you talk to who was talking about destination weddings and he was like, well, I had a destination wedding. I don't know. I don't remember. Somebody's probably calling him assholes and he's like, oh, I did one of those. Yeah. Somebody complaining. Who was assholes and they're like, oh, I did one of those. Yeah. Somebody complaining.

Who was it? It was a hall. Who? Todd Stone? It was just a hall to get up to Maine. No, but I have a take on destination weddings that I think people were surprised by. I think they're great. And I don't know what all the complaining is about.

Yeah. If you belong there. I went to one two years ago. Yeah, two years ago in October in Spain, in May. It's great. It was awesome. People act like they're going to live forever. Go to the wedding.

What's wrong with you? One of our nieces married a South African. So that's why we went to South Africa earlier this year. And so what was that might be a little bit. But what was cool was they had a big runway. They got married during COVID. And then it was like two years later was the party. So all of their friends, his are obviously there, but her friends from New York basically planned

like the trip of a lifetime. Basically they said, okay, we haven't gone away. We're going to save up. We're going on safari together. We're going to the wine country, going to the wedding. It was kind of cool. I used to complain about my friends bachelor parties. I don't get invited to bachelor parties anymore. And honestly, I think I would probably die if I went on one so like all the complaining oh I gotta go to your dad I gotta go to Cabo what's a big deal just go or don't go to bachelor no what you guys don't get this as much Nicole showers rolled her eyes she rolled her eyes I eyes. I find a wedding shower is exhausting and horrendous. A baby shower is worse because I married into an Italian Catholic family where they do baby

showers. We're Jews. We don't do baby showers. Like it's bad luck. So I had to go to all of these, I had to go to a lot of showers, and finally, the last shower that I had gone to in Jackie's family was the bride called the wedding off two weeks later. So to which I said, that's, no.

I said, that's my last shower, I'm done. I said, what, if you were married to a man, he wouldn't have to go to the shower. Just because I'm a girl, I have to go to the shower? This seems like the worst thing ever. That's a good point. All right, that's it Well, so that those I've known I've not been horrible. I've not been assaulted with so alright How we looking guys? We we all good to go? All right, let's do the show

That was that was party the clappity claps. Here we go. The Compound and Friends, episode 156. Welcome to The Compound and Friends. All opinions expressed by Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and their castmates are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

Michael, did you know Themes ETFs seeks to provide a way to own the opportunities that are shaping the future and moving markets with expense ratios 40% lower than the average charged by competitors? I did know. And did you know that the current offering at Themes ETFs spans both cutting edge technologies and traditional industries? Let me give you an example, Josh.

Generative artificial intelligence, maybe you've heard of it, the ticker is wise. And GSIB, Global Systemically Important Banks. You guys, you can see a full lineup of the ETFs being offered by Themes ETFs by going to themesetf.com today. All right. 156? Guys, I'm predicting greatness out of this show.

What do you think? What do you think? You fired up for this? Is there anything else? All right. What do you think? What do you think? You fired up for this? Is there anything else? Alright, what do you think? Excited? Excited? Nicole is dancing.

You know we got new art. How great is that? Alright, I love it. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the greatest financial podcast in the world. I say that without even a trace of irony. And today's episode is going to be one for the ages. We have two incredibly special guests. First up, you know her, you love her.

She is an Emmy and Gracie Award winning business analyst for CBS News, writes and hosts a nationally syndicated column and podcast on the compound YouTube channel, Jill on money. Ladies and gentlemen, Joe Sessinger. Thank you very much. Prior to CBS, Joe was editor at large for CBSMoneyWatch.com, spent 14 years as the co-owner and CIO of an RIA. Joe, thank you so much for coming by.

We always love to see you and I love the shirt. And the shirt's the greatest. I'm very excited to be here. And we are also in the presence of true Wall Street greatness. Legendary, legendary strategist Tony Dwyer is here. After 37 years, Tony has stepped away from his full-time role as chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity to become the CFO of a fast growing health tech company called Prompt Therapy Solutions.

Welcome back, Tony. Great to be here, buddy. Thank you guys for having me. It's great to be with you, Joe. You're the best. He will continue as market strategist for Canaccord until they delete the photos, providing keynote addresses, webinars, and media appearances. Tony, I don't say living legend easily.

You truly are someone that people like me have grown up watching on television, learning from, reading, being influenced by. I know there are probably tens of thousands of people who feel the way that I do. You have been one of the best. I think you still are. But I'm so happy about hearing about your new journey and we'll talk about it in a second. It's true that people clapped you off the floor at Canaccord in New York when you made your announcement.

When did you make your announcement? April? It was I think in May and then left the firm at the end of May. It was really a special moment. Did you cry? Not right that moment, but I got choked up for sure. I think I would have. I was in the elevator, nobody saw it.

But I'm very grateful for the opportunity that I had and the form that I've been given. It's not many people get the opportunity. 14 years at Canaccord. Yeah, 14, 37 years in the game. In strategist years, which involves? A billion. It's a billion years in the game. In strategist years, which involves... A billion. It's a billion years because the amount of travel, the amount of FaceTime with people,

like the role is intense. It's not like, oh, wake up, grab a cup of coffee. Every day you have to know what's going on and be able to communicate with very powerful people. I learned from, I think the greatest in the business, I don't know if anybody remembers the name Larry Wachtel. 100%. When I was at Probation, and I was the one that I went... This is back when they had screens that were green.

Oh, yeah. They were actually no colors. Yeah. And people, the brokers would call up and ask Larry, you know, how do you turn this thing on? Like, what's a Quotron? Yeah. Right?

And he would... I was the guy that answered... I would answer the phone because they were frequent and very annoying questions. And he taught me how to be, how to have a little bit of humility or maybe a little less arrogance and how to communicate in a way that you guys do. Oh, well, we certainly appreciate that. What makes this show special, and the reason I wanted to do it even though I left the career is because you guys communicate with people about your life,

about the real world, and you say it in an honest way with integrity. And that's the only legacy I care about as it relates to how I was on Wall Street. And there was a time where, you know, he pulled me aside and he said, kid, nobody's going to remember whether you were right or wrong. They're going to remember how you made them feel. Yeah. Funny you should say that because last time you were on the podcast. Yeah, right. They're gonna remember how you made them feel. Yeah funny you should say that because last time you're on the podcast

If you want to hit me get around getting in line it's around the block So here's what here's what we want to start the show. I had asked you when we first booked you to come on Okay, so you've called it a career and it's been an incredible career for our listeners And again, our listeners are for the most part for our listeners and again, our listeners are for the most part, either professional investors or working at big asset management firms or people managing their own money. So it's like a very broad spectrum, our listenership. But I think you must have some really important lessons or big takeaways, everything that you've learned in your career.

You must have like in your own mind distilled down like these are the big things. So we would love to just hear from you like what are you walking away from your career with that you've learned? A pile of money. A pile of money, of course. You know, incredible gratitude. Okay. Right?

Like I think- But what stock should I buy, Tony? As my kids would tell you, I got a great idea for what you should buy by what I would short. Okay, fair, fair. So, you know, I think everything in life comes down to one thing for me, my kids, my family. Who can you help? Okay.

So when I got into Wall Street, it came as a result of a, we bought a stock. My brother and I bought a stock. We were little kids. We were watching, I think it was FNN at the time, some channel, and it had a ticker. It was the only one that had a ticker. We bought this Canadian stock and we got smoked.

No tell? No, this was before that. This was way, this was before lights. So I wanted to get on Wall Street and learn about investing because somebody smoked us on a bad idea. And I wanted to find out why. So when I think about my career and what I learned through it, it wasn't about how much money could I make that week.

It wasn't about how can I look the smartest on TV? I'm good at not looking so smart on TV. It was always about what's the message that I'm trying to convey and for what purpose. And I would guide anybody that's in Wall Street or any other business to do it in a way where you're trying to help the audience that you're speaking to.

I'm not on CNBC or Fox or Bloomberg or the Compound and Friends to try to look smart. I'm here because I wanna help. I want it like you do. You wanna be direct about how it works. Right. So what do you think is the moment of your career where you had the most satisfaction with what you do?

Like you could brag a little. Like what's the thing that you look back on? I'm sure there were many of these episodes where you just say, that was me at my best. 9-11. Okay, say more. Actually, at my best. Nine-eleven. Okay, say more. Actually, it chokes me up a little bit. So, you know, I was writing for Jim at thestreet.com.

