The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz - The Sporting Class: Netflix has come for live sports: NFL on Christmas on Netflix
Episode Date: May 17, 2024Meadowlark Media CEO John Skipper and Nothing Personal's David Samson are back with another episode with host of Pablo Torre Finds Out ... Pablo Torre! Welcome to The Sporting Class! Netflix has ...officially entered the live sports world with the NFL. The NFL on Christmas Day on Netflix. What does this mean for the rest of the broadcasting world? Plus, the bundle is back? Disney and Fox and WBD wanted to bring us just sports. Now Disney and Hulu and WBD want to bundle for content. And now Comcast is bringing its own bundle offering to the table! The bundle went away and now it’s back! Then, Who will win the NBA's broadcasting rights? ESPN and NBC and Amazon? Will Warner Brothers Discovery be able to salvage a piece of the NBA pie? Here are our final thoughts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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This is the Don LeBattor Show with the Stoogats Podcast.
David Sampson has just declared to John Skipper that they're no longer going to shake your
hands anymore
I'm not sure that we have ever
Even when we completed a deal with MetalArk
But you're-
We just hug, we just hug, we're huggers
I'm a hugger
I do find it strange that John likes telling stories
Before we start doing shows about
His cleanliness having so much-
It's my favorite part
Of-
It actually- you're correct, it was not true
Because my hands were wet when I came back So it was came back. I didn't want to call you out.
It just was a story.
Yes.
I worry that 70% of you.
These are the minds that lead us
into the biggest topics in sports business.
It's a genre that is never,
never wanted for a drama and massive evolution.
And we arrived this week on this boarding class
with John Skipper and David Sampson with Netflix.
Goliath marrying Goliath.
And I mean, the NFL and Netflix getting together.
Netflix entering the life sports business officially now.
A three year deal, John, how do you see this deal? The idea that now they're going to carry NFL games on Christmas day.
I think it's a very smart deal on the part of the NFL and Netflix.
I've been consistent in thinking that Netflix will continue to poke their way
into sports. I believe this is the first professional league or so,
Hans Schroeder, who probably did the deal.
Our paper of the deal says the first professional league,
smarter than to do it.
They've been more cautious than Amazon,
more cautious than Apple at diving in, but they're coming.
Hey, they had a big, big live roast as well.
Oh, yes they did.
So it used to be they were gonna be event driven
with the roast and with the Mike Tyson, Jake Paul fight.
Now they're beginning to say,
all right, let's try a rights deal,
but we'll only make it the Christmas special
because it's our favorite, biggest day of the year
when everyone watches Kevin Hart movies
or whatever the case may be.
But guess what?
The next step is, and you know what?
We're really cool on New Year's Day.
That's a big day for Netflix.
And then it's gonna be a random Wednesday in March.
And if this is how you get to doing full rights deals,
Netflix is a player and the leagues and the owners
are really, really happy today.
The luck is that Christmas is on a Wednesday.
That is the great news for the NFL.
Explain that.
Because there are no Wednesday games.
They're not taking away a package from anybody.
They're taking away regional games.
You could argue from CBS and Fox,
but they're not in any way violating the contract
of CBS and Fox.
They created new inventory,
which is the dream of any seller,
which is to find new inventory with no incremental cost.
And that's what a Wednesday game is.
Yeah, I think it's just the natural evolution.
Reed Hastings said long ago that he was interested in making money.
He's making money now.
He was letting his shareholders know that they were going to not dive into sports
while they were losing money because sports are expensive.
Now that they're making money, now that they're emerging as the big winner,
which they are, they understand that they will need to keep moving into sports.
It is a matter of time.
And so the games for this coming Christmas, it's a pair of them,
Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans.
Those are the two games, both pretty good, pretty good games.
Does it matter?
But that's the question. That is where my head, they wanted, they wanted good, pretty good games. Does it matter? But that's the question.
That is where my head, they wanted to do
this first Christmas, they wanna just eliminate the NBA.
Move on from that, just don't even have them as competition.
Who's they, I think I know, but.
The NFL, the NFL for me, they're going after Christmas.
This is new, it used to be they would only do
Christmas day games if Christmas happened to be on a Saturday or Sunday
or a Monday night maybe or a Thursday night.
Now, it doesn't matter what day Christmas is,
a day that used to be NBA based
is now gonna be won by the NFL.
The Netflix ratings will be higher
than any of the NBA ratings,
even though it's a streamer Netflix only.
And the NBA, in theory, will have its Christmas games
on regular networks.
I still think it'll beat it and then it'll just start to...
Netflix will continue to spend more money in this arena and so my question as I was
thinking about it is are they now out of the event business?
All these tennis matches they do and the golf matches...
Event versus games.
Event versus games.
A one-off versus a series of deals that they're going to do.
And if I were to wager,
I would say that they will get away from the one-off events,
which are harder to make work financially.
And they will go into the larger deals like this.
Yeah. You did condition it on they'll go away from the ones that don't make
money. I don't think it's either or.
I think they will continue to look for one-off events
and they prove quite successful in that
and things other than sports as well, comedy,
and they'll keep doing that.
There's no reason not to.
I mean, Netflix is now interested in share.
They're going to continue to try to grow share
and they know this will help them do that
and retain their subscribers
and grow their subscribers worldwide.
It's all seems very smart, very logical to me.
And the fact that they got worldwide rights,
it's not being discussed enough, I feel.
And that means that wherever you have,
if you're traveling and you turn on Netflix,
you know you get different options of what you can watch.
Not all movies are available, whatever country you're in.
The NFL deal, I believe is going to say that wherever you are,
if you've got the red N, then you are going to get the NFL on Christmas Day
in whatever time it is in your particular country.
And that turns out to be big for Netflix, of course, but really good for the NFL,
who spends a lot of time, energy, and money trying to expand internationally.
