The Ryen Russillo Podcast - MLB Playoffs With Adnan Virk! Plus, CNBC’s Josh Brown Talks His New Book and Gives Out Financial Life Advice.

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

Russillo starts the show by sharing his experience with the MLB playoffs (0:45). Next, he’s joined by Adnan Virk to break down the rest of the MLB playoffs and preview the start of the NHL (6:46). Then, Josh Brown comes on to talk about his new book, ‘You Weren’t Supposed to See That’ (39:10). Finally, it’s another edition of the Alliance (66:25), before Russillo closes the show with a special financial edition of Life Advice (79:53). Check us out on YouTube for exclusive clips, livestreams, and more at https://www.youtube.com/@RyenRussilloPodcast. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Ryen Russillo Guests: Adnan Virk and Josh Brown Producers: Steve Ceruti, Kyle Crichton, and Mike Wargon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm not a Brewers fan, but I try to feel the same feelings they have today as the Mets knock them out of the playoffs. We're going to talk about the remaining eight teams of Adnan Burke. We'll run through all of them. Little hockey preview. And we've got a new book from our guy, Josh Brown, who you see on CNBC. It was a fun manager. It's just about investing and it's a really good book. It's fun.

So we're going to talk about that book and then he's going to stick around doing financial life advice. And speaking of your finances, we've got some picks for you, the Alliance and couch money research. It's the Ryan Rosilla podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action and FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all.

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Ryan RYE to download America's number one sports book. The ringer is committed to responsible gambling. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and older and President-Select states gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

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Baseball, I am back. I am all the way back. I'm in. It's one of the best products in all of sports. When the MLB playoffs start, I am excited. On Wednesday, I watched the majority of those four games. And last night we had one game. And when I look at the playoffs I'm like this is

one of the best things that we could have in sports but if you're a Brewers fan this morning what you went through last night doesn't feel like the best anything today you blew a two-nothing lead in the top of the night the Pete Alonso home run Mets tacked on another one a little bit later double play your season is over. At home. You put in six months of games almost every single day. Seven and a half months if you're into pitchers and catchers reporting. And even longer if you're into the hot stove league, which was my favorite league in all of sports for many years.

Brewers fans, you won 93 games this year. You had the third best run differential in the entire sport. You were fifth in team ERA. You had a 20-year-old future star in Jackson Churio hit two home runs in game two, lived up to the hype all season long. And last night, a closer that had given up three runs all season gave up four runs in two-thirds of an inning after the Mets had gone 19 straight plate appearances without a hit. Six months over in three days because an awesome reliever couldn't get it done. For Brewers fans, it may seem like

not a great investment of time. You're gonna remember the Pete Alonzo homerun for the rest of your life. Real sickos will remember the lead off walk to Lindor. The same way I remember to boo Tim Schieta for like 13 years at Fenway Park after the Phantom tag in the playoffs against the Yankees in 1999. It's why years later, I was still pissed about the MLB format

in the new expanded wild card in 1995, where you had the Red Sox playing Cleveland as the one two, despite the fact Cleveland won a hundred games. The Red Sox won the second most games of the American league and two 79 win teams, Seattle and New York played each other on the other side of the bracket in the American league. Like this is stupid. For years I was on construction sites being like, you know, it's really dumb. By the way, the Cleveland team was so much better than everybody else in the American league. Like, this is stupid. For years I was on construction sites. Be like, you know, it's really done by the Cleveland team was so much better

than everybody else in the American league. And yes, 79 wins 144 game season that year, but it didn't make any sense as it was leading up to like, what's the format? So the two best teams are going to play each other because a division winner can't play a wild card team within their own division. And then there's some annual seating turnover. Why, why can't Cleveland just play the Yankees and the Red Sox play Seattle? No, that doesn't make any sense. Look, it was 1995

and I still remember all. Look, it's why when Bob Stanley, the steamer, who for you younger listeners caused great emotional distress to many a Red Sox fan in 1986. But when Bob Stanley was on a minor league staff, when I was working in the minors 20 years ago, I was back in the visitors clubhouse and he asked me to move his car and I didn't. Yes, I know that's weird, but baseball death is just different than other sports. And in Milwaukee right now, you don't even know what to do with yourself. The NBA, you kind of see it happening as a shot goes in.

