The Daily - Can Abortion Still Save the Democrats?

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

With an unpopular president and soaring inflation, Democrats knew they had an uphill battle in the midterms.But the fall of Roe v. Wade seemed to offer the party a way of energizing voters and holding... ground. And one place where that hope could live or die is Michigan.Guest: Lisa Lerer, a national political correspondent for The New York Times.Background reading: Some top Democrats say that their party has focused too much attention on abortion rights and not enough on worries about crime or the cost of living.The outcome of the midterms will affect abortion access for millions of Americans. Activists on both sides are focused on races up and down the ballot.For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

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Starting point is 00:00:00 From The New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily. With midterm elections only weeks away, pressure is high. Democrats could lose their majority in the House, and at least a dozen states where the governor is currently a Democrat could go Republican. Heading into the midterms, the Democrats knew they had an uphill battle. Midterms are always tough for the party that's currently in the White House. You know, the price of gas has skyrocketed seemingly overnight. The latest Suffolk University USA Today poll shows President Biden's approval rating has now hit a new low of 38 percent.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Not only does the party in power usually lose, they're also facing down a flagging economy and an unpopular president. In this historic decision, the Supreme Court has now overturned Roe v. Wade. Overturned Roe v. Wade. But then this summer, Roe fell. And we're here to say this decision must not stand. Voters in what you might call ruby slipper red Kansas overwhelmingly sided with abortion rights advocates. And Democrats thought that maybe this gives them a chance.
Starting point is 00:01:09 Democrats at aligned parties have raised more than $80 million since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. That they could capitalize on this anger over abortion rights and prevent a total blowout at the polls. Pennsylvania is seeing a surge in new voters. That includes those who are under 25 years old and women. Ohio is seeing a huge surge in voter registrations, which is unusual for a midterm year. Today, my colleague Lisa Lair on one place where this Democratic hope could live
Starting point is 00:01:40 or die. Michigan. It's Friday, November 4th. Lisa, you've been reporting on abortion and the politics around abortion for a long time, and it's been a big issue in these midterm elections. You've told us that Michigan is really the place where we should look to understand how abortion will play in the midterms. So why Michigan? You have 13 red states where abortion is mostly, if not completely, banned. You have a whole bunch of blue states where the governors have taken steps to expand abortion access and make it easier for people to come from out of state into those places and get abortions. And then you have this whole group of states in the middle that are politically perhaps a little more swingy where abortion rights really hang in the balance. And chief among them is Michigan.
Starting point is 00:02:49 In states like Michigan, Democratic governors have blocked anti-abortion legislation proposed by Republican legislatures. It has a Republican legislature, and it currently has a Democratic governor. And that Democratic governor is up for re-election, Gretchen Whitmer. This Supreme Court ruling has said every state's going to have different rights
Starting point is 00:03:10 for women in their state borders. And it also has a trigger law, which is a 1931 law that would basically ban abortion in the state. And in Michigan, we will go from being a pro-choice state
Starting point is 00:03:23 to if this 1931 law goes into effect, we will have the most extreme law on the books in the country. And so we are fighting like hell. I have filed a lawsuit. It hasn't been enacted. It's been stayed by a lawsuit filed by Governor Whitmer. But it's on the books. So at this point, Michigan women still have access to abortion care. But this injunction is in the process of being appealed. So it's a precarious moment, and that's why we've got to continue this fight. So the first way abortion is on the ballot is with this gubernatorial election. If a Democrat wins that race, Gretchen Whitmer, she continues to fight against that law. If the
Starting point is 00:04:02 Republican, Tudor Dixon, wins the race, it's far more likely that that law goes into effect. My position on abortion is clear. I am pro-life with exceptions for life of the mother. But I understand that this is going to be decided by the people of the state of Michigan or by a judge. So that's the first way that abortion's effectively on the ballot. That's the first way. Then there's this other way. And this is what makes Michigan a bit more unique. There's Proposal 3, or Prop 3, and that is a ballot measure that would essentially establish a right to reproductive freedom, is how they phrase it in the state's constitution.