Yeah, were the NBA games international as well
on Christmas, they would win the ratings.
But they're not.
I know.
So, because that gets-
I'm just pushing back to you,
I also don't think it does.
The NFL, wherever it appears, affects ratings
of the other outlets at the time.
The NBA will still do fine. They have
five games on Christmas. You said correctly, they kind of own Christmas. This incurs and does provide
some incursion into that, but they'll do fine. I don't think they'll move them to the 24th or the 26th.
Well, Christmas is Christmas. No one can move Christmas. But it used to be that the leagues
respected each other. I feel a little more when I first got into sports.
We were always felt we were in competition with the NFL and
Bud Selig was always wondering what, you know, Tagliabue was doing.
But now it just feels like all-out war where Roger Goodell is, and I may have said on this show, we're nothing personal.
He is truly Yertle the Turtle.
He wants to rule everything that he sees and he doesn't care about the other sports
the way I feel they used to.
Look, it's just good competition.
I do think there was a sort of courtesy before.
Doesn't surprise me in a world that's becoming less courteous
and his rights fees go up.
They have to figure out more and more ways
to drive more money for the owners.
It's gonna happen.
I mean, I remember at ESPN, you know,
when there were people who thought our being on Thursday night
with college football was a bad idea.
We stayed off of Friday night because of high school.
But at some point, it was like, no,
we're gonna put college games on Friday night,
and then we're gonna put them on Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
So it speaks also just to the insatiable appetite
that sports fans have.
They want an opportunity to watch sports all the time.
It's fascinating, Pablo. I don't know if you saw this the other day or whatever day it is today.
There was a discussion from Bob Iger, our old friend Bob Iger, who was saying,
we're not going to put as much money into our linear programming.
We are going to really focus on streaming.
We're gonna focus on getting that content
and that production value up.
And I was thinking from a business standpoint,
what has changed and how quickly it has changed,
that we talked about on this show maybe a year ago
that Netflix was not in this business.
And not only are they in the business now,
they're owning the business now.
And we didn't imagine what could happen with NBA
and its rights fees, which we may get into today.
The world that we thought was changing quickly,
it turns out we were wrong.
It's changing even faster than that.
So the coarsening of relations between the leagues,
which was a gentleman's detente,
it sounds like, John, before.
What accounts for why that is different now?
Is it because, look at the media economy
and the icebergs that are melting
and the ones that are seemingly bobbing up to the surface?
Is that why all of this now feels more all out?
I think it's because of the price of entry.
I'm sorry to interrupt you, John.
I think that when owners had bought a team
like George Starnbender bought the Yankees
for $10 million,
you know, it's okay to be a little cordial.
When your entry price is $6 billion, and that's your basis,
then you have a need for a higher return
and for increased revenue,
because you are servicing more debt.
In the early days, the acquisition debt for teams was minimal.
Now the acquisition debt can be in the billions.
Explain, John, before I get to you, explain what that means though, servicing debt, acquisition debt can be in the billions. John, before I get to you,
explain what that means though, servicing debt,
acquisition debt in layman's terms.
When you buy a house, you borrow money to buy your house.
And if you buy a bigger house for more money,
but your down payment stays the same,
that means you're borrowing more money,
which means you're paying more money per month
to the bank who gave you the money.
When you buy a team, it's the same darn thing.
You put an amount down and then you borrow the rest from a bank, which you have to pay
back.
And if you're borrowing billions of dollars, it can change how you operate.
And we see this with companies like Warner Brothers, when the debt, like Paramount, when
the debt becomes so overwhelming, you can go bankrupt or you can adjust and cut your expenses,
but you have to do something.
I think that's accurate.
I think it's also accurate that if his rights fees go up,
they've got to find new places.
And sports is by far the most predictable
and consistent driver of audiences.
The only driver other than a few events,
Academy Awards, Tom Brady roast, that you can predict
and it gets you a concurrent large audience.
So they're just looking for more windows
and now it's harder to be a gentleman or a gentle woman
when you are trying to find more windows
and you're going, I'm not really gonna honor that anymore
that we're not gonna play college football games
on Friday night, we're gonna play them.
Right, Peacock, let's recall, we've covered this story too,
Peacock setting that record, right, 23 million viewers
for that Dolphins Chiefs game, a streaming playoff game,
the first ever exclusive to a streamer,
really it seems being the proof of concept,
is that the way you guys see it, for Netflix to say,
now it's time for us to make sure
that we gobble up some of this. Did they do it after one? Is that proof of concept? Is that the way you guys see it? For Netflix to say, now it's time for us to make sure that we gobble up some of this.
Can they do it after one?
Is that proof of concept to you?
If someone brought you one success?
Well, Thursday Night Football
is a proof of concept as well, right?
People thought you could never aggregate the NFL audience.
So I would suggest that Publix write
about the wild card game because that's a postseason.
So that would have been sacrosanct territory
that the broadcast networks would have expected
to hold.
Uh, and they're not going to, there is one other interesting fact about these though,
which is these are long-term deals.
So which, which are the NFL deal was 10 years.
Is that, but I have the recollection of that, right?
Are you talking about, I, did you mean the Netflix deal?
No, no, the Netflix deal is three years, which is interesting, right?
But I am suggesting that as Netflix begins to come in,
they're already locked out of a bunch of stuff.
If they don't get an NBA deal right now,
this might likely to-
Because John locked a bunch of them up.
So-
My locking up is gone.
No, but your strategy though was in fact
to look so deep into the future
that you had these assets for a long ass time.
It was, and I do think the other interesting thing you have
is the rights holders should always have wanted
to do short-term deals,
because the more often you get a chance to come up,
you do it.
Now the rights holders are going for longer term deals,
because I think they worried about the disruption
of their traditional partners.
I think you'll see now that they're moved to something like what the NFL did,
which is get an option to get out if they need another crack at it.