I was a full-time strategist, but I was getting paid to do that there. I was subscribing, so I remember. Everybody came into my office and it was what it was. And I wrote a piece that you can still find online Everybody came into my office and it was what it was. And I wrote a piece that you can still find online about how America wins, how we win. And we win by coming together and we do it aggressively. In times of trouble, you don't come together.

You got two choices, you fold or you come together. And we come together. I would argue we definitely did after. I remember walking up to Chinatown you know, I after all the events that were that were happening I was working on Wall Street at the time and You know, I was able to get through to my wife and kids and tell them I was alright, which was great but then I think How I responded in a crisis and presented myself to the world is how I would always

want to do it. And the other time was when I got clapped off the floor. That was special. It wasn't scripted. Nobody was there taking videos. I just, you know, it was a short-term thing. I had only told the firm a couple of few weeks before. I was going to work with my eldest son who started,

was co-founder with his best friend Adam in the software company. And I got up and I left and I said, shook everybody's hand because that's what you do. My dad would come out of his grave if I didn't. And you know, they all stood up and clapped me off the floor. That's amazing. Tony, I was going to ask why now but maybe you just answered it. Is it because of the venture that your son is doing? So I've been on the board of my my son's business

and that he co-founded with his best friend Adam. My other two sons work there. They so there's a picture in our in our in our deck. It's got the four best friends and brothers, I call them my associate sons, had a farm stand. I built them a farm stand when they were like 10 years old, put a cash register on it. I'll show you the picture. And in it is Mike, Adam, Tim, and Alec. And in this picture, they're doing then what they're doing today.

It's incredible. To help the healthcare industry, the businesses and the patients they serve. It hasn't changed for even a moment, but it's not that, Mike. That's not the reason I made the decision. Why now? Because it's a fast growth company.

I don't think I'll ever get an opportunity to work at a company like that again. And it is so exciting to do it. Love that. Love that. So tell us what the company does. It's basically- We sell Ozempic. We were the first ones to do it.

No, no, no, no, no. It's a vertical SaaS company in the health tech space. Right now, our primary target audience is physical therapy. So it runs the business of physical therapy. So the mission is to create- Software for physical therapists. Correct, it runs the whole business physical therapy. So the mission is to create a- Software for physical therapists. Correct, it runs the whole business, soup to nuts. And the whole mission is to create extraordinary outcomes

for healthcare businesses and most importantly, the patients they serve. My son started it, came up with the original idea because he got hurt. And when he got hurt, my brother did the surgery, he's an orthopedic surgeon, did the surgery, he FaceTimed my son Mike, my son Mike moved his arm, like what's your range of motion?

And it was here when it should have been here. And my brother got upset and said, you gotta get a new therapist. And Mike said, how am I supposed to know? And so there was the origination of the idea. So it's really kind of a, it's something that was built since 2017. So how do they treat you within the startup? Because I'm guessing you're the oldest player on the team by a couple of years.

The CEO, Ray, Belliatico's CEO, he's my age. We coach the kids, so this is the way it looked. We were coaching the kids when they were young, and we sat on, we were coaching baseball. They weren't really paying attention in the outfield. We weren't in the dad's club of the coaches, so they gave us, you know, we had our team. They're all out there playing, and this is Ray and I,

you know, sitting there on a bucket filled with baseballs. Right? Right, right. So Ray and I are the oldest a bucket filled with baseballs. Right? Right, right. I know the feeling. So Ray and I are the oldest, but it's such a vibrant and exciting, and it's like when you come in here,

people are milling around. They're thinking of what they can do. They're trying to create business. They're innovative, new ideas. It's the excitement of a growth business that really attracted me, because I was part of it as a member of the board since the day one. So how long have you been away day to day from County Court? June 1.

Okay. So about three months. Are you able to step away from the screen? Like do you still check the stock market every day? I check it every day. I don't check it every five minutes of every day. Which is what we do. So are you just managing your own money or do you manage money for others in your family? Do you have bigger responsibilities? No, I let them do.

I made a decision a long time ago, Jill. My kids are smart enough to manage their own life. They don't need me to do it. Now, when they call on me to be a guide, I'll be their guide. But the only, I have a wealth manager. I, it's like the lawyer that represents himself has a full for a client. I won't, I won't. A strategist that manages money. I won't manage money for me. It's thankless. Oh yeah.

I won't manage money for me because I don't, it's not what I do. Yeah. I advise institutional investors on how to allocate capital. That's not, hey, I think I'll buy 400 shares of Microsoft today, and if I did, you should sell it. I'm not great at that, so I try to avoid it. So you still are tethered to communications. It's not as if, I have a friend who's about to retire, and she was telling me that

she is this big job at a Fortune 500 company, and she said, I'm so looking forward to the day where I turn in my work phone, that I just feel exhausted from the amount of incoming. And how is your life today in a small, fast growth business different than being in a client business? The incoming is the same and I view the people that I represent as clients anyway. I always do. So it really hasn't changed that much. The stress level of being the front face all the time has changed and that's nice. I like working for my kids and the rest of the employees at the firm and the clients we serve. I like that instead of always being the guy out front,

the face on TV or the radio. So that it's just, honestly, Joe, it's a different kind of stress. It's not, it's still there, but my family and friends would start laughing if you said that I was ever gonna be the guy sitting on a couch or playing golf every day. I've gone from triple type A to double type A. Let's go.

Okay. You're getting there. You're down shifting, but not drastically. Not exactly on the off-ramp. There's no other game. There's the A game that I like to play. I can't sit there and watch other people play it. I'm a sports enthusiast because yes, I like to watch it, but I like to play. I can't sit there and watch other people play it. I'm not, I'm a sports enthusiast because yes I like to watch it but I like to play it.

What's your sport? Right. All of them. Skiing, golf, you know, anything. We do anything. I like to say the Dwyer family, we're good at all sports and great at none. Okay. I don't even mean to say that's arrogant. We're not good at all sports. But we like to play all sports. So on behalf of all of Compound Nation, everyone watching, everyone listening, I just want to say thank you so much for everything you've done for the investing community, for Wall Street, and we wish you well. We wish you nothing but an IPO in your future, and we'll get you back at that exchange before

you know it. Before it closes. It would be so arrogant of me to not mention how grateful I am for the people along the way that helped me from the original strategy group of Prudential Larry Wachtel to you, to Mike, now Jill, to the people along the way. Barry loves you. And most importantly, my associate I had, Mike Welch, was with me for, he's now the market analyst and strategist at Canaccord. He was with me literally for, I think, 20 years. Okay.

As my right-hand man. Oh, they gave him the job? Yeah. Oh, very cool. Yeah, and you know what, they didn't give it to him. We earned it. That's right. We earned it.

I always said to management, if you can find somebody that does it better than me, get him. I'm good, I'll step aside happily. Right. And I think that's... Did they call Belsky right after you said that? Or what was the reaction?

I'll challenge you on that. But again, I know I'm taking a lot of time with this, but it's so important to be gracious to the people that helped me. I could have never done it without them. Well, that's certainly a sentiment that I agree with. Let's do some stock market stuff. What do you guys think? Sounds good? Let's rock! That's right.

Let's go. I've only looked at it once today though, Mike. Okay. All right. So Ben Carlson, our colleague Ben Carlson put up a piece on September 1st called 31 Years of Stock Market Return and we have a graphic and I know that this is Michael you mentioned this was a Dimensional a dimensional funds they you they they have this in a lot of their literature I guess I didn't remember that they have that they had a big chart I'm a giant book and it was all these charts. I didn't remember it So when I first saw this I just said I've never really seen the data like this

it's great and of course I have but I don't remember. Anyway what we're looking at here and for those of you listening you can go to a wealth of common sense and find this very easily but we're looking at basically you can trace along the top axis any year. So it starts at 1993 up through 2023. So you could trace any year and then on the y-axis going down on the left side, you have a number of years. And you could put your finger anywhere and it will tell you what that number of years return was, annualized, from whatever year that you pick. So, like as an example, there's not a lot of red on this chart, which I think speaks to this really big idea that for the most part,

it's really hard to pick a bad time to invest. I think that was like one of the main points. Okay. You can pick a bad time to invest, but it's really hard to do. Even if that's the thing that you're most worried about. But then the second thing is it's really extraordinary how when you get down to this bottom left corner, all the numbers are the same. They, it's really extraordinary how when you get down to this bottom left corner, all the numbers are the same. They're 10%, 11%, meaning the number of years as you get down to 25 years, 26 years, 27

years, virtually from any year that you start, the long term returns annualized, they kind of default back to this 10 or 11%. Now there's a couple of things we heard in response to this. Can you guess? Oh, well, wouldn't it be better if I didn't have to be in those days? Now Show Japan? Now Show Japan, no.