It is sudden, right? The NFL, it's usually the culmination of a long drive or maybe it's the culmination of a field goal after moving the chains enough to get into position. You can kind of see it happen. Hockey playoff death is like being shot and not knowing if you've been shot. Some cases you know you've been shot,

I've never been shot, I hope to never be shot, but I think you read enough about it, like sometimes like, what was that? You're like, you've been shot. And then you go back and look at the Stanley Cup final replay and you're like, oh, that's how that went in. And it's so sudden. You don't even know.

There's like a moment with hockey endings where you don't even know it's over yet. Pete Alonso's home runs a little different. It's like watching a pet about to be hit by a car. You hope the angles off, you kind of like duck down and you look and yeah, I get it as pet owners you're like this is the analogy you came up yeah I did because it's supposed to

be something that sucks that's terrible then you're never gonna forget but you're just like is it is the angle is it too low ah this sucks I can't tell you that it's gonna go away because it won't. It's never going to go away, especially for a Brewers franchise that's one of the five teams in baseball that's never won a World Series. The last time they were in a World Series

was 40 plus years ago and they were in the American League. So it's not gonna go away because it's not like after a breakup where all your relatives are telling you, hey, time heals all wounds because you're going to get back together next year. And every year after that, there's no break. You're never going to see the Brewers with another guy because you are always going to be the other guy.

So I know today is sad, but we'll see in Phoenix. on bets like spreads, over-unders, method of first touchdown, and so much more. Just visit fandual.com slash Ryan, R-Y-E-N to download America's number one sportsbook and kick off every college football Saturday with a boost. Must be 21 and older in present in select states or 18 plus in present in D.C. Opt-in required, bonus issued is non-withdrawable, profit boost tokens, restrictions apply, including any token expiration.

See terms at sportsbook.fandual.com. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further

with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Let's do it. Adnan Verkis here, MLB Network Playoff Time, hockey season right around the corner.

Will we have enough time? I don't think so. What's up? Right, it's great to see you as always. Listen, let me start with this. In a decade plus of wonderful friendship with Steve Cerrutti, he's never called me. He's never called me when him and Matty were getting married.

Never called me after I was named the MVP of the wedding, much to the chagrin of Will Kane. He's never called me when Marla was coming. But yes, he called me. And I said, okay, there's never called me when Marla was coming. But yesterday he called me and I said, okay, there's two things to you. The one, someone's died who's close to us. So I don't want to answer the phone or more than likely to pocket dial slash butt dial.

Neither. Shruti immediately texts, does not leave a voice, he goes, hey, I know we wanted to get you on at some point, October Blaze ball, can we get you on tomorrow? So first things first, who canceled? I'm thrilled to be here, but I wanna know what happened. Cause sure he's on the ball here. There's no way he would have called me the day before

unless somebody canceled. Is everybody okay? Jeff Passon, been to it. I like that it was Passon. Secondly, the last time I was here, I told you my story about the Emmys. Let me quickly tell you that and we'll talk all the baseball and hockey that you want.

That's where I actually, I was gonna start, so I'm glad. Perfect, so as I said to you before, I'm like, he did Van Pelt change his number? You're like, nope. I go, okay, just not responding to my text, that's fine. I had sent him a text, congrats on the Emmy nomination, look forward to seeing you. I see him there, he's a few rows down from me,

and I said, well, if we win, I can tap him on the shoulder. I don't believe they ever been to the Emmys, Ryan. I wouldn't necessarily recommend it. We're 43 of 44 categories. Outstanding studio show daily is MLB Tonight. As we're filing in, I'm like, oh my God, it's Joe Buck. I am a massive Joe.

Everybody knows this. I'm a massive Joe Buck guy. So I went over, I'm like, I'm just going to say hello. Michelle Beisner, his wife and talented reporter, kind of gives a look at recognition. That's a good sign. She knows who I am. Joe, big warm handshake, hey man, you do a fantastic job. I'm like, oh, the night's made Joe Buck.