Before it would have been the buyers who would have wanted an option out.
The buyers would want to lock in.
If I was ESPN, I would want to get as many years on the NBA as possible.
That means nobody will get a crack at it. We did a nine-year deal because we didn't
want anybody to get a crack at it. We also knew that every deal that's expensive at the
beginning is really cheap at the end.
But what the leagues do, and you're seeing it with the NFL and even with these new deals,
the league still has inventory. We would sit in meetings and talk about what are we holding back?
What are we gonna, if worse comes to worse,
we'll put on MLB Network or we'll put it on NFL Network.
But we're gonna keep games back
because we need to have more to sell.
What a dream when you can play football games
on every day of the week,
because then you can spread it out.
And now there will be platforms that suffer.
And Coco, before the show mentioned,
what exactly did YouTube pay for
when they got the new red zone from DirecTV
if all of a sudden games are in national windows
every day of the week?
And so there's gonna be some change in terms of value,
but overall it'll be increased
because I assume the NFL is gonna go to seven days a week.
Yeah, before we get to fan perspectives
on what they now need to do to watch these games,
I do wanna go back to Ted Sarandos,
who's the co-CEO of Netflix.
You've been talking about the macro of this,
and Ted Sarandos said this in July, 2023, quote,
"'We really think that we can have a really strong offering
"'for sports fans on Netflix without having to be part
"'of the difficulty of the economic model of live sports licensing.
That was a second quarter earnings call in 2023 of July.
In July of 2023.
Is that now looking, yeah, what does that say to you now?
Every earnings call is different
and earnings calls are like when managers meet the media,
you're only responsible for what you say that particular day
and it can change the next day and you can keep your job. that earnings calls are like when managers meet the media, you're only responsible for what you say that particular day
and it can change the next day and you can keep your job.
And Netflix clearly has a different view,
much like when we talk about turning the NBA,
if they try to bid over two and a half billion,
then David changed his view.
So I'm okay with that being different a year out.
Yeah, that was third quarter 23, did you say?
Second quarter 23.
Second quarter, they had a third quarter,
a fourth quarter, and a first quarter,
and I'm not positive of this fact,
but I suspect their earnings went up every quarter,
and consequently they're in a different position,
and you adapt in a different position, as David says.
He was telling you their position
in the second quarter of 23, it's clearly changing.
How do you guys see Netflix as an entity
compared to Amazon,
compared to Apple when it comes to their potential
to just outright be the winner of, now let's call it,
the evolving economic model of live sports licensing?
I don't see those three, any of those either going away
or merging themselves away, so I've always thought of it
as a three-legged stool with Apple and Amazon and Netflix.
I've always been concerned and thought about
the other streaming networks and how they'll all consolidate
and where they will end up being owned.
And we've started to see some of that.
But what is interesting is that Netflix and Amazon,
what is happening differently,
they all have different risk tolerance
over what they wanna do.
I would argue that what Netflix is doing with the NFL,
there is no risk involved.
What Amazon did with the Yankees, there is greater risk.
What Amazon did with Thursday Night Football,
doing it every week, there was greater risk.
So Netflix is still, I view them as the most conservative,
but I don't view them as a candidate to have a problem.
Well, I agree with that,
but I'd look at one thing that's different as well.
Netflix is a pure play.
Netflix is an entertainment company.
Amazon and Apple are not, at their core,
entertainment companies.
And that provides, their other business provides them
with one advantage.
They have a whole lot more cash than Netflix does.
On the other hand, Netflix has to win at the core business
and Apple and Amazon don't necessarily have to win
at the core business.
They have to win at their core business.
Yes.
Amazon's core business.
Netflix started sending people CDs, DVDs, excuse me,
and you had to return one to get another.
So I think Netflix has clearly evolved
into a media content company.
Would we be shocked if Netflix continued to evolve
and maybe started having different offerings
to its subscribers?
I assume they could,
but it still feels to me like it's a pure play
and they wanna win.
They know Amazon and Apple have the amount of cash
and market value.
If they wanted to, they could outbid them for anything.
And I think you'll see by some calculations and I'll cite Lucas
Shaw in his Sunday night newsletter.
At Bloomberg.
Yep.
At Bloomberg did calculate that on hours watched Netflix has more
than half of the total hours.
So they are winning big.
I think this is a story worth our talking about sometime too.
They are winning by a huge margin right now in terms of people's entertainment time.
I think it was 75%. Well, that's why I called them Goliath at the top is because in all of
the streaming wars, when it comes to just actual tonnage of viewership, Netflix is clearly the
winner. And I want to point out that they're using that tonnage to then pay about $150 million
for those two games for this year.
And so look, what we're looking at now
now speaks to a larger concept
we've been talking about on the show forever,
which is what the consumer had been promised
when it came to how this was going to go for you
as a football fan,
because I'm looking through the list, right?
Okay, if I wanna watch NFL games,
I need to have an Amazon subscription,
I need to have a Netflix subscription,
a Peacock subscription, ESPN Plus, Sunday Ticket,
perhaps via YouTube, and then of course,
access to the broadcast, the big broadcasters.
I'm so tired of this narrative, it bores me.
I'm sorry to all the people
who have to get all these subscriptions,
but I remember when I couldn't watch a movie
because I had HBO, but not Cinemax, right?
Cinemax, but not Showtime.
And it was just life.
There is no God-given right to watch every NFL game.
And all the people complaining,
oh, woe is me, I need these many streaming channels.
Give me a small break.
And I do know, Pablo, you said they were promised.
Who promised?
By who?
They weren't promised by ESPN.
We were busy raising our hand going,
you're gonna regret breaking the bundle up.
I don't know, promised by whom?
Rich Greenfield, I ain't promised him,
that they would get,
that it would be cheaper when they got choice.
The promise of disruption,
the promise of now you pay for what you want
and here it is and suddenly it's going to cost.