Our train's never late. Why isn't this inflation adjusted? Right. To which I responded, because you're ugly. But that's the one that you get, really. You usually get that from other financial advisors who are very tactical. Or use a lot of commodities or like a lot of non-correlated strategies because they don't want this to be true. It's a better story that they are more important than what the market does.

So you hear a lot about that. The other thing that we got was, oh, so just own stocks through the worst markets. I'm not saying that. The chart is saying that. But also, I mean, it's a little bit of, you protect the turf on which you've been grown. You've been sowing your seeds, right? And I think that especially for a professional.

As a professional. Yeah, these professionals, I think what they're trying to sort of say is like, well, what you're saying is I don't need to exist. And that's not what we're saying. So they're taking it that way and I get that. But that's not what we're just saying is, isn't it remarkable that if you hold things for 10 years, basically, you're going to be fine.

Let's button it down to an even more practical way. If the equal weighted S&P 500 is bumping up against its all time high, as is the S&P 500 and every other index, right? That means that never, ever, unless if you could hold for a certain amount of time, it never made sense to sell. It's where you're more aggressive and when you add. Like in the crash of 87, if you bought before the crash of 87, that was a great trade today. It was probably a great trade a year later. Yeah, everything is if you give it enough time.

I like that heuristic. So, when you get to 11 years, there's no more red. Yeah, it's amazing. That's what's amazing to me. So, once you had an 11-year holding period, it has never been a bad decision to have bought stocks. 11 years is a long time. How about Ben's post, Bob the world's worst market timer? Ben Carlson did a post that shows what happens if this person had $100,000 to invest or something

like that and he invested in 1974 or 73, 87, 99 and then again in 2006. He only invested his money at major market peaks and he's still compounded at whatever 8% a year for time Even if you're the worst market timer if you don't f*** it up if you don't get scared and do something rash that you're gonna regret You'll be okay. So here's the thing about that though if you're a professional You don't get bailed out because you're the person that told somebody to buy stocks the day before 1997 like you if you're an individual, you can live through it easier than if you're the person that's telling other people when to buy. But you know what I've found since then? If you remember all the famous people throughout

the history of market crashes, those people generally have a pretty tough time after that major. Yeah, what happened to Elaine Gazzarelli? You know, or anybody. Barry. Any of- Paul. Meredith Whitney. Paulson. All of what happened to Elaine Gazzarelli? You know, or anybody. Barry. Any of, any of. Meredith, Meredith Whitney.

Paulson. All of the heroes from the GFC. They never turned. Noreal. Roubini. Yeah. So when you, like, you know, my reputation, I think, is to be the biggest bull on Wall Street

was my moniker for a long time. Tony the Bull. Because it was, it doesn't make sense to sell unless you have a, if you're somebody sitting at home, and Jill, this is your, this is unless you have, if you're somebody sitting at home, and Jill, this is your strength, but if you're somebody sitting at home and you got two college educations in three years, it's a different decision than an endowment fund.

Totally. And like when people say, oh, we invest like Warren Buffett. He has no end. Forever. There's like a no, but we had a guy who called up the podcast and he's got $3 million in his brokerage account, 2.7 million of which is in Apple stock. And he's so scared to sell because he says, everybody I ever worked with at Apple who sold regrets it.

I said, but you're telling me you're gonna go buy a new house. He's an Apple employee? Yeah, he was. And he said, but he wants to go buy a house. And he's like, I'm going to get a loan for it. But what? Scared to sell.

I'm scared to sell. And he said very, very clearly, I understand buy and hold. No one ever taught me about when to sell. And I said, well, it's not a win, but again, It's if you need to. You need to. And that's okay. If you're somebody that you know your parents need to go to nursing care and you're going

to have to fund it and you're long at the Russell 2000, you got to think about that. To me, we complicate something that has some common sense to it. It's what do I need? Why do I need it? And how am I going to get it? And when am I getting it? And when? Right.

And that's the key question. Yeah. So one other thing. So the two worst times to buy based on this chart, John, you want to throw that back up? I mean, we know this information. 2000 and 2000, the year 2000, you were negative for five years. Right. That's a big deal. It's a long time. That's really... That's forever. And I, so I was in the business at that time. The thing though that's worth pointing out is almost nobody took an entire cash lump sum, put it in the market in the year 2000. Almost nobody. Now you might have bought things in 2000, but you probably also bought things in 97

and in 2002. So it's rare that somebody is going to take this lump sum and just drop it into the market right at the top. But it took five years and that's tough. The second worst time looks like it was 2008. So it took four years. Now four years is also hard, but is that the end of the world?

It's not great. Well, if you're a long-term investor, what's your time horizon? When we say long- term investor, what would you say? 10 years? 15? For institutions, yeah. Right? So if that's long term, that's fine. And if you're a short term investor and you had 100% of your money in stocks, shame on you. Right? So let's do the visual. There's red and there's green, right? So 2008, four years later, you're down minus 2%, correct? Yeah. What are you with interest rates?

Like, what was the market? Well, let's think about that. In 2008, rates were zero, basically. Right. So the spread that you're getting isn't so crazy. It's red and it's popping at you. But it's really not that different than sitting in cash. Like, let's say you were in cash the whole time. You're not, yeah, you're getting more than zero, but not by a lot.

The last thing I want to point to here, that last red box in 2022. So if you had bought in January of 2022, and that was the only time you ever bought, and you just put a lump sum, you put a million dollars into the market, you are absolutely hating life by December. But look, a year later you're up 2%. So you had to make it through one year. And 2022 is a horrible year. Like we all-

It's hard though. You turn on the TV, people are squawking at you about how the end of the world is gonna come. You'll get the commercial, there's always a commercial of like Armageddon 2020, Armageddon 2021, Armageddon 2022. Well, so I think that's a part of this chart that's triggering to people is it makes it look like there's no risk and that it's easy and it's anything but.

We know that. Yeah. It's like, unfortunately, what I found in one of the lessons in my career is the hardest thing to do is to tell somebody to be aggressive when it's looking the worst. Yeah. What, you don't see the risks? Yeah. Right. And you always see the risks? Yeah. Right. And you always see the risk.

And you always know if I'm doing my job right as a chief market strategist, by definition, I have to be wrong first or I'm hurting you. Other than going on CNBC or one of the channels and saying, oh, I was right, which I would never do, what good is it to be right right away? Because nobody's going to buy it. Tony, does 2024 feel like

Through through the end of August does it feel like the fifth best year since 1990 like does it feel as good as anything to suggest And that's where I'd say in what measurement no Yeah, I know the S&P 500 but you know one of the things I can very openly say is I I'm not an expert in seven stocks Yeah, okay I can very openly say is I'm not an expert in seven stocks. Yeah. If you remember the chart I used to publish that had top seven, top 10 stocks, percent of the S&P 500 are current, were currently, I think it was 38% or some number like that. That means you're an eight stock strategist. Yeah. And I'm not that smart, right?

So you're not a macro strategist at that point. You're a stock strategist for a very small number of stocks. So if you do an equal weighted or the Russell, there's times this year where it's been flat, down for the year. And that's why I think there's so much frustration on Wall Street and the institutional community or even individual community.

Because unless you talk about it every day, you're levering up those names. There's no way you're outperforming. So Tony, you've had a storied career, so almost four decades. And I'm wondering, in those years, if you can really think back, I know that the seminal events, the 1987s,

the 2000s, they're important. Were there years that just absolutely shocked you? Were there years where you said, I cannot believe that happened? And if so, what were those? To the downside or upside? Either one. Either way, the upside. I I. I. 23 is that 20, 23 and 20, 20, even 20, 24.

But but again, which which marketer want to say pop that chart, pop that chart. Yeah, I got 23 wrong. I mean, I would not have expected I was the one expected a recession. Number two, I didn't think the market would rally to the degree. Take a look at this. So to Michael's point, this is year-to-date 2024. They're showing the calendar years since 1990 where the S&P matched or exceeded. These are the only years as good as this year through August. Isn't it interesting 1995 and 1997 to non-recession years were two of them? So, 91 we were up 19.7% through this period.

I know it's coming out of a bear market. Yeah. 95 you're up 22% through August. It was a financial crisis bear market too. It was the SNL crisis. Yes. Right. 97 you're up 21.5%.

2021, well that didn't go well. You're up 20%. And then this year you're up 18.4%. It's almost seems inconceivable. I mean, but so far, Jesha, let's say something goes bonkers in the next three months, right? That chart changes.