I love Joe Buck. Then I see I an eagle, I an eagle, I an eagle says, man, you really know your movies. I'm like, okay, so this guy actually knows who I am. This is also a good sign. As I walk in, it gets even better just for you and me. Dave Roberts right there. I'm like, Dave Roberts.

And for those confused right now, not the Dodgers manager, but the guy who ran ESPN audio when Ryan and I were there. And now he's a very prominent executive. He introduced me to his wife, Tiarra, she's very nice. I tell Tiarra, I go, listen, this guy was the boss on radio, and he was so funny because he would take me to Bricos in West Harper. He'd take me out for lunch or dinner, and he would just annihilate all of our coworkers. And he started laughing. He's agreeing. He knows this is true. It was hysterical. He would bash everybody. I'm sure he's killing me. But I said, I appreciate the meals. I appreciate the feedback.

He said, it's great to see you, blah, blah, blah. We get to the category at Sitting Studio Show Daily, and it's the kid, Merrill, who's announcing it. So the nominees are... He didn't seem super locked in in some of the clips I saw of him emceeing. Yes. So the nominees are out to do it. And then you're supposed to say, as you know,

and the Emmy goes to, however, he botches it. It wasn't quite a moonlight situation, but he goes, and the MLB goes to, well, we're the only one nominated for Major League Baseball. We're up against four ESPN shows, Sports Center, NBA Countdown, NFL Live, PTI. And the MLB goes to, I don't know, yeah, yeah,

rivals from McQueen, he's making fun of me, he looks at me and he goes, yeah, yeah, MLB tonight, like, let's go. I watch Mark Kaepernick high five and then I slam Van Pelt on the way to the podium. I give him a big little friendly, yeah, of course he has left because Joe Buc's category was too previous. As soon as he lost, he bolted, I'm like, all right, well, I would have given Joe Buc a high five, that's fine. We get up there, obviously Mark Kaepernick, my boss, gives a great speech, very gracious.

Rinaldi's beaming at me front row. I'm just staring at Rinaldi's choppers the entire time. It was amazing. It was an epic night. We win. We go backstage. We're taking pictures. We're floating on air. And it was awesome. So I don't know if I'll ever go again. That was my moonlight moment.

But I'm thrilled to announce that MLB Tonight did indeed win. I'm standing at the studio show daily. Triumphant night for us all. And then by the way, in the bar afterwards, I see Jason Kelsey and our producer Ian's a massive Eagles guy. He goes, look, it's Jason Kelsey, but we're gonna go talk to Jason Kelsey. So nice conversation with Jason Kelsey.

It was awesome. Van Pelt did change his number. Correct. So what happened is the next morning, Van Pelt texts me and goes, hey, there was a lot of joy up there in that stage. So happy for you, man. I'm like, oh, Scottie, it means the world coming from you.

We exchanged comp entry texts. And then after he threw out the first pitch for the Orioles, game one, I texted him yesterday and he goes, thanks. And then immediately later, there's a new cell exactly just sitting because, hey guys, new number for SVP. Thanks for all the kind words about the Orioles. Very cool that he got to throw out the first pitch. And the best part of it was he did the one in homage to the great Jim Palmer and I said if it

really was an homage to Jim Palmer he would have thrown the first pitch in his underwear because you remember those Jim Palmer jockey ads when he was the height of his fame that truly would have been the best homage possible but still very cool. Van Pelt threw the first pitch. I wish his offense had shown up unfortunately not the case. No not a, they hit 167 in two games against the Royals, maybe it's their pitching. But we have to talk moving forward about A topics, A segments and C to D segments.

Like this would have been a great way to wrap it up. Because now- That's the thing, because after you start the game, are we gonna have enough time, I still keep, he's gonna squeeze me at the end, I'll lead with it, and whatever else he wants, it's fine. Thanks, thanks for allowing us that. But I don't know if we'll have enough time? I still can't, he's gonna squeeze me at the end. I'll lead with it and whatever else he wants, it's fine. Thanks. Thanks for allowing us that.