Starting point is 00:04:40 So it would put the Roe standard back in place in Michigan and go a little further. It would enshrine a right to make and carry all decisions about things like pregnancy and contraception and infertility and sterilization, miscarriage management, all the things that Democrats and liberals and people who support abortion rights are worried about in this post-Roe environment. people who support abortion rights are worried about in this post-Roe environment. Now, it's not the only state with this kind of initiative. California has one on the ballot. Vermont has one on the ballot. But it is the only swing state with this kind of initiative. So it really is a test of how voters in competitive areas feel in some ways about abortion rights. So abortion is on the ballot in Michigan because if the Republican wins, they could very easily have an abortion ban come January, right? And then abortion, of course, is also literally on the ballot in Prop 3. Right. So Democrats know there is this population of people in the state, largely Democrats, some independent voters as well, who support abortion rights. And they suspect that they will come out and vote in favor of Prop 3 in November.
Starting point is 00:05:50 And then Democrats hope that they will also vote Democratic down the rest of the ticket. Okay, so in terms of the politics then, it sounds like that Democrats are thinking that, number one, abortion should be protected in the state constitution. Democrats are thinking that, number one, abortion should be protected in the state constitution. But number two, Democrats should be using abortion as a motivator in the midterms, which, of course, is what the Republicans have been doing for years, right? Using abortion as a tool, a fire that they really light underneath their base to bring them to the polls on Election Day. Yeah, I mean, not just for years. For decades, Republicans have been using abortion to turn out their voters.
Starting point is 00:06:31 But it wasn't always like this. It was a strategy that really started back in the 1960s and 70s. There was a Republican strategist named Paul Weyrich. God gave us a purpose. God put us here for some reason. Everything that we do here is aimed at the next world or it ought not to be done. Who saw the potential to turn evangelical voters into this really firm block for Republicans. And the way he thought that could be done was by motivating them around their opposition to abortion rights. We feel today that we are participating in the murder of the unborn to vote for anyone
Starting point is 00:07:13 who is not totally opposed to this biological holocaust. And this idea got to Reagan. Is an unborn child a human being? I happen to believe it is. And this idea got to Reagan, who campaigned against abortion when other Republican candidates previously had hedged a little bit. And he won in a landslide. And it became a rallying cry that was really taken up by a broad swath of the party. For years, a terrible form of violence has been directed against children who are inches from birth. It's something George W. Bush used to win re-election in 2004. Today at last, the American people and our government have confronted the violence
Starting point is 00:07:59 and come to the defense of the innocent child. He signed a partial birth abortion ban in November 2003, just as that campaign was getting started. And it's something even former President Donald Trump used. I've become pro-life. I was in a meek fashion pro-choice, but I've become pro-life. He was not someone who was particularly known as a champion of combating abortion rights. I will protect it. And the biggest way you can protect it is through the Supreme Court and putting people on the court. And actually, the biggest way you can protect it, I guess,
Starting point is 00:08:37 is by electing me president. He put out this list of judges during his campaign. We will appoint, I will appoint judges that will be pro-life, and we'll see what about overturning. And that was really new. Never had anyone been so explicit about naming the judges that they would potentially appoint and saying explicitly that they would be against abortion and that they could, as a result, overturn Roe. And he won evangelicals that way. And a lot of those evangelicals
Starting point is 00:09:05 maybe voted for someone else in the primary, but when it came to that general election, they voted for Donald Trump in 2016. And then they did it again in 2020. Hi, sorry to bother you, but we're journalists talking to people about the midterm election happening in the state. Are you guys planning on voting?
Starting point is 00:09:24 Yes. Of course. Of course. Of course. I am, absolutely. Daily producer Jessica Chung and I went to Kent County in Michigan to this mall in a Republican area. And sure enough, we found people who totally reflected this commitment to this issue.