I mean, David, as much as you are right in saying that,
of course it has never been,
it has never been,
I guess it's always been weird in terms of like
what you can and cannot access
based on your assumptions as a consumer.
Now it's just that much more decentralized is the point literally going to different
apps and devices.
I believe but but again, I believe that people have been trained their whole lives that there
were certain things they have access to and certain things they don't.
And we can take this all the way to who flies first class and who flies coach.
There's who gets the suite in the hotel when you're a traveling team. There's just things that are into complain about it.
Be a better player, negotiate it in your deal.
Be richer is what David is yelling at the American public.
I think that it speaks against the passion.
That's just terrible.
Can you cut that out?
I think it again speaks to how passionate people are about sports.
And to be fair to them on the NFL. Wait a minute. that out. I think it again, speaks to how passionate people are about sports.
And to be fair to them on the NFL, wait a minute, to be fair to them on the NFL,
Roger Goodell, not more, I don't think than three years ago said his intention was to continue to put all of his games on national broadcast networks, which
are available for free.
We just said things change.
They did.
I didn't say it was wrong.
I just sort of said, if you're a sports fan, you just heard three years ago that you're going to get them all for free. We just said things change. They did. I didn't say it was wrong. I just sort of said if you're a sports fan you just heard three years ago that you're going to get them all for
free. But again Roger didn't promise the American public and that will happen forever. I own a
share stock of a company that is doing well in the third quarter of 23 and all of a sudden it
does not do as well in 24. Do I get to call the CO? I could do a proxy fight. I could try to get
them removed. But let me tell you,
there's no guaranteed past performance
is not indicative of future results.
Okay, so David Everett, the litigant,
you're right that there is no lawsuit,
no class action suit on the basis of this alleged promise.
A term of art, a figure of speech that I used
for the expectations that sports fans have had forever,
that this
thing was going to be a thing that they could enjoy in ways that didn't feel exploitative.
And I now just wonder if it's going to get to a point, John, where it feels like this
is I just want to watch the games without being charged by every single tech company
in the world.
I don't think that's going to go back to that.
I don't think people are going to quit watching.
I don't think people will stop complaining.
I think that's a pretty constant factor too.
And you are seen bundling.
So what you're seeing are companies trying to say,
all right, I know that you're going to have to get Netflix,
but let me tell you, not only are you getting Christmas games,
but you get every Kevin Hart movie ever made.
You're going to get Happy Gilmore 2, 2TWO, TOO,
and you are getting all this benefit for Netflix.
Amazon, you're gonna get a game, but guess what else?
You're gonna get toilet paper,
and it's gonna get to you tomorrow,
and it's gonna be cheaper.
So I think that what we're seeing
is companies trying to explain to consumers
why it's okay to do business, which is why, John, I believe that what we're seeing is companies trying to explain to consumers why it's okay
to do business, which is why, John, I believe that Netflix is not going to be so pure going
forward and I think they're going to look for different revenue streams to get more
money out of their subscribers.
So the movement here, the evolution is actually in a direction of everything old being new
again because by the way, guess what's coming back to commercials, advertising.
So I want to just explain for everybody what it means when these tech companies are experimenting
now with live sports, with live events, which means, by the way, advertising, right?
So John, explain what's happening here in terms of the great return to advertising,
broadly speaking, I guess.
Well, I'm not positive it's a great return to advertising, broadly speaking, I guess. Well, I'm not positive it's a great return to advertising. An extraordinary amount of ad revenue is
now going to a few technology platforms. And I'm not sure I understand yet, but
assuming they have more data, which they do, than anybody else, they will actually
be able to charge more money per ad than anybody else. All this means is that more and more money is going to move over to the big
tech platforms. And I'm counting Netflix there as a tech platform.
And I think what's coming is not ad buys that are general ad buys.
They're going to be so targeted and that's the evolution that we've seen.
And if anyone has social media and you look at your feed,
there's a reason I have 17 carry-on suitcases
and 49 toiletry kits, because I buy them
and then they keep bringing me the best one.
Here's the best one.
And so that sort of targeting advertising,
I would think that the leaks-
Wait, 49 times you've decided to upgrade your toiletry kit?
Yes, what's going on?
Because of the way they hang
and the different zipper components,
and it doesn't drip, and you don't have any leakage.
This will separate me and David once again.
Cause you don't use a toiletries?
I use one of those plastic bags
and put my toothpaste in one of those plastic bags.
I can't tell if you're joking or not.
No, no, that's what I actually do.
I thought you were supposed to do that, David,
in the airport, you gotta have one of those clear bags.
I never take my bags out.
Yes, I do not.
But in any case, the point is,
thank you for again, illuminating how gross you are.
It's not gross.
It's transparency, literal transparency.
Yes, literal transparency, thank you.
I'm excited for what I have been calling
the minority report age to happen,
which is when you walk into a store,
they read your eye and say you have not bought jeans
which are size 29 in six months, walk to the left,
we've got a pair of jeans for you in your size.
And I think we are-
Assuming you didn't lose weight or game weight.
Well, they're looking at you and yes.
Yeah, leakage accounted for.
But hold on, I wanna give a quote here
from the ad chief at Netflix who says, quote,
bringing our ad tech in-house
will allow us to power the ads plan
with the same level of excellence
that's made Netflix leader in streaming technology today,
which is to say that the company is building an in-house
advertising technology platform,
giving marketers new ways to buy and measure
and monetize the American mind.
I'd like to say I saw that quote before I talked
and I had not, but that's what I was trying to say,
but much less eloquently.
That'll be great.
We see what other businesses they can run.
They run the newspaper publishing business out of business.
Yes.
The magazine business out of business.
I don't know what's next, radio maybe.
I mean-
Did you complain about typewriters being out of business?
This is just progress.
No.