That's why it's, we're famous for creating chart. And you did, you're not doing this. You're just highlighting your point. No, shame on Dalsky. No, but- This is Brian's chart. It's a great chart though. 2024 disappears. Yes. Well, we don't know. If the market all of a sudden drops 3% by the year.

Well, let's take a look at that. The point of this chart from Belsky is that in the back half of the year, in the last four months of the year, it's been positive for the last four times that we were up this much. But also on the bottom, Brian shows that even though it's been higher the last four times, there's also been drawdowns, of course, as always are. Yeah. Brian does a great job, by the way. He's a good friend of mine. It's a great chart. So I think the message of this chart is that things will go bonkers. It's not just expected, it's common. It's in every chart. That's right.

Right? And the question is, do you have a person advising you, to Jill's question to me earlier, or you're enough intestinal fortitude to believe when you're looking wrong that you're not? Well, I think that that's, you guys make this point all the time, that I think that the interesting thing that we found out is that the younger generation is trained to not be as reactive as we thought they would be. We thought they'd be twitchy and these meme stock people. They seem not afraid and they also are very much looking to opportunities.

And I think that that is a different generation. And children are not losing as much though. They don't have as much investment. Agreed. The best investor I've ever met so far, my son Mike. He puts every two weeks a certain percentage of his money into an index and he's done it since he started working. He's never worried about whether we're going to go into a recession or anything.

He's just doing it methodically as prescribed and it's compounded way more than the vast majority of professionals that I know. That's what most regular people, not people working on Wall Street, with their 401ks, they don't even realize it, but they set up an allocation in 1998 and if they're still at the same company, they never changed it, it's 25 years later, they've had huge ups and huge downs,

but like Fidelity said, they have about 500,000 401k accounts that are a million dollars or more. It's not just Josh's point, it's not just young investors. Like Vanguard never has outflows. Yeah. Ever. Yeah. So, all right, all right.

So I think the conclusion though, from Ben's chart and Belsky's chart, is not bad things can't happen. It's that they're definitely going to happen. But even still, it's really hard to pinpoint a quote unquote bad time to invest, especially if we're talking about for longer than 10 years. Well, one thing that we didn't mention in terms of the stock market is that these are actual companies. They're businesses and they're really good at growing their earnings per share over time.

And investors are rewarded for the businesses growing. It's very simple. Yeah. I mean, you lose that thread sometimes because you're in the index. I mean, the market. It's not like a person. You own a piece of Apple. Exactly.

Like actually. Isn't that what the capitalism in the stock market was formed for so that an average person can become a partner No is to sell gold on Josh's shows. Hey All right tomorrow. We're gonna get the August non-farm payrolls report Tony These were probably like Super Bowls for you. I don't miss that part. You missed that part like what what's the job? What's the jobs number? Can I tell you something? A year and a half ago, maybe two years ago, I wrote a piece about the data.

People have now picked up on it. The Fed talks more about it. The initial, tomorrow's numbers ridiculous to use. I, for the love of God, I begged my clients to not look at these numbers and react to them. Why? Because they are so revised. Yeah, two more times.

There's some, you know, the establishment survey, which we're going to get tomorrow. It's the number of jobs that were created. It comes from the establishment survey. Pre-pandemic, it was a median 70% of companies. So they send out the survey to Ritholz and company. You tell them how many people you hired, how many people you fired, to answer a couple of questions, right? Before the pandemic, 70% of the companies each month sent that back in to be in the initial report. So it's called the initiation survey rate. You can Google it and it'll come up, the Fed tracks it. The current data, it's 28%, I think, to respond.

That's terrible. Maybe it's 38%. What do you think accounts for that fall off? Because companies are doing their business versus responding to the government. So that's the establishment survey. How about the household survey? The unemployment. Well, you're looking for a job?

That's what you have to answer. Well, here's how they ask you that question. Still the same way. Two ways. They either knock on your door and ask you to do an interview. Well, we've never answered a door knock in 15 years. We had a BMW in the main streets of Bergen County where I live. Somebody came in and stole my wife's BMW while we were inside having pizza.

The odds of us answering the door does zero when somebody's at zero. So that's how they do it. It comes from the Census Bureau or they call your landline. Right. So who's picking that up? So I think if I ask for comments on the podcast, please comment if you have a landline, you get like two. I'm old and I don't have a landline. Well, that's the problem with owners equivalent rent. Oh, totally. So who's answering the question? But let me ask you something, Tony. So in that respect, so we have two, we have the initial, will come out tomorrow, then there'll be two revisions.

And do you think once we get to that third revision, that that's the actual number? Wait a minute. It's not because then they revised it. So think of the 800,000 plus that was just revised out that came in. Yeah, 18 through March. Well after the second revision. But they sync it with the state unemployment. Each state is collecting unemployment data because they're paying out the claims.

You would think they'd be out. It's like the ADP report. You'd think they just counted. It's ADP. How is there a... I don't understand why we're still estimating something that clearly there's a solution. We can absolutely get real-time payroll data. I just don't understand it at all. It's very, it's disheartening because think about

how the investors that got hurt by the market volatility, again, going back to who can you help, that's why I please don't react to the number no matter how many screaming voices come on TV. It is a wrong number. But what if the stock market falls and then you should react? But is it, is the? But is it directionally?

Like it's rare that you would say, oh no, there were 400,000 people filing for unemployment and then the real number turns out, oh no, it was only 50,000. Like that's not the kind of thing that happens in a month. So directionally it might have some value. Just to understand. I don't know if you remember the beginning of last year, you had a revision of like 100,000 something. Like each month now, the revisions are in the hundreds of thousands.

Remember, 70% of the companies did it in enough time for that first report is what creates the market response. So when I go on the air tomorrow morning, theoretically, if my hit does not get killed. You say, Tony told me this is all bullshit? Exactly what I want to say. I was talking to a... I did not use those words.

Okay, I used those words. But what's interesting is that, so a month ago, when we had the weaker than expected data, and then we had the unwind of the carry trade, blah blah blah, whatever, I went on the air on Monday morning, woken up at two o'clock in the morning to prepare for my 7 a.m. hit. Unnecessary producers.

The show doesn't start till seven. You don't need to call me at two. How much of that is doing your hair and makeup? I was out east. I was out east, I had to do my own. Oh my god. Unbelievable. I can wake up five minutes in front of you.

Yeah, I mean, it was crazy. I literally picked up the phone, I said, I'll talk to you in two hours, I'll be on the had to do my own. Oh my god. I can wake up five minutes in front of you. Yeah, I mean it was crazy. I literally picked up the phone I said I'll talk to you in two hours. I'll be on the air don't worry. But like I just needed some time. So, but when I went on the air everyone said you seem so calm. I said well the market is selling off it's not selling off by 22 percent which is always my bogey. And

and so there was a weaker than expected report as the first one of three. What's everyone freaking out about well? Because we we always look at a Negative surprise as being not the end in and of itself, but the start of something But wait a minute if we get a negative surprise tomorrow, let's just say oh, they think that would be the second in a row But let's say was 160 or 170. Okay, And that's right, that's what we expect. Let's say the 114 gets revised lower from the previous month, and let's say we get 100,000.

You don't tell me that everyone's going to be like, feds go in a half. I got to buy stocks. Don't also say you have margin risk because you're going to have lower revenues. This is the question I wanted to ask you guys. What would get a worse reaction from the stock market a red-hot August jobs number That calls into question, you know rate cuts for the rest of the year or a big miss the downside I think it's a big mess. I think we know we know they're cutting It was a big mess. So let me give you a Bank of America's forecast

We expect non-farm payrolls to rise by two hundred000 in August after coming in at 114,000 in July. Public sector should rise 30,000 because of local employment. Private should be 170. Education and health care should remain robust. We look for unemployment rate and labor force participation to decline a tenth each. So 4.2% unemployment, 62.6% participation. We think average hourly earnings and average weekly hours will both rise by a tenth. So that's kind of like a baseline. If it's anywhere in that vicinity, Tony, to your point, I think most people that are not algorithms that are

programmed to automatically trade will just say, okay, close enough. I don't know that most people are ready to jump off a bridge. Based on what happened on that day where Jill talked about that big down day and the weaker economic data, that's the description of what's going to happen. By the way, not bad. That's the fear. By the way, not bad. If we hit this blue line on the bottom, I mean, it's... It's in the zone. But ultimately, the

market weakness of late has been, even though I'm not watching it as closely as I did, has been fueled by recession fears. Yeah. But where is the recession indicator? I mean, last month, a friend of mine texted me as soon as a report came out. He used to run a big bond portfolio for the government actually. And he says, oh my God, we now have had four or five consecutive months of increasing unemployment rate that is always associated with the recession.