Starting point is 00:09:38 Abortion is number one. The pro-life movement is my biggest stance. I guess that's the most important thing to me. Any other issues? No, abortion is how I vote. And to voting Republican. And on your ballot, is it like a straight ticket to Republican? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:55 Like in our church yesterday, our pastor did talk about Prop 3. And what does the Bible say? Well, it says right in the Bible that you shall not murder. What are you doing the rest of the ticket? Straight Republican. Right. And the reason why this has been so powerful, so potent for Republicans for so long is because they wanted to affect some change, right? Like Roe was the law of the land and they wanted to change that. And that's a motivation. And it's why it wasn't that for Democrats. They were happy with the status quo. But obviously now that whole thing has flipped and the Democrats are trying to be the change agents. So here's my question for you, Lisa. Can they employ the same playbook and use abortion and the popularity of abortion rights to their advantage? playbook and use abortion and the popularity of abortion rights to their advantage. That is one of the central questions of these midterms. Will this threat to abortion rights not only bring people out to vote to support abortion rights and bring back some kind of
Starting point is 00:10:56 Roe-like standard in their state, but will it bring people out to vote who will vote for all Democrats or even get people who maybe voted Republican in the past to flip over to voting for Democrats in the way that it really unified and brought out evangelicals for Republicans for so many decades. It's a rainy day in Grand Rapids where it is about 40 degrees.
Starting point is 00:11:22 So Jess and I wanted to see how people on the ground who are connecting the issue of abortion rights to Democratic candidates on the ticket, how they're doing. Did you see there was yoga for reproductive freedom? Oh, really? Yeah. So one of the first things we do is we go to the offices of this group called the Michigan People's Campaign. This is our canvas team.
Starting point is 00:11:46 Hello. Hi. Good morning. Good morning. Jamie, Kelly, Samantha, Kaya, Evan, Dylan. Nice to meet you guys. And they've been door-knocking six days a week trying to turn out voters and trying to convince people to vote for a slate of Democratic candidates,
Starting point is 00:12:04 not just Whitmer, who's running for governor, but also the Democratic candidates for attorney general, for secretary of state, for Congress, and the state Supreme Court. Can we do a practice role play, just to start the week with a role play? Who would like to go? And part of what they do in this meeting is they role play. They rehearse what they're going to say to voters when they open the door. Hi there. So sorry to bother you. My name's Dylan with the Michigan People's Campaign. We're hoping to speak with Samantha. Might that be you? Yes. Awesome. Awesome.
Starting point is 00:12:36 So we are just going around giving out some information about props one, two, and three for November's election. Have you had a chance to take a look at any of those? I have not. Okay. Well, if you've got a quick minute, I'd love to tell you about them. And the thing they lead with, which is really interesting, is the proposals, including Prop 3. Women's Reproductive Rights Proposal 3, very important one this year. Needs not explaining, women deserve to have the rights to determine what they do with their bodies when it comes to pregnancy, miscarriage management and infertility sterilization, you name it. And this is really the pitch they're making to voters,
Starting point is 00:13:18 that if you support Prop 3, you should support these Democratic candidates too. We also have some information here about the candidates that we are endorsing that feel the same way. Have you had a chance to take a look at any of these candidates? And after the role-playing exercise, Casey Kopp, who's directing this field operation, asked the room. Can anyone explain to me why, again, we lead with the issues Dylan did, proposals one, two, and three? Why do we do that first? Can anyone explain to me? Because they're not really, they're not really partisan. I mean, everyone needs explaining, I think. Precisely. Now remember, many folks that we're talking to do not understand or not necessarily know who all the candidates are from top down. Many people have heard of Whitmer. Some people have heard of Benson. Even fewer
Starting point is 00:14:07 people have heard of the state legislative candidates. But in order to connect our issues to the candidates, we are getting people to say yes to supporting these super popular issues. Proposal 3, women's rights. Proposal 2, voting rights. These are the issues that we connect them to the candidates because the candidates that we support support those issues and those ballot proposals will not get instituted without their allies in office. So that's why we do that, right? Correct.