But I don't know if we'll have any time for hockey. Okay, here's the deal. Last night, incredible win for the Mets. Yeah. You know, it just seems so cruel for six months and then three days, it's all over. I don't wanna do a fixed baseball topics with you because this is the moment in time

we should be celebrating baseball. This is a season where we had zero teams win 100 games the first time since 2014. That can be maybe a little flukey or it can feel like anybody has a chance. But do the Mets have a real chance? I don't think so, but I'd rather focus on the micro rather than the macro.

I want to focus on last night's win. Pete Alonso I love, and he was struggling mightily going into that at bat. I mean, he had had five singles over the last two weeks. We had Joel Sherman on MLB Tonight. I did the pregame show going into the game. And Joel's saying, he's like, are we going to go the entire year without him having a major hit? Because he hasn't had a big hit since April 6th. That's how long it's been. Five for 35, where his last 11 games of the regular season, all hit singles, had not homered in 49 plate appearances going

in. So if the moment was ever now now is the time for polar Pete was ready to play perhaps his final game is a mess. And I was a Carlos paying and Jake P. B. of course paying the former home run champion was in the World

Series previous to the rage Jake P. B.'s deciding award winner World Series champion and they both said to me last night on MLB network Devin Williams loves to throw the change up and the Mets were the best team in baseball against the change up. So you Mets were the best team in baseball

against the changeup. So you go to that at bat, Lindor first off, terrific at bat, waiting for his pitch, eventually reaches, Piantos is out, but then Brandon Nimmo reaches at the base, and then they get to Alonso. Three-one count, and those balls missed badly. So it wasn't like Devin Williams was around there.

He had to come in with the changeup, he does so, fat part of the plate, and Pete crushes it. And I was so happy for him You know he hit into a double play earlier almost you know tripped over his own back He missed a pop-up in the eighth which could have been catastrophic Because at that point it was already a two-run game if Edwin Diaz had given up more runs Could you imagine how Alonso would have felt the look at his face? He dropped that pop-up. I said man just want to give this guy a hug

You can tell you wanted to find some hole to crawl into so for for him to hit that three run shot, that moment was absolutely epic. I was thrilled for Pete. Years ago, I met him at the BBWA, Baseball Writers Association Awards, dinner. And me and my oldest son, Youssef, who you know, this was 2019, Youssef was 10. And when I met Pete, I said, this is my son, he wants to say hello.

And I said, listen, he's struggling with Velo. In Connecticut, he was an All-Star, quite frankly, New Jersey is struggling. He's struggling with Velo, what can he do? And Pete Alonzo, the other guy's gonna be, goes, lift weights. And I wanted to be like, he's 10. quite frankly, New Jersey is struggling. He's struggling with Villa. What can he do? And Pete Alonzo, the other guy's gonna be, goes, lift weights. And I want to be like, he's 10.

But that's Pete Alonzo's advice. Hit the squat rack. That will help you get better. I'm like, okay, he's gonna give up baseball in a few years, but thanks, Pete. Which makes me think, by the way, as an aside, the best I've ever heard about youth and a comment like that was you to Dave Sorosi,

Obermann's guy, longtime coordinating producer when you were filling in for KO. Sorosi says to you, I'm showing my kids some schools for touring around. And you said, oh, what college is he thinking of? And his response was, he's six. Regardless, Alonso is a great dude. It was a massive home run.

And props to Carlos Mendoza, who brought in Edwin Diaz in the seventh. He was not messing around, brought him in a key spot. David Peterson comes in on the ninth, double play Lindor, Mets win. Do I think they have what it takes to go all the way? No I don't, but I think this is an amazing story and one hell of a week in Mets history. Look at Monday, Lindor carried them in that game against the Braves as they got into the playoffs. Who knows how much farther they can go. I think it's Phillies in six, but I give props to the Amazons.

I just used to always in that look, this has been different now for years. So it's not new, but like the Severino story, like he was special. What in 17 he was, he was good in 18, but the Yankees thought they had, you know, the ACE of a staff for 10 years, and then, you know, he's in the other part of town now and he's, he's not peak Yankee Severino, but I don't know if Manaya is enough. Contano was terrific last night and he's been awesome for a month here.