How much do you guys think that, which we never like to say, as you guys always say, don't, you know, this time is different, but this is a weird time. This is a weird time. So if the- Can I quote myself? Yes, please.

That's what I love for you. I was about to, but you should. So I say that the 12 most dangerous words in investing are this time is different. Oh no, I'm sorry. The four most dangerous words, oh my God, I fucked it up. The four most, you know what I'm trying to say. Wait, edit that out. Oh my God. Michael Bannack, ladies and gentlemen.***ed that up. The foremost, you know what I'm trying to say. Wait, edit that out.

Oh my God. Not a full band of claims. Take two. Take two. You know what I was trying to say. Don, can you keep your hand off that button? You know what I was trying to say. But I think that we're doing it right now, we always do.

Investors spend so much time talking about the risks and what we're worried about. We never talk about the upside risk or what can go right. And Bill Miller has a great quote, which I won't f*** up because I'm going to read it word for word. I think he was talking about balance. He was asked, they asked him like,

what do you worry about? And here's what he said, when I'm asked what I worry about in the market, the answer is usually nothing. Because everyone else in the market seems to spend an inordinate amount of time worrying. And so all of the relevant worries seem to be covered. And that's such a great attitude and philosophy,

not to be ignorant of the risks, of course, we're all worried. We're all worried about the next shoe to drop and what can go wrong. But the market does it for you. Like it doesn't, it's no- It's assumed there's a lot of worry around. Yeah, it's no good doing it for yourself.

In our job, it comes down to how do you, it's about ego. Were you right or were you wrong? Because we all know the numbers, you had the chart up. You can't debate the data. So what's the problem? And the problem typically is when somebody can say you were wrong.

Yeah, well so I think one of the things that you get over that really quickly is just being around long enough to know for a fact that you're going to be wrong. All right, this was surprising to me. I didn't even really truly understand the extent of this. So Wall Street Journal piece basically saying, we've had this historic influx of migrants.

They say it saved the labor market. I would also say that it helped defeat inflation. I don't think a lot of people were expecting this to be the case. But let me read this to you and I want to hear your reaction. Since the end of 2020, more than and the journal is not like a big fan of immigration, unless it helps companies bring down labor costs. Okay. Since the end of 2020, more than 9 million people have migrated to the US after subtracting those who left, coming both legally and illegally according to the CBO.

That's nearly as many as the number that came in the previous decade. Immigration has lifted US population growth to almost 1.2% a year, the highest since the 1990s. Without it, the US population would be growing 0.2% a year because of declining birth rates and would begin shrinking around — I lost it. Sorry. Where was I?

Oh, begin shrinking around 2040. Okay, but I want to do the chart. So like this is now if you're not a fan of immigration, then you're not a fan of whatever Biden's been doing for the last couple of years, because it's as plain as day. We had this tamped down immigration, both legal and illegal during the pandemic. No one's moving. Nobody's going anywhere.

And then it just absolutely exploded starting in 2022. Yeah. Remember when everyone's like, I can't find help. And then all of a sudden you have 9 million people here. Yeah. It solves your problem. I just want to remind everybody we just spent how much time talking about how great the government is at counting.

And all of a sudden, these numbers are right. So I would caution against that as well. So do you think they're over or understated if you had to guess? If I had to guess, I have no idea. That's why I have no idea. So I could give an opinion on it, and it would be a while. What about these stats? And this is the point the journal is making that the reason why?

The fight against inflation looks like it's been successful recent migrants are younger and more likely to be of working age than us-born Americans of foreigners who've arrived since 2020 78 percent are between the ages of 16 and 64 Compared with 60 percent of people born in the US. They also say that they're more likely to be in the labor force. Of recent immigrants age 16 or older, 68% the participation rate are either working or looking for a job.

Only 62% of native born Americans are in the labor force. So that's saying it's like 5 million people or equal to three percent of the labor force are basically new workers. I have to believe that that's played a role. Right, even if it's not the extent either way. And if you talk, you know we do tons of stories at CBS about small business owners and then the producers are smart. They go back, they track, they say hey what has happened since? Everybody who is ever on the air. And it's just kind of a tiny little database.

It's not nothing like huge, but anecdotally, what we learn is that people are like, yeah, I got to find some workers. And that really helped a lot. And for the ones who are actually here, perhaps not in the most legal of fashions, they can pay them under the table and that really works well for them. But ultimately, it's still a cycle. So you have a huge amount of influx.

So at the company, it's hard to find software engineers. All of a sudden, it's not as hard to find software engineers. And then a lot of software engineers are available or salespeople or whatever So that influx is there so what now what yeah one of my greatest freight, you know thoughts Well, what it means is a hotel chain Doesn't have a maid shortage. What it means is that but they'll have service restaurants But they'll eventually have a service $22 an hour anymore If you eventually respond to interest rates and the other factors that create human nature,

recessions, you don't go from shortage to just right all the time. You go from shortage to a good amount to a surplus. So we're making the assessment here at the valuations, we're at and all the other fun stuff that it's going to be perfect. The pendulum is just going to sit there right at the valuations we're at and all the other fun stuff, that it's gonna be perfect. The pendulum is just gonna sit there right at the right spot. We're gonna have the right amount of workers, the right amount of inflation, the right Fed policy. I thought it was interesting that it was, I think, the last Fed meeting, the market went up huge right before it got crushed. So the Fed was high-fiving about how they got it right. And two days later, we're in recession fear for not just a 25 basis point cut, but an

intermeeting cut. Well, the Fed said we will do whatever it takes to support the labor market, and stocks love that. Yeah. And then, right, one thing that I would say, though, is remember all the talk about when we were in, we were doing the show, when we were deep into 2022 in the summer, and we were getting these 9% inflation prints, and the Fed was already raising rates,

but not fast enough, and we were saying, like, you can't print more houses, and you can't print more workers. Like, the Fed can print money, but what they can't do is print labor. Okay, fine, but nine million migrants into the country in two years is almost like being able to print humans.

Joe, before I cut you off and then butchered my own quote, you were talking about this time is, how different it is this time. And one of the my big things over the years that I really feel strongly about is people spend way too much time trying to find the proper analog. And there really are never any great analogs

for the current period of time. Not just- You're like a truther with this stuff. Yeah, I won't let it go. And not just today, but like, and I love all the data, all the historical data that this time, that happens that time. And it's fun to talk about it,

gives us something to talk about, but it's not really useful. You know, what I always think about, to Tony's earlier point, is that when you're thinking about the things that should be keeping you up at night, I was going to put this in the document and my day got away from me. But there was, I don't know if you guys saw this in the journal today, there was a big article about the amount of money people are spending on care for people to age in their homes. It was an absolutely eye-opening and frightening article

because people are spending not just rich people, middle-income people who are forced to leave the labor force, people who say, oh, I would have been putting more money in my 401K, but I had to stop working because my mother got sick, and now I have to take care of her, and I moved in with her. So to me, these are much... It's like a much better focus

for people to consider like what are the big ticket items that are going to derail your own financial goals? I help my kids out too much, I have to help my parents, what's that going to do to me? And these are sort of, it's kind of boring, because like who doesn't, oh yeah, I really want to talk about how horrible it's going to be to get old and run out of money.

But you know personal finance is more important than the portfolio. True, but I also think the portfolio, like the hyper-folk, the amount of energy that we're putting on the portfolio and even the economy. Versus what it's there to pay for. Yeah, exactly. That's the disconnect that always feels misplaced. Well, that's why we have a job. How much do you hate the JOLTS? A lot of people hate the JOLTS. So the JOLTS survey going back to the initiation survey rate, the low it got was 8% of respondents.

When the fed started talking about JOLTS, 8.5% of you go to that data sheet that I talked about the initiation survey rate on the BLS, eight and a half percent, Josh. So nobody. That was, I believe, the month surrounding when Chair Powell started mentioning it. It's all the way up into the 20s and 30s now. Okay. So it's also like, it's bad debt. Not bad debt. It's inaccurate.

It's inaccurate. So Jolt's surprise to the downside in July came in negative 427,000. This is another thing that I learned to tune out. They were saying like there's 10 available jobs for every person that wants a job right now. Yeah, Shaloni. Bullshit. And we call it bullshit in real time. I didn't realize the extent of the bullshit. When you see how fast it's now gone negative. And I just don't believe these quit rates. I don't believe the commentary attached to the quit rates.