Starting point is 00:14:41 And they're finding that this is kind of working for them. Have you guys had much luck with convincing people to vote Democrat using Prop 3? Most definitely. 100%. I heard that while I was knocking Saturday. People who would, when the first question we ask is, do you plan to vote in November? And their answer is no. I'll ask why. And they'll say it's just not what they care about right now. They've never really been interested in politics. And I said, well, do you know about the proposals that are on the ballot? And I'll explain the proposals. And their eyes get big and they're
Starting point is 00:15:14 going like, oh, okay, when is the election? And I'll highlight it on the information that we're giving to them. And they're going to go, okay, I'm going to make sure that I get this done. that we're giving to them, they're going to go, okay, I'm going to make sure that I get this done. And we get more people going, I didn't know it was that kind of thing, because they're looking at taking away more of our rights, and we can't afford to let them do that. So more people have told me, yes, I haven't voted in a while, but I'm definitely going to go out now. At the same time, because of the headwinds facing Democrats, Prop 3 has become sort of a lifeline for them. Without Prop 3 on the ballot, where do you think you would be at this point in the election? That is a great question, Jess.
Starting point is 00:15:57 You know, because that would make our jobs so much harder, because then we would just have to focus on these issues that for 80% of the population, they don't know anything really about politicians beyond like the top of the ticket. So having to argue to someone things that Gretchen Whitmer has accomplished in her four years as governor are great. Preschool education, car insurance, things like that are awesome that she has accomplished. But for most people that aren't focused on the politics of the state legislature, they're just like looking at the economy and are worried about their investments. They're worried about housing. They're worried about groceries and gas. And having to overcome those issues without the larger things at play, such as voting rights, such as women's rights, reproductive freedom, those are the issues that we would really be struggling to convince people if we didn't have those on the ballot.
Starting point is 00:17:02 He basically says that without Prop 3, Democrats would be in a much harder position in Michigan. Do you think, like, Democrats would be doing better nationally if there were more Prop 3s on? Oh, definitely. Definitely. Absolutely. I think it's something that everyone should consider doing, I really think. It's really making a difference in our efforts for sure. We'll be right back.
Starting point is 00:18:03 So, Lisa, you laid out how, from the point of view of Democratic volunteers trying to turn out voters, Prop 3 is a godsend. That they're seeing a real reason to be hopeful about the idea that having abortion on the ballot will end up turning out voters who then vote for Democrats. You know, becoming the kind of political boon that it has been to Republicans all these decades. But I guess the question to me is, how powerful a tool will it actually be? Like, how deep does it go? Totally. And that really is the central question here. I mean, we know from polling, and polling on abortion is not great, but we know that a majority of people support some kind of abortion rights. You know, how long into the pregnancy they support it varies, but they support some kind of it. But does that trump these other real concerns that people have
Starting point is 00:18:51 right now, things like inflation, economic uncertainty? Are they going to prioritize abortion in their votes or are they going to prioritize these other issues? And this is, of course, personal and really complicated. And so we wanted to really go deep on this, Jess and I. So we talked to a lot of people in Michigan, a lot of people in Kent County, and one of them really stood out to us, someone who abortion had fundamentally transformed their relationship with politics. Hi. Hi. Hi. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:19:23 Hi, I'm Lisa. Nice to meet you. Come on in. So her name is Amanda Stratton. She's 37 years old. She lives in Berry County, which is a very conservative area in Michigan. And she's a stay-at-home mom with her two young kids. And actually, when we went over to her house, she was very kind, and she let us come right before their bedtime, which everyone knows is the craziest time to visit anyone's house. Hello. Hi. What's your name? Colin. Colin.
Starting point is 00:19:56 My name is Charlotte. Charlotte, nice to meet you guys. What are you guys reading? This book is about snuggle bear. It's about a little sad and then snuggle bear and give him nice big hugs. So the bear gives hugs. Yes. When I cry, I hug my mom. And after a little while, her husband brought the kids up to bed. And then we were able to sit down with Amanda at her dining room table. So are you, would you describe yourself as a Democrat, Republican, Independent?