Well, the only thing, we don't wanna get into here,
but you do reach a point where the
justice department at some point is going to have to decide if two or three companies
owning 75% of the ad market is a good idea.
Correct.
And I personally am not looking forward to having my eyes red when I walk into a
store and being told what to do.
But we're no longer catering to people of your demographic.
The world is not.
So it's not about-
That was always accurate.
It's always been about 18 to 34 year olds.
And the problem is we age out of that,
but there's always 18 to 34.
And so what you're saying you don't appreciate
is companies, and I think you'd agree with this,
they're okay with that.
Yeah, I read it.
Actually, I think maybe Scott Galloway said this, which is people just think they want choice.
They actually want to be told what to do.
They want to know, they want the computer to tell them
what song to listen to next, what movie to watch next.
I deliberately, if I get any toilet bag kit upgrades,
I do not buy it.
Because I'm not gonna be subject to that.
I thought you were gonna say.
I won't be the last holdout.
This can you imagine him when they gasp for recommendations
when you watch something, you're supposed to give
a thumbs up or thumbs down as a way to help the algorithm
send content your way or ask your way.
I'd never do that.
Dude, you lie?
Like who are you fooling?
That's a good idea.
Why?
No, no, I just ignore it.
He's a conscientious objector.
What I'm amazed at is every time I make a damn
telephone call,
it says, rate this call.
I mean, like, rate it based on what?
I just had an argument with somebody?
That's a bad call.
The sound quality, the what?
I hit not now.
I hit not now when I'm giving that.
Well, only because you have to.
You have to hit.
I am suddenly very concerned
that both of you are regularly being hacked. You don't ever get those?
Oh, no doubt.
Do you, do you, do you, wait,
am I the only one with you gets the alerts after a call?
No, no, I get these all the time, yeah.
And with the app and I write not now, you never,
you're full of.
He may know actually how to block that, right?
Yeah, I'm not necessarily encountering your problems
of technology or leakage at this rate.
Wait, I think that's inappropriate to discuss David's leakage.
Howdy listeners, it's Mike and you know, a lot has changed over the years.
Just look at sports.
There's instant replay, a three point line.
There were shifts and then not shifts.
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Don Lebatard. Go pee pee. Stugats. Go pee pee. This is the Don Lebatard Show with the Stugats.
Speaking of what is being leaked, the great rebundling proceeds apace and you have all
these corporations now signaling, guess what?
We're teaming up.
And so we've had, okay, let's start with the remembrance of the sports bundle.
And that was ESPN and Fox and Warner Brothers Discovery saying, hey, you want sports?
We're going to give you access to the channels
insofar as they have sports on them.
That was what we talked about before.
And now we have a Disney Plus and Hulu and Max combination,
a triumvirate.
And then now also we have Comcast
doing a Peacock Netflix Apple TV thing.
And so what do these things resemble to you guys?
Well, to be clear, and we've talked about this before,
the first bundle is nothing but a smaller cable bundle.
It's streaming, but it is linear channels.
Let's not call it a bundle, I agree with you.
Yeah, it's a sports bundle of networks.
I guess we don't agree.
Well, we didn't agree on not calling it a bundle.
We agree, but no.
So the second one is really just the Walt Disney company, which you can
already buy Disney plus Hulu bundle.
Also giving the chance to buy, get max and for another discount.
And Peacock, I meanock I mean Comcast is actually this
is actually the competition for the pure entertainment companies that want to
flee the distributors right they want to be direct to consumer and go straight
and Comcast protecting their business because you need a Comcast service of
some point in order to get that bundle. You're still staying within Comcast.
You have to be within Comcast.
You have to be a customer.
So the last bundle you described
that everyone is all excited about,
it's only available if you do business with Comcast
prior to doing this bundle.
You're not running into different people.
If you're running, people are excited about that.
Listen, we definitely travel in different circles.
My circle is hugely excited.
My day has been made,
because I'm a Comcast subscriber,
and I can now add, what can I add?
Netflix and Apple TV.
There's nothing that David's social network loves more
than an upgraded carry-on suitcase
and the quote unquote streamer-saver bundle
that Comcast has to house.
Oh my gosh, streamer-sa bundle that Comcast has to have.
Oh my gosh, streamer saver.
I'm going to go into business to help name things because
you don't like any names.
Streamer saver sounds like a lightweight RV.
I'm in the streamer saver.
What does that mean?
Are you saving streams or you say, I think it means you're saving money by streaming.
Yes.
Brian Roberts says this.
The goal is to quote, add value to consumers, end quote,
and another quote here,
take dollars out of other companies streaming businesses.
Yeah, so that's the competition between,
they are a streamer, but they're also the distributor,
and that's where they make most of their money.
So Comcast as not, we talked about pure media plays,
Comcast is not that, right?
Comcast sells you internet, everything, and sells you cable, and so what media plays. Comcast is not that, right? Comcast sells you internet. Everything.
And sells you cable.
And so what does that make Comcast
when we think about all of these castles
in this now map of sports rights?
Well, I think they're a pillar.
They have content as well.
I mean, if you asked me to name the pillars
we said before, Amazon, Apple, and Netflix,
I think there's another group of behemoths
that you would call Comcast,
you'd have to call Fox in that genre,
and you'd have to look at Spectrum in that genre.
But Fox and these companies.
I'm not sure, that's interesting, David.
The Fox is interesting, and we should talk about them.
I thought you were gonna go to,
there are the three behemoths,
and then which of the traditional companies are going to make it to me
because of the brands and the content they have.
Walt Disney is a pillar to me because Comcast, two thirds of their revenue and
cashflow come from their non-entertainment businesses.
They have the cashflow lack of debt.
That means they will survive.
They have the cashflow lack of debt.
That means they will survive.
You get to Fox, CBS, WB Warner Bros. Discovery.
I'm not sure they are pillars.