I think it's maybe interesting, but I don't think it's helpful. What do you think? I don't think it's helpful. Yeah, I don't think so either. And it's a one month lag also, which is also weird because it's for the previous month, not the month we're going to get for tomorrow. So this is July data that we just got earlier this week. We're going to get August data tomorrow.

Chart kid Matt did this really great visualization of the interest rate cuts expected between now and March of 2026. And of course, he's using market data, which changes all the time because people are placing bets changing their bets. Does this trajectory look like it's in the realm of possibility? Go back to March of 2022 and you had 75 basis points priced into the market as the peak rate. So looking at this chart and the idea that this is going to be right is... It is comical.

It's too smooth. Yeah. So when I used to talk about before I went gratefully to work at my family and kids company, I talked about how the market is going to be surprised at how rapidly the Fed will cut rates. They've never got it right even close. And we're making the bet that it's exactly right forever. Yeah. Right? And it looked like an idiot call that they were gonna cut by 200 basis points. If you get a tough employment report, we had an intermeeting cut on the idea of the

first data point they might have a recession because the market got blasted. Imagine if you had a negative payroll print because there will be a negative payroll print. Oh, yeah. It always happens. Right. And all of a sudden we're gonna be like, the Fed will be like... So negative payroll print meaning year over year we lose net jobs. Yeah. Yeah, they're not gonna do a 25 basis point cut after that.

I mean, you got an emergency when there might be 150. I'm 100% with you on that. I think there... Please, I... I don't know when that's coming, but I think if and when it comes, the trajectory being represented here, you could throw it out. Yeah. I mean, with all the humility of somebody that's been wrong a lot...

Next chart on this, Jon. ... for my career, you just can't look at that stuff. So this is actual. We're at the black line, and this is what's implied. Again, these are market-based. This isn't strategists or economists. This is just where the market is. But they have priced it now 3% by January of 2027.

What do you think about that? Do you think that that's where we end? I mean, I don't even know how we get there. What's the terminal low for the cycle of rates if there's no financial crisis? Because then of course we're going back to zero Right now we're suspending the fed funds are the Fed in there in their mind I know the data dependent blah blah blah Do you think in their mind they have an idea of where this the cutting cycle might?

Change it next month. Okay, all right. But this is where we are now, do you think directionally it's like a... I think directionally it's right. I think it'll probably be that 2026 number. If you get to 3%, it'll probably be a little bit faster than by 2027. So we made it almost an hour without talking about Nvidia,

but we gotta go there because Michael Sembalist wrote an incredible piece, and there's some charts in there that I wanna share that are really, really important to understand the current dynamics of the stock market. So first of all, we're going to start with a chart showing he breaks up the S&P 500 into the top 20 companies, 21 through 100, 100 through 200, 200 through 300,

and then 300 to the bottom 500. And he's showing the trailing 12 month performance. And we know that the top 20 are dominating because of the bottom 500. And he's showing the trailing 12 month performance. And we know that the top 20 are dominating because of the AI trade. But more importantly, look at the change in 2024 earnings estimates since June 2023. We've said over and over again, and it bears repeating, that the top 20 stocks, the AI trade really,

really and truly saved the market. It's the only bucket of stocks that has had positive earnings estimates changes since 2023. I can't find a time where if you look at top line growth slowing to the degree that it is on year over year basis, or margins went up. Yeah, it's unbelievable. It's the kiss of death. But what is that?

It's productivity? No, it's the top stocks. It's this chart. That's it. It's it because it's not productivity. Okay. It's literally. So I'll leave. Now's it because it's not productivity. It's literally is now is a CFO of a great company. You cannot cut your costs fast enough when you lose your revenues.

That's over. That because you have payrolls and all the other things. So the death knell of margins is revenues. It's not higher cost. Well, I was saying, oh, inflation. Yeah, it's not helpful. But ultimately, in a good inflation environment, they just raised the price of the snowmobiles or ATVs But also in this in this environment like it's so important It is I can't find a time where revenue has slowed It's not dropped slowed to the degree slowed from peak that it has now where you actually saw the S&P 500 Operating earnings margins go up, but isn't the answer to that riddle? from peak that it has now where you actually saw the S&P 500 operating earnings margins go up. But isn't the answer to that riddle we over hired in

21 and 22 and companies have right-sized their labor force we had mass layoffs. At the big ones not at the big ones or those earnings revisions wouldn't be happening. That's happening because your revenue is coming out. Is there a way out of this? No., okay lower rates won't help No, it works with leg But eventually so how so so this so this has so this guy he gets off wall shooting he turns bearish It's but so bearish, but what is bearish you know we talked about this earlier Let's talk about that for a second what creates the difference between a 1990

What creates the difference between a 1990 recession-based pullback or the great financial crisis? Right. Leverage? Both leverage, and also the banking system is flush with cash. Private equity and venture is flush with cash. You go into a crisis like the great financial crisis because you have a need for money with no access to it. There's not a need for money right yet but you have plenty of... There's too much dry powder right now. There's a lot of dry powder so how can you make the case that you're at the GFC

unless all of a sudden if the leverage on one... We were joking around like six months ago somebody was talking about like commercial real estate is gonna take the economy down. I'm like did you read the Journal this morning? Goldman Sachs is launching a distressed real estate fund right now. If everyone is excited for the distress, you probably can't get the distress. But I think you raise a really good point, which is, hey, you know what? Let's have a regular run of the mill recession and let's have a little bit of a run of the mill bear market.

What would be so bad about that? A lot of stocks are reflecting. Exactly. And so if many were there practically. We're looking at the S&P 500. I know the Russell 2000's near and all that. I mean, there are a lot of stocks that discounted a recession already. So the idea, I think we gotta be very careful, Michael,

about turning bearish, oh bearish. You wanna roll through one of some more of those? I wanna, we can go through all of them real quick. I will tell you what I said after 9-11. This is an extraordinary country with extraordinary companies and people that lead those companies and most importantly as I've seen it prompt work for those companies. Our employees are hustling, they're working hard and I think that's true at most companies. In a recession even harder. In a recession even harder because, not

because they have to, they want to. When you work at good companies, they want to work hard and that's what my experience is. So the Mag-7 is spending more on CapEx and R&D than the entire rest of the large cap index combined. It's really astounding. Does someone feel like that's sustainable, does it? Well, I don't know. I mean, I guess for a while.

Well, the good news is they're spending on each other. Yeah, exactly. I don't know if that makes you feel better, exactly. It's like the rich get richer. So speaking of that, I think this chart is, perhaps the chart of the century, it explains a lot, the largest 1% of US corporations share of assets and revenues. This is bananas to me.

It's unbelievable. So wait, can we narrate this for the people listening? The assets of the largest 1% of corporations are 97% of the total, and the revenues of the largest 1% of corporations are 97% of the total. And the revenues of the largest 1% of US corporations are over 80% of the total. And for context, in 1990, it was only 70% of revenue and it looks like 90% of assets. But like just the idea of the rich getting richer, and companies that have cumulative advantage,

and once you get big, it's easier to get even bigger. That's what you're seeing on that chart. So this, talking about how historical comparisons are nonsense, I thought this was actually a really, really good one. Michael put the AI capital spending in context, and he shows the share of market-wide capital spending, and he plots Nvidia from 2020 to today, and what expected it to be in context and he shows the share of market-wide capital spending and he plots Nvidia from 2020 to today and what expected it to be in 25 and 26

versus IBM's peak revenues In 1969 and Cisco Lucent Northall peak revenues in 2000. Only two of us were alive then. Yeah, that's right. But so 69 was the all-time cap spend. What was that? Trying to get to the moon or try to beat Russia?

What was going on? Mainframe computers. That's really what it was. Yeah, that's what it was. That was the initiative. You had to have it in an entire building to run half the speed of your watch. So the DOJ filed the suit against NVIDIA. No, we don't know.

None of that is true. None of that is true. None of that is true. Whatever, they're doing something. What are they doing? Well, first of all, nobody. It's an investigation. Nobody filed a suit.

There was talk in the media that a subpoena was sent to NVIDIA. And then NVIDIA came out and said, no, that's not true. So just because since my wife is in the regulatory relations space, what I can say is that every time. By the way, we're the ultimate, I'm not a lawyer, but. But, exactly. I'm married So like the all of these government organizations all of these regulators open up investigations all the time and

We in the media breathlessly report on it and I have to even say to people people at work, like, okay, that's not like, there's no filing. They're just saying, we're investigating. All right, so anyway, like I was saying, Jensen Wang has been arrested. So I just want to be careful with this. They better say you're kidding me. So there's a market share of data center GPUs based on 2023 revenue, and AMD is 3%.