Starting point is 00:20:37 I think I would kind of label myself as an Independent. I've voted Republican and Democrat in the past. Yeah, I don't know. My family is all very Republican. That's kind of where I'm from here in West Michigan is definitely Republican leaning. So that's kind of all I knew. And her story starts pretty close to where she lives now. She grew up about 30 minutes away in Ionia County. I'm from kind of a small farming community. It's a very conservative area. We grew up kind of going to church. My mom, you know, would bring us along and everything. And her family's just kind of standard Republican. They vote for Republicans, but they're not super political. She said in her family they never really talked about politics at all, but conservative values were super political. She said in her family, they never really talked
Starting point is 00:21:25 about politics at all, but conservative values were kind of just in the air. Growing up, I definitely would probably say I was pro-life. What did you think an abortion was growing up? I mostly thought it was, you know, people that just didn't want to have a baby. I'm a firstborn, so I felt like I had to kind of be the good girl, the good example for my siblings. I guess I personally thought that I would never have an abortion. So that's how she grew up, and that's how she was for many, many years, until a few years ago, and something unexpected started happening. few years ago and something unexpected started happening. When my husband and I, we had our first son. And when we were starting to try for our second child. She has her son in 2015. She gets
Starting point is 00:22:14 pregnant pretty easily. And then two years later in 2017, she starts trying for a second kid. Everything was seeming to be on track and go well. And then we went to our 12-week appointment where we were excited to hear the heartbeat and there was no heartbeat. So they did an ultrasound and discovered that there was no baby actually growing in the sack. So I took the pill. My body wasn't starting to miscarry on its own. So I took the medicine that they give you if you were to go have an abortion just to expel everything from my body. And so she's having a miscarriage. The doctor gives her an abortion pill to help expel the fetal tissue. But she starts bleeding a lot.
Starting point is 00:23:01 I actually passed so much blood that I passed out. And my husband had to call 911 and was taken to the hospital. When I was at the hospital, they did an emergency DNC because not everything was passing like it should be. So that was extremely traumatic. And she's rushed the hospital where they do an emergency DNC. And this is the procedure. It's a surgical procedure where the doctors extract the fetal tissue that hasn't been expelled by your body. It's also the procedure that's used in abortions. But this is a miscarriage. There's no heartbeat detectable or no fetal activity.
Starting point is 00:23:38 But fundamentally, it's the same procedure. I was going for the beta blood work and And about six months later, she gets pregnant again. And went, I think, two or three times. And then my numbers started to drop. So I knew it was happening again. And she has another miscarriage. And as she's recounting her third miscarriage. I'm trying to think here. I'm trying to think when month-wise this was. It becomes clear she couldn't remember the date. Let me check my notes on this. Okay.
Starting point is 00:24:11 I do have, this is how I kept track of everything. This calendar basically represents our two and a half years of infertility and just kind of helps me remember those pregnancies that we had. Amanda ended up having five miscarriages, back to back, between 2017 and 2019. Wow, five miscarriages. Yeah, it's a lot. And then in 2019, we got pregnant, my seventh pregnancy, and that resulted in my daughter. Wow. Did you keep this real time?
Starting point is 00:24:51 Yeah. Wow. And so this calendar, which is really an extraordinary log of this really difficult period of her life, forms this picture of this transformation where her views on abortion begin to change. And I point to the start of that calendar. So here, in January 1, 2017, you're pro-life? Yeah. Yeah. And then here?
Starting point is 00:25:18 Well, here, it looks like September 14, 2019. Are you still pro-life at that point? Have your views started to change? For sure. I definitely am pro-choice right now. I guess I had never really, you know, in medical terms, a miscarriage is labeled as an abortion. I didn't know that before I went through, you know, what we went through. And around the time that she's going through this intensely difficult period of her life,
Starting point is 00:25:51 Donald Trump is president. She doesn't really like him. Just how he treats people. For me, it's much more, I'm seeing a lot of the extreme right wing. And so she starts to turn away from the Republican Party. And then in June, Roe falls. That was a huge changing point. I never thought that we'd have to worry about this. I mean, I was in disbelief. Just knowing if Roe would have been overturned a few years ago when we were going through all of this and how my medical care would have changed.