I'm not sure they can survive, including Fox, which has no streaming plan.
Fox remains a pure play linear business.
I think all they're going gonna do is once again,
they're the best people in the world at making money
in some ways.
They sold a lot of assets that were in declining value.
And I think at some point Fox will be sold
because they're not built to last
into the digital streaming age.
Well, it also could be a function of Murdoch dying
and the kids wanting to-
Are you suggesting he's dying?
So are you.
Act accordingly.
So are you.
So everybody listening is too,
but we can talk about that later.
I guess I would like to make the point
about these companies.
Paramount as an example, and caveat,
I do work for CBS part as well,
but they're struggling. Lot of debt. as an example, and caveat, I do work for CBS part as well,
but they're struggling, a lot of debt.
Skydance, that deal fell apart.
Sony, that deal could be falling apart.
The question is what will happen to Paramount?
Will all of these mergers that have happened
in that business, now they're being broken up.
And so in the streaming world,
we're only at the merger point.
After the merger point comes the breaking up point
when you find out who can make it and who can't.
So to John's point, we're only in the beginning
of seeing who wins and we can't declare Netflix
the winner yet.
But it's gonna be fascinating what will happen
and how quickly it will happen.
And I got a prediction when we do predictions later.
Well, David Zaslav says, quote,
it does feel like this is a moment
in terms of what the next year, two years will bring.
Referring to this restructuring,
the business looking a lot different in two to three years.
He says it'll be a lot better for consumers.
Another non-promise that sounds like a promise,
but I digress.
When it comes to what alliances are being forged,
is it surprising that these are the alliances, right?
Okay, Disney, Hulu and Max,
of course Disney and Hulu are part of the same thing,
but Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery,
is that surprising to you guys?
Is the fact that on the other side of things,
it's Netflix and Apple TV and Peacock getting together.
Like, I'm just curious about the tribal,
to borrow survivor language.
I was just gonna use the survivor,
I was gonna talk about alliances.
As the first person voted off his season of Survivor, David.
Thank you.
What did you learn about these alliances?
In the old days, there's something called old era, new era.
In the old days, you formed an alliance and you stuck to that alliance,
and that was your group and you rode them through thick or thin.
In the new era of Survivor, you make an alliance and then it changes every day.
You have a new group who you're loyal to, and then you make a move,
and then you get a new group.
And I think that that's what media companies are doing.
They form alliances, they announce them,
and then they're ready moving on.
Because right now, Turner's a great example.
They are fighting cats and dogs.
Can you fight cats and dogs with NBC over the NBA deal?
Well, cats and dogs reign.
Yeah, that's raining.
And they reign as cats and dogs.
Do you fight?
I can't remember the expression.
I'm not a putridist. It's raining cats and dogs. Tooth and nail is. Yeah, that's raining. And they reign as cats and dogs. Do you fight? I can't remember the expression. I'm not a futurist.
It's raining cats and dogs.
Tooth and nail is the expression, Coca.
Thank you.
They're fighting tooth and nail over MBA rights.
Your brain is such a fascinating place.
And in fact, they could end up,
can you see a world where David partners with NBC
in another issue?
You could.
I think these,
the alliances you're seeing right now, I don't, Comcast does not,
Comcast benefits if the TV bundle stays together as long as possible.
So I don't think they're going to make an alliance with their streaming service that
hurts their underlying business, which is actually more valuable than their media
business.
I think you're seeing the traditional media companies
that don't have cash flow from other things getting together just because they need to.
They get big enough to win.
Netflix doesn't have cash flow from other things.
All Netflix has agreed is that if you're a Comcast subscriber, you can buy Netflix through
Comcast and maybe save a buck or two. That's all it means.
It means that you're doing a lot of different deals.
My guess is Netflix would do that deal with these other bundles.
They just want as ubiquitous a distribution as possible.
They in fact are the new linear network in a way in that they just want to be in 100
million homes.
So what's interesting is that if that's Netflix's goal, they're gonna get there through acquiring content,
which they're starting to do with the NFL
by producing content, by being a studio of content,
and then by buying other people's content.
And it used to be they thought they could just
do other people's DVDs.
Then they started doing other people's movies,
and they said, wait a minute, we gotta do our own movies.
So then they started that,
and now they're up to the sports part
where it's, hey, we'll make up a sport, we gotta do our own movies. So then they started that. And now they're up to the sports part where it's,
hey, we'll make up a sport.
That's the golf and all that ridiculous tennis
and all this stuff.
Now they realize, all right, we can't do that.
Let's go now to the brick and mortar.
And the brick and mortar is actual rights deals.
Yeah, I think that's true.
I actually think Netflix has a chance to remain a pure play.
It's always the case that if you have subscribers
You're gonna try to figure out other revenue streams, but I think they have benefited from a real focus on
A long-term goal that some of these other companies have not had
In the way Fox benefited from not doing streaming and now could end up being sold because they're so far behind
It's so for so much money. They sold off some parts for $71 billion, right?
And they are continuing to earn a lot of cash.
They're really a family controlled business.
So, and I think they'll-
So it's paramount.
I think they will be enough money to go around,
even if they have to, for many, many generations,
even if they have to sell.
That's not the question.
You're, again, you're putting your slant on this conversation based on your thoughts on distribution of
wealth.
It's not a question of how rich the Murdochs will get.
It's a question of what is the value of a company and what keeps the value growing.
And what you heard Zaslav say is, oh, it's going to be great for consumers in the next
two to three years.
He's totally full of it.
Nothing he does with the consumer in mind,
it's all for the shareholder.
So.
Well that's actually, and I've heard learn this from you,
that's his job.
That is his job.
Not his job to worry about the consumers.
I agree, but I don't wanna be fooled.
I don't want the audience to be fooled thinking
that hey, everything's gonna be better in two to three years
just you wait, because I don't agree with that.