The others combined at 5% and Nvidia is 92%. That's crazy. I mean, it's unbelievable. But the fear is heavy lies the crown, right? We know what happens when these companies get to the top spot. There's really nowhere else to go but down. This is a great one. So Michael shows what happens to these top stocks going back in history.

General Motors, IBM, Altria, Cisco, GE, Exxon. This is what happens after they get to the point where they're the biggest. After they get to the number one spot, which is those gray bars, they've all done really, really poorly with the exception of one, Apple. Apple took the number one spot in 2011, 2012, and then Microsoft took it in 2000, crashed,

and it took it back, and it's been OK. But these tech giants are really changing the nature. Is it Nvidia Apple, or is it Cisco? Well, that's the question. I think that's a really big question. So I think two things can be true that sound contradictory, but they're not. Cisco has earned the valuation that it

is with the margins, the growth, the estimates rationing higher, and it's also true that due to its current valuation, it will probably, probably disappoint at some point in the future. In fact, it will definitely disappoint at some point in the future, but it will probably have lower returns going forward

than people are expecting based on valuations. Is that reasonable? You know, I. I don't like to. I can't comment on individual stocks like so it'd be if I gave an answer, I'm going to turn it to Joe. Oh, who knows? Tell us. Give us your price target and video. I told you what I wanted you to do with your Nvidia stock already. I gave you my best idea, which is gifted into a donor

advised fund and be generous. Support my ride. Obviously obviously you could do that. But I mean, I think that people who don't- You're gonna get a huge check. I can't wait. You're getting the ask also, so just pipe down over there. I'm sensing it, I'm feeling it. But he's gonna pay more.

What I do think is that, going back to that, when I said this guy quality, because I don't know how to sell, if you're playing and you're having fun and your fun money account and you've made a bunch of money in Nvidia There's nothing wrong with saying let me take some money off the table Let me see what else is out there except if it goes from 106 to 200

There are people who just bought it at 80 and they'll say I can't believe I did that okay But they don't have to do the whole thing saying that's why it's hard That's why there's another lesson from 37 years of this game. I never, that's wrong. I've sold too late. My problem in investing has not been selling too late. It's been selling too early. Me too. All this.

And it's not a comment out of Nvidia. I disclaim that. Yeah. But I remember buying a five-letter stock at like seven, thinking I, no, at four, at four. And in three weeks, I'm a hero at seven. Gotta take the prop, gotta take, you know, when it got taken over at 50, I'm an idiot. Yeah.

Facebook's the only stock that I bought at the bottom. I bought it like literally at the bottom at $90, and I sold it I think at 180 or 200. It's at 517. I mean, but, and you can do the other way, by the way, with all my colleagues at CBS who were playing that, oh, it's going up, there's a spiking to 90 and 100. I'm like, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, and...

What pieces of shit these media companies are, it's unbelievable. Oh, do you want to have a little moment about that? No, no, we don't want to do that. I want to just touch on the election. I don't want to spend any time here, really, or a lot of time here, but if you guys have a take or an opinion Goldman Sachs very surprisingly came out and said US GDP will actually take a hit if Trump wins and it will be boosted if the Democrats sweep so this is a Bloomberg article it's not my opinion let me be very clear

Goldman Sachs economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in November, cautioning the U.S. GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Trump. Quote, we estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse from maintaining tax cuts. That's a Goldman economist, Alec Phillips. GDP would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage points in the second half of next year in that scenario

with the effects abating in 2026. That's assuming like 20% hike in China, tariffs, blah, blah, blah. If Kamala Harris and the Democrats secure control of both chambers of commerce, quote, new spending and expanded middle income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates. That would result in a very slight boost to GDP over 25 and 26. What are your thoughts? Is it impossible to really do that kind of analysis? I think it is.

I think it's just it's a great guess That gets on you know, I we're talking about it respect the Goldman Yeah economists and Goldman's a great firm. I often get asked, you know I was gonna say how many elections have you had to comment on? Strategist all of them all of them. Yeah, like since you know, so I We often get asked if Trump wins or if Kamala wins, what's the market going to do? And we come up with an answer, which is crazy, because it depends on how the market's acting

going into it. Okay. If the market's up 10%- What's the set up? What's the set up? You cannot react to, you can't trade something today on a guess in the hopes that it acts the way you think it's going to do Before you've seen how it reacts going in. Do you think volatility will ratchet up going into the election? Yeah, I do. I do as well. And that's not like an out of consensus call. I think that's what most people expect. Yep, I think so. I think I think that

Interesting when you look at you know, all these people who think they know what's gonna happen with this, that, that. We don't know. And to our earlier point, our callback is, if you are a short-term investor, you can try to game it out and do the best you can. And if you're a long-term investor, look past it. Look past it. I know that there is sort of a bugaboo about taxes,

and without taking a big opinion, what I wanna be clear about is that corporate tax rates are locked in. Personal is not. And the personal tax situation will be sunsetting at the end of 2025, meaning we revert back to before the Trump administration tax cuts. This is a massive issue. And if they do nothing, they will revert back. So if we have divided government and everyone's freaking out and we can't,

we're going back to where we were in 2016. And by the, remember that Obama let that happen. And you know what? I think that when they let that happen in Obama, that actually delayed the recovery from the financial crisis. I think there'll be a deal. I think there'll be a deal because I don't think the Democrats want to run in the next cycle as the tax hike party, even though they are the tax hike party.

Show of hands, who wants their taxes going up? I'm willing to pay more taxes. I really am because I think tax rates are so low, but what it would say to me is right now everybody better convert to Roths as quickly as you possibly can if you really think tax rates are going up. I just heard Kamala Harris today basically trying to, I think, preempt the debate, say, okay, remember we were talking about 40% capital gains tax for million dollar

annual income households? Now we won't do that, we'll do 28. It's at 20 now. 28's not great. It's 23.8. It's 23.8 for the highest, right? Right. But so 28 is not great, but she's already countering what she knows he's going to do with the debate, which is turn that into a huge issue. But at the end of the day, nobody should be investing thinking they know how markets are

going to react or even the economy is going to react at this point. We have no idea if there are these tariffs, if there's like, if they're a real trade war. I mean, I think that in 2018, we probably would have had much more robust growth had we not had a lot of our trade shenanigans going on, but we did, but we did fine. So who cares? Like, well, that's the point, because you're going to do this every four years, you're going to try and guess every four years, you're going to get it right. You also have to understand how the players on the board have changed. It used to be the major active portfolio managers drove the day-to-day and intermediate term stock market.

Now it's algos, quants, and passive. Right? There's no new money coming into active management. That's why there's not a great calendar of IPOs and secondaries taking place. Because if there's no net new money coming into active- Who's going to buy these new stocks? The indexes won't buy them. Well, they can buy them, but they got to sell it.

The indexes can't buy them. So the active manager has to sell something to buy it because they don't want to be in, especially given how the market's acting acting and a lot of cash. So the capital markets in the public markets have a challenge and that is until you find a new flow of funds into the public markets, you're going to be driven much more by the algos and the quants and the index folks than you are from a smart player that you're advising. The algos aren't as fearful about election outcomes. Correct.

So what do you do in a situation like that? And what I've tried to do in Guide is, rather than trying to anticipate what happens when either one wins, I want to be prepped based on how it... If it's up 10% how it's going in, raise a little bit of cash so that you can act on a dislocation that might come from either side. I love that concept of I'd rather react correctly

than predict correctly. Correct. I probably can't predict correctly. I know I can't. Before we run out of time, I want to do one more thing. I thought this was really interesting and definitely a sign of the times. The New York Times, it did a piece two days ago,

was this summer the European tourism reached, was this the summer European tourism reached a breaking point? They have these photos of Santorini and some of these places in like Greece and Italy that have just become so incredibly overrun by Americans with their selfie sticks and their fanny packs. These are towns that are two thousand years old they're not built to accommodate cruise ships dumping three hundred thousand people a day onto these islands who very rarely spend that much money once they get on the island the locals are shooting these people with

with water guns they're doing graffiti on the walls no more tourists like the locals have had enough and I as, as an Instagram user, have also had enough. Like honestly, congratulations on your on Mykonos. Go f*** yourself. I'm good. I saw you last year in the south of France. I saw you the year before in Puglia. I don't give a s*** then.