Starting point is 00:26:32 I just think it's insane that doctors are having to consult with lawyers before they can give this medical care that's needed right away. Going through a miscarriage is so traumatic. this medical care that's needed right away. Going through a miscarriage is so traumatic, but when you would possibly have to prove that you're having a miscarriage and not having an abortion, it just compounds the trauma. That moment when Ro fell, what was going through your mind as the thing that you didn't believe would happen happened? Started thinking about my daughter and just, I couldn't believe that this protection that her grandma had and I had was being taken away now. And it just scares me for what the future looks like for her and other young girls. I think it's like one in eight women are sexually assaulted in their life. In college,
Starting point is 00:27:26 I was sexually assaulted and thankfully it didn't result in a pregnancy. But if that were to happen to my daughter and she became pregnant, I would want her to have that option. So this is prop three. We know how you're going to vote on that. What about the rest of the ticket? What are your plans? I plan to vote straight Democrat down my ballot. And so in this election, Amanda decided to vote Democratic. And she started talking to her family about politics and abortion, which is something that, as we said, she never really did before. My mom had posted something on her Facebook page, kind of in support of Tudor Dixon, who is the Republican that's running for governor here in Michigan.
Starting point is 00:28:10 And she has a very extreme pro-life stance on abortion. She doesn't believe in abortion, in rape or incest. I saw that on my mom's Facebook page, and I called her her up and I was like, do you understand who Tudor Dixon is and what she stands for? And I just kind of went into, you know, do you understand that like on my medical record, it says that I've had five abortions. If this would have happened a few years ago, like I wouldn't have received the same care. And I think that really opened up her eyes to see that it could have affected me if it happened a few years ago. And just knowing that she wants to make sure her granddaughters have that choice for themselves. When you told her
Starting point is 00:29:00 that, like how did she respond in that moment? When you said these were on my record as abortions. Yeah. I truly don't think that she knew that that's what miscarriages are often labeled on a medical record. So you managed to convince her to vote yes on Prop 3 to preserve and protect abortion rights in the state? Yes. So Amanda convinces her mom and several other family members, partially by talking about her own personal experience, she convinces them to vote yes on Prop 3. And what about all these people you're talking to, the family, the friends, are they voting straight Democrat?
Starting point is 00:29:39 Probably most of them will vote Republican. But she fails to convince them to vote for Democrats down the ballot. And this can show the limits of how the abortion issue could work for Democrats. That it might get people like Amanda to turn out and vote for them. But for people like her mom, who's a Republican, it may not prompt them to overcome their partisan leanings and cross the aisle and vote for Democrats. Amanda's mom didn't want to talk to us on tape, but she explained over the phone that she's having a hard time bringing herself to vote for Democrats because she associates them with the defund the police movement.
Starting point is 00:30:18 And her son is a police officer. How do you react when you hear that people are going to be voting yes on Prop 3 and Republicans who could undo abortion protections? I personally don't understand how that goes together or makes sense, but I'm just hoping that Prop 3 will be strong enough to hold things together here in Michigan if it passes. Are you trying to talk people into voting Democrat in addition to voting yes on Prop 3? I feel like it's a very fine line. I feel like I've been having to be kind of careful and not push too hard. I'm just worried about damaging relationships. The current political climate has been really hard for me,
Starting point is 00:31:12 leaning Democrat when most of the people that are around me lean more Republican. So yeah, it's been kind of, I kind of feel isolated and kind of alone. I don't know. My mom's been very like, you're not going to change my vote, you know. I'm afraid if the Republicans get in control, that they will do whatever they can to restrict abortion access to people in Michigan. The reality is that the politics around this, particularly this issue, abortion, which has been so controversial for so many decades, remain pretty fraught. for so many decades remain pretty fraught. Right. There's a limit to how much abortion is going to transform the electorate in these midterm elections. So for Amanda, that transformation is pretty complete.