No, it's gonna be, if expensive is worse,
and for most people it is, it's gonna be worse.
When is expensive, I mean.
Isn't it?
Expensive is only better if the value outstrips
the increase in the expenditure.
And if you can afford it.
That's less than relevant.
This feels like a riddle that only rich guys can solve,
by the way.
When is it better to pay more for something?
It's like, well.
There are people who go to the grocery store
and decide between different brands
that are both less lesser brands,
but one may be more expensive.
And they're making the decision,
is it worth it to buy the Jolly Green Giant peas
or the whatever other kind?
So I think that everybody does this, Pablo,
but thank you for another only rich people joke. I mean, look, we're rich guys only fans. This is how we operate.
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Don Lebatard.
We love you, we've got you, we've all got each other.
Let's go right now.
Stugats.
One, two, three, Brett.
One, two, three, Brett!
This is the Don Lebatard show with the StuGards. And I want to get to what David Zaslov is saying when it comes to the changing tune
he's had around the NBA as he once again shows up at Madison Square Garden with a Knicks
cap that looks about 30 minutes old and he's sitting there grinning, and they're saying at their up-fronts,
and this was another executive at Warner Brothers Discovery,
saying that they look forward to another season of the NBA
and coming to an agreement with the league
that makes sense for all of the parties.
And meanwhile, John, I need your understanding
of what it is that they even have the power to do
when it comes to this matching right.
Because Zaslav and WBD have made noises
about how they can match, apparently. Com, Comcast's bid or, uh, Amazon's bid.
And you're the guy who happened to sign the existing deal.
So I did sign the existing deal and I do not believe it had the right to match.
We negotiated that deal at the same time that TNT did negotiate their deal.
We negotiated that deal at the same time that TNT did negotiate their deal.
And they were close to exact other than the exact money or the exact games.
So I am puzzled and don't understand how they could have a right to match.
And I really have a hard time understanding how they could have a right to match Amazon because that is not even the same package.
You get a right to, yeah, you get a right to renegotiate your own package
and exclusive negotiating window.
I never had much luck getting a matching right because that dramatically
decreases the rights holders chances to get the most money.
Um, so I don't, I'm puzzled, uh, and I do not believe we had that right.
I do not believe TNT had that right.
Um, which would mean that subsequently, somehow,
when there was this consolidation of these assets
into Warner Bros. Discovery, they got the NBA to agree
to let them have a matching right.
I don't think we need to tell people in the booth
what to clip because basically what he's now saying,
just to make sure we're getting it everywhere,
what John Skipper just said is that
what Turner has been doing for the last two months is lying.
No, I didn't say that.
I said I'm puzzled because to my knowledge,
that is a difference.
So there is a question.
I'm simply telling you based on my knowledge,
I am not accusing anyone of lying.
Do you think Turner has a matching right? Yes or no?
I'm not in a court of law. I love when we get to the deposition phase of the show.
I'm trying to make a point here, John,
and you're not letting us make it.
What John is saying is that intent.
I'm an excellent witness.
Exactly.
I heard that.
You have experience in these matters.
I am too.
No, no, no.
It's not for me to accuse anybody of mendacity,
but I'm puzzled by it.
Puzzled because you have signed a deal
that is supposed to be quite similar to the deal
that they are also working with.
And doesn't have a matching right.
And doesn't have the thing that they say that they have.
I can't be privy or read anybody's mind
as to what may have happened subsequent to those signatures.
You make me smile.
You really do.
I can barely deal with you, but you make me smile.
So the question here, David, is like,
the question that John cannot answer and will not answer
under oath or otherwise is, why are they saying this?
Because it does not seem to be true.
And what's worse is if they're saying it
and A, they don't have it or B, they can't match it,
which is where it looks like this is going
that NBC is gonna get this package.
It just makes them look worse.
That's my question, what's the strategy?
So I don't know their strategy here
and clearly it's gonna have to come out
when the announcement's made
and what you heard at the up front, it's really not outstanding come out when the announcement's made. And what you heard at the upfront,
it's really not outstanding to say this
during your upfronts.
Of course they have one more year.
That's how long the deal is.
They've got one more year in their deal.
That's not news that you would give at an upfront.
That doesn't get anyone excited about anything.
They had Barkley and Shaq not in studio last,
or whenever night it was,
because they were doing the up-fronts for Turner.
But to say what, that we have another year
and we're excited about it?
You could have delivered that.
They will do good ad business in the next year
and they're just reminding the advertisers
and the audience not to change their budgets yet.
It's a great point about what the up-fronts are.
People-
Yes, let's explain that. I've never seen up seen up front get this amount of attention as they're getting recently
with I think Jason Kelsey was doing an upfront and Tom Brady announced what the game was
that he was going to start with Browns Cowboys up fronts or when you are giving a sneak peek
to advertisers what's coming next and why you should be budgeting,
because they're all doing their budgets, for our stuff.
Yeah, they're completely unnecessary now, by the way.
And they're mostly a factor of people still wanting to get four or five days in New York City.
It's amazing. It's a boondock.
To come see a few shows and see the Nixon Rangers play,
because it started with the networks, who of course,
released a whole new season every fall.
And they would have half, a third, 40%, 60% of new programs.
So they would come in, show you clips of the new programs and say, here's where you need
to put your money down.
Introduce you to the stars who are going to be in the new programs.
And it was a world in which there were the upfronts and then the agencies would commit
their money.
They would say, oh, NBC, we're gonna commit $86 million
out of Doyle, Dane, and Birnbach to your programming.
That's why you did the upfront.
Now the decisions are made every week, every day.
I don't know if anybody is actually guaranteeing
Turner anymore that they will spend X amount of money
during the year.
They probably are a little bit.
If it came across my desk to pay for any employees
to go to upfronts, I would deny the expenditure.
It is a simple, just ask for vacation days
and take your vacation.