Definitely don't give a s*** now. Says the guy who posts everywhere. My Instagram is a work of art. Everyone else is, it's like enough with Europe. You really gotta go see, no I don't have an Instagram. Did you know anyone who wasn't in Europe this summer? Well I'll tell you what I- You mean outside of the Dwyer's?

How do you like how he answered that question? Yeah. How do you like how he asked that question? Did you know anyone who was not in Europe this summer? I will tell you that of my cohort, especially if you're not on the academic calendar, nobody's traveling to Europe in July or August. You have to be an idiot, right?

No way. And so it's October and November and actually December are the new big months because guess what? Climate change. You don't want to be in Puglia in the middle of August and all that. So I did that two years. I was in a Malfi in July. It's awesome.

Two summers ago. I went through like five t-shirts a day it was just it was almost like you can't breathe vacationing on the surface of the Sun yeah so fun um you know I think that what's also funny is that those weird clickbait stories which I clicked on by the way because I did want to see those pictures but I also think that you

know what does it feel like to be the person who's like I make 50 grand a, and I'm looking at the New York Times, and I'm looking at this. Like, I hate everybody in this, in this story. And I just, I don't know, like, kind of bums me out that, like, that's what we're covering. Well, once they see these pictures, they're not going to say, I wish I was in... Yeah, I wish I could go to Trenton in August. I wish I was in Athens. They have, like, people dropping dead on the steps of the apocalypse. Yeah, exactly. We could do that here. I had to go to Tampa for work in July. I said I'm the only schmuck.

Oh, the Europe of the Southeast. Exactly right. I had to go to Tampa for exactly one day. Shout out to our Tampa fans. By the way, you know that I'm wearing this beautiful shirt. I get to Tampa, no cabs, right? I'm a nice gay girl. I'm a nice Jewish gay girl from New York City. Very liberal. No Uber? There was no cabs, I get an Uber, I get into the Uber, the guy's wearing a MAGA hat.

All right, rock and roll. So what is, I made a decision in the moment, I was proud of myself actually, I said, you know what, it's a human being. That's right. You don't have to like be a bitch about this, you can just be like, okay, how you doing today? How's your work going?

How's your rides been? And that was very nice. Did you say that or did you just think it in your head? No, I said it. I engaged with him. I decided I was like, I'm not gonna do it. It's weird to be an Uber driver and pick somebody up in a MAGA hat.

It's almost like you want half your customers not to tip you. It's a weird thing. It's a bad business decision. But anyway, that's what I can share with you. You guys have fun on the show today? No, it's terrible. All right, we'll do it all over again. Fabulous.

Guys, it's been such an honor and such a pleasure. Tony, as we said at the top, we revere you and we just want to say thank you so much for everything that you've done and thank you for coming by today. Thank you. Congratulations. Now that you're off Wall Street, we can have you back, but you can come on from the perspective of somebody running a small business. Yeah. Well, I help the guys run that.

I help the employees run the small business. But I do want to say, there's a new generation, I think, of people with great insight, and I think you're in there, and I hope that you stay with it. And I hope that you maintain the integrity and honesty that you show, that you show during because people need it. There's and Michael you know goes without saying with you. You know as a team you guys, I look at you guys as a team. We appreciate that. But also I would be remiss to not thank Canaccord for the years and the quality they gave me.

Oh 100% shout out to Canaccord. While I was there for 14 years and the people that I worked with. Shout out to Kinecourt. Very grateful for my kids letting me work there and the employees that we serve. Do you have a favorite for us? What do you mean? Book, movie, TV show, restaurant, trip, anything that the fans want to hear? I wish I'm going to go to Alaska probably for my 60th.

Okay. Amazing. Do some halibut fishing, maybe go take a float plane into the interior and catch some big trout. Alaska a little bit more habitable than Puglia. Buddy, can you see me sitting on a beach doing nothing? That's a heart attack. I'm an outdoorsman myself and I went to, right Duncan?

I went to Alaska. Duncan is like in hysterics over here from you today. I went to Alaska a couple of years ago to Alaska. Duncan is like in hysterics over here from you today. I went to Alaska a couple years ago. Fabulous. Just incredible. I had a great time. I went there one time, did halibut fishing.

That was bananas. And I also want to thank Jill for her kindness and the time that I was there. You don't even know me, but thank you. You're a doll. Jill, do you have a favorite for us? I have a great favorite for you. Hit me.

There is a woman, a writer. Do you guys watch that show on Apple that was called, Fleshman is in Trouble? I loved. Okay. So the author of that book is Taffy Broduser-Akner. Mouthful, I get it. She wrote a book called The Long Island Compromise.

I'm in. Okay. Done. So I just got to tell you like a little bit of the setup is that there was a kidnapping in Nassau County of a manufacturing guy. This is true. It happened in the 70s. She was friends with this guy's son.

The guy was kidnapped for five days like a, you know, like a first generation Jewish guy lived in the North Shore. And the so that this is a fictionalized version of what happens to the kids, the three kids, and the story evolves and you learn about like from everybody's point of view. I loved it. It is fiction. It is the description you guys will laugh. Just I mean, I know no disrespect to everybody watching, but like there are certain things that you really have to know from Long Island that would make you laugh yourselves. Like how long it took for them to get to JFK to LaGuardia or whatever.

And, and, um, it's well written. It's very engaging and it is an intense family drama. I cannot recommend it more. High. I love it. Excellent book. And it's called Long Island, Long Island compromise. I felt like that was like for me. Or for us.

Yeah. I loved that. Yeah, it was interesting. And it was interesting how she turned the story around. It was great. Yeah, it was very good. I really enjoyed it. You guys want to see a good movie? Yeah.

100%. Michael Keaton fans? Yeah. Knox Goes Away is the best movie I've seen in 2024. Wow. It was Netflix? What network is Knocks Goes Away? Is that Netflix? Yo, are you on the planet with us today?

What do you mean? I'm looking, yeah. I know, you're looking at it right in front of you. So what network is it on? Before I tell people the wrong place. I think it's on Netflix. I saw this movie. I think it's Netflix.

Did you watch it? Yeah. This is unbelievable. Some of the best acting that you will ever see. Michael Keaton basically has a form of dementia and it's like really quick onset. Oh, yeah. What is it on? It's on Max. Max, okay.

Alright, so he has like this form of dementia and his kid gets in trouble. This adult kid who he's estranged from and he basically has like a week to help his kid get out of this jam and I should also tell you he's a professional hitman. It is unbelievable. Okay, I'm in. And the supporting actors, some of these actors just come in and they do one scene but they're so good you almost like can't even believe. It's a movie not a series? It's a movie. Okay.

It's an hour and a half movie. Okay. It's not a huge commitment and it is unbelievable. I'd be shocked if they don't nominate him for a million awards. So highly recommend it. I was thinking of American Assassin. I did not see Knox Goes Away. This is back-to-back like action moves from Michael Keaton. That's weird. I learned I saw today, Ramp Text sent me this DM. It was a New York Post. Michael Keaton's real name? Michael Batnick. Michael Douglas. Oh, that's kind of weird. Really?

His actual name is Michael Douglas. You know, there was another one of those weeks. I guess so. He couldn't go by Michael Douglas. I think that those, some of those streamers, like the movies that go straight to the streamers, I lose, I just don't, I lose the thread. So that's Exxon.

So if they put this into a movie theater in 1989, there would be a line down the block to see it. If they do it now, it doesn't even earn the P&A money back, prints and advertising. So I understand why it's going direct, but I think that's part of the cool factor that you could just watch a cinema quality film on a streamer the day it comes out, you know, to wait nine months

to go to Blockbuster. The movie Hitman with Glenn Powell on Netflix. Incredible movie. And actually, The Hollywood Reporter wrote an article today about Neon and A24, these two indie studios that are competing head to head. Neon wanted to bring that movie, Hitman, to the theater. They offered $10 million to distribute it,

and Netflix came in over the top with 20, so not in the movie theater, straight to Netflix. and it still worked. It's still a great movie. All right guys. That's it from us this week I want to say special. Thank you to our two guests Mr.. Tony Dwyer And of course Jill Schlesinger of Jill on Money. When's your next episode on the Compound? I don't know. I have to see if I can convince these guys

to actually tape me at future proof. All right, you're going to be at future proof. Duncan, step in. Hey, great job this week. John, Duncan, Rob, Daniel, Nicole, Graham, Sean, Charged Kid Matt. Thank you so much much Compound Nation. Thanks for listening.

We'll talk to you soon. We're out. Is that a good show? That was fun. That was great. That was fun. That was fun. That was fun. Thanks for watching!