Starting point is 00:32:18 But for people in Amanda's family, they might be down for voting for abortion rights, but that doesn't mean they're suddenly voting for Democrats. Yeah, there's a limit to how far their views on abortion extend politically. So Lisa, given that, I wonder if there's any chance that putting Prop 3 on the ballot could actually end up backfiring against Democrats. I mean, isn't it possible that, you know, number one, having Prop 3 on the ballot gives those Republican voters who support abortion rights a way to have it both ways, voting for abortion, but also voting for Republicans. And two, it could just as easily
Starting point is 00:32:59 motivate that larger group of Republican voters, those who are against abortion, to go to the polls. larger group of Republican voters, those who are against abortion, to go to the polls. And that, of course, would help Republicans. So the split ticket thing, it's theoretically possible that it could have an impact. And Amanda's family is doing that. And Jess and I heard of other people doing that, too. It's probably not a huge group of people, given how polarized our political environment is. But we also know that Michigan is a really tight political state and that there is no way for Prop 3 to pass without picking up some measure of independent and moderate voters. There are just not enough diehard Democrats in Michigan to get it over the finish line. Now, whether those moderates and those
Starting point is 00:33:43 independents then turn around and vote Republican, it's probably not a huge number of them, but there may be some. We just don't know how many because we've never operated in this post-Roe environment, and we don't know how the politics are going to play out. We do know, though, from decades of politics that being against abortion consistently turns out Republicans. So there is a chance that Prop 3 could boost turnout for Republicans or at least keep it at the level it's been for all those decades when it comes to abortion, which is, you know, fairly high. So I think the dream here for Democrats is that the same thing happens on their side, that the number of Amandas, people who are politically activated by abortion,
Starting point is 00:34:26 who will turn out for Democrats again and again because they feel so passionate about this issue, that that number grows. And look, that just takes time. The Democrats have only just started to talk about this because there wasn't a need to talk about it before Roe fell. And look, few people really believe that the country would ever lose a federal right to an abortion. So it was a really hard case for Democrats to make. Right. It's not like a switch is suddenly flipped and someone who's a Republican becomes a Democrat, right? I mean, there are so many different aspects to people's political identity right now, and they're all kind of fused together. And, you know, for someone to leave the Republican Party
Starting point is 00:35:04 and go to the Democratic Party, it's a little bit kind of like, I don't know, immigrating to another country. It's like you have to leave the whole rest of your life behind. And it's also something Republicans who support abortion rights haven't really had to contend with ever because there was always Roe, right? I mean, they could just support abortion and vote Republican and be very confident that abortion would be protected because it was the law of the land. And now that's gone. Yeah. And Michigan is the first test of this strategy, which is can abortion referendums supercharge Democratic activism and, you know, as a result, turnout. Basically create an army of Amandas who will now vote in every midterm after midterm. And also, even beyond that, can it flip some crucial measure of Republicans,
Starting point is 00:35:53 get them to vote Democratic too, really in some smaller sense, do basically what Republicans did in the late 1970s with evangelicals. did in the late 1970s with evangelicals. And, you know, Democrats are optimistic about how it's going to go for them in Michigan, certainly more optimistic than they are in a lot of other parts in the country. And if they're successful in Michigan, you can bet that we're going to see
Starting point is 00:36:18 a whole lot of copycats all across America in two years. Lisa, thank you. Thanks for having me. We'll be right back. Here's what else you should know today. Today, we received a tremendous vote of confidence from the citizens of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's former prime minister, is set to become its next one after his right-wing bloc, led by his Likud party,
Starting point is 00:37:15 was projected to win a clear parliamentary majority in Israel's general election. It was Israel's fifth election in four years and will be the first government to have a cohesive majority in Israel's parliamentary system since 2019. It will be one of the most right-wing governments in Israeli history. An alliance of two religious ultra-nationalist parties, Jewish Power and Religious Zionism, placing once-marginal far-right groups and their extreme ideologies at the heart of Israel's political system. Today's episode was produced by Jessica Chung. It was edited by Lisa Chow and Paige Cowett. Fact Check by Susan Lee contains original music by Dan Powell and Marianne Lozano and was engineered by Chris Wood.
Starting point is 00:38:06 Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for The Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. We'll see you on Monday.

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