I don't know what business is being done.
They're pretty anachronistic.
I mean, there's not really much reason for them,
although I am a lover of New York City,
so anytime a whole bunch of people come,
I can understand the appeal.
John would approve those expense reports, yeah.
You wouldn't even look at them.
Well, look, the hard problem now is,
do you wanna be the company that doesn't do it,
so everybody's in town and they're going around to see it?
So that's what I was gonna ask,
like what is the, in terms of all of this being
a measuring contest, an ego measuring contest,
it feels like you do it because everyone else is doing it. It's the worst excuse we,
hi, I'm David Sampson.
All right, I'm good.
One year we did not send anyone
to the major league winter meetings and we got in trouble.
Because it wasn't worth the money,
we weren't doing any deals, like who cares?
I'm not approving anybody to go to these meetings.
And you were the only one?
Yes. Not as perfect.
And then we got in trouble. And unsurprising.
We had to send people so we made our GM drive.
We wouldn't fly them.
And it was we were making a point to the league
which is enough of this.
And that's how I view the up front.
If you are paying for people to go,
I understand your love of New York and I love it too.
But the world's changing.
There was a reason for up fronts.
I think there were a couple of companies that tried to stop doing them at some
point. And at one point, people are also trying to cut back the expenses.
The ABCs were always done at Lincoln center. Jimmy Kimmel hosted.
It's a big deal. It's hundreds of thousands, perhaps seven figures in some cases, too,
but it still is an average.
Of expenditure.
Of expenditure.
Is what you mean.
Well the shiniest toys are brought out
for everybody to marvel at, the new stars and all of it.
Barclay didn't fly commercial to New York
to do the up-fronts for Turner.
By the way, we were in Bristol, Connecticut,
so our folks did drive.
In fact, we usually brought a bus.
And Kenny Mayne led our upfronts.
And he was already on the payroll, so we were good.
So no incremental money.
We spent less.
Did you put them in hotels or did you fuss them back
right after?
No, no, no, we had a Broadway stage
and we hired a company to put on the show.
Right.
I remember being at one of these one year
and Kenny Main was, I believe, like flying through the air.
He was suspended from like the ceiling of a Broadway theater.
Like the Spider-Man set?
Yes.
You're lucky he didn't fall.
It's a very inside reference to a horrible,
horrible injury.
It's not that inside.
Do people not know that Spider-Man, the Broadway show,
people kept falling from their,
from the roof and dying and they canceled the show.
I don't know if they died.
I did not make space in my brain to remember that.
This is a weird thing for me to have to Google very quickly
at the end of a show, but did the Spider-Man musical
performer, Spider-Man, die?
I believe something very bad happened
to a Spider-Man performer in the middle of a show
and that show closed and I went to that show.
Near death accident.
Oh, it's near.
Thank God.
God.
Your Spidey sense was slightly wrong.
It was slightly off.
And yet it does tingle all of the time.
Anything at the end here that you guys are thinking about on the way out, because we
have like two minutes, I believe.
I'm thinking about the NFL if we have a minute.
I am just absolutely shocked and in awe of their strength
and of the fact that they are clearly the top league
in every way now.
And they're not satisfied with being number one.
And this Netflix deal is just another example.
It's just the beginning.
They don't want to own the professional sports landscape.
They want to own the whole damn world.
And the rest of the leagues,
they better stop trying to play catch up
because it's not going to work.
And to me, the fight is now for who can be second in terms of other leagues.
Cause the NFL, I believe they've lapped the field and there's no turning back.
Hmm.
A dire, a dire proclamation.
Yeah.
You're talking of course about, uh, the United States of America, because there
is another sport, which arguably is the biggest sport in the world, and that's what everybody else calls football.
And-
Where teams can't make money.
Where teams can't make money?
They're losing money hand over fist.
We can do a whole show on that if you want.
No, that's an interesting, that would be an interesting show.
There are teams that make money.
Let's put a pin in that, that debate.
And you did say everybody's fighting for second.
If you're fighting on the international stage, there is a fight, right?
And the NBA is in that fight.
They are in the fight to be the second most important sport in the world.
Not in the United States, United States, the American tackle football is king.
And you would argue that in the United States, you were talking professional.
You said the word professional, but if you were just talking sports, you make the argument
college football is the second largest sport.
I'm happy to make the argument.
I understand why you say that.
And you can also make the argument that it's professional now.
It is professional.
It's totally changed.
So I count college football as pro football.
Okay.
It's football. It's football, it's football.
It's American football, North American football.
And so what you're saying is that
if you were running a baseball team today,
you would have made peace with the fact that
you're flying coach, relatively speaking.
And that is a sad but true truth,
and that's, you asked me what I was thinking about this week,
and when the Netflix deal was announced,
remember that's in conjunction with MLB's Roku announcement
There were two announced two different up fronts two very different up fronts
Yeah, if you asked me what I was thinking about this week. It mostly wasn't sports
So it would be relevant to this show and probably about time to close it up I want to know what you were thinking about I
can't remember.
That's it, Paweł.
I gotta go.
Mostly I've been thinking about the Knicks.
Oh, there it is.
And how damn great Jalen Brunson is to watch.
Unbelievable.
The smallest guy on the court last night,
the most dominant guy on the court.
I don't know how he gets those shots up.
I think he's the most popular athlete
since Derek Jeter in New York City.
Oh, he's gonna own the city?
Yes.
Oh, he's great.
He's gonna own the city,
though the Knicks may not have enough players
to beat the Celtics, much as I love them.
He'll own the city, but what about the debt service?
He'll have a lot to repay, I'll tell you that.
David and John, please shake hands so we can end this show.
Oh my God, you guys are ridiculous.
I'm a Petri dish sitting over here.
Howdy listeners, it's Mike and you know,
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Just look at sports.
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That's right, it's so good.
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