I'm kind of with you though. When I look at the landscape of the national league, I like the Padres. Phillies are probably the best team, but I feel like I'm going with a timely, like what their GM Prowler does and just all in over and over and over again, the way he's just willing to do anything to try to find a way. I love the team. I love their lineup and look, King, their starter, who they got in the Soto trade.

Um, you know, look, the Yankees are giving up a really nice prospect starting pitcher for arguably one of the three or four best hitters in all of baseball. It's a pretty easy transaction to pull off. But when I start looking around, I probably should pick the Phillies because this is the most complete team maybe of the last three

years, but I just, I want to see the Padres get out of the national league. So the majority of people at MWB network, when we need to make our predictions, I think almost all of us have Padres get out of the National League. So the majority of people at MWB Network, we need to make our predictions. I think almost all of us have Padres, Dodgers, and LDS. And the majority of us have the Padres winning, which you go hang on a second. The Dodgers have the most wins in the regular season. They've got Otani, Betts, and Freeman. They spent over a billion dollars in the offseason between Otani, Yelamoda, and traded for glass now. Well, unfortunately, it's hurt. You're telling the

Padres of the team to beat and all of us agree with you. And the reason why is you mentioned the pitching it's certainly superior Kings two seamers unbelievable the way that he's able to use that pitch. I thought he had the best pitching performance anyone so far the playoffs even clean

Terrix scubal might be the best pitcher going for the Tigers. But the much revenge we does hurt I don't know the severity of that hopefully is gonna be okay I believe this might be bone chips or spurs of like that's no ligament damage that's

a good news hopefully is okay but they'll have Dylan cease they's might be bone chips or spurs of light. That's no ligament damage. That's a good news. Hopefully he's okay. But they'll have Dylan Seist they'll have you Darvish available. I love their bullpen because as far as the closer Adam Tanner Scott lefty lefty him

versus the times and be a great matchup and offensively Nando's unbelievable come playoff time. He's got one of the highest OPS is of any Padre 25 play appearances. He can't get him out right now. It's a home run that game one

game two shows off his speed how electric he is Machado the big hit Jackson Merrill the rookie doesn't play like a rookie in a big hit. So I'm with you I think the Padres are the better team of the Dodgers I think they win

that series in five. Ellie certainly has more star power it wouldn't surprise me if Otani batsman Freeman rake. But I have a lot of questions about L. A. after that pitching staff Flaherty has been a godsend for them he's in the start game one

he was a critical trade deadline acquisition by Andrew Friedman. And company but I I got questions Yam L.A. after that pitching staff. Flaherty has been a godsend for them. He's going to start game one. He was a critical trade deadline acquisition by Andrew Friedman and company. But I got questions. Yamamoto pitched well when he came back but he was out for months. I don't know how much more he can give them. JP Morosi gave us this stat. In the last 15 Dodgers games there has not been one out recorded by the starter in the sixth inning. So they are a true five and dive team. And their bullpen is okay but I think San Diego has the edge in the bullpen. Bueller two time Tommy John guy has struggled

mightily this season Landon Nacks a rookie obviously Kershaw is not available Gavin Stone is not available so I'm with you I think I think L.A.'s got more star power on their top line up is incredible. But I like the depth of San Diego

more. I still have the Phillies coming out of the NL. I think they are the best team top to bottom if I look at their starters relievers and their lineup. But I'm with you. I wouldn't be shocked if San Diego makes the World Series and wins their first one ever. Yeah, the Dodgers pitching staff, we were worried about it in spring training. They add the extra pieces, but Yamamoto has not been the same guy. Glasnow being her is the least surprising thing

ever. And then the other five guys. So like you're looking at the depth going, how could they have nine starters potentially like this? They, this has to be the most insurance a team has ever had. They didn't care how much they were spending. And yet here we are in October and it's still not working despite all of the different arm options that we knew. The reality was like a few of these are damaged goods, but it just, it's, and by the way, the other weird thing like you look

at them last year and you go over it's the pitching problem again, they scored six runs against Arizona in that series. So and that's that look that's the randomness of the bats just shutting down for any team in the playoffs, but that was more the case the last couple playoff exits for the Dodgers than it was about all the pitching stuff. All right, so sell me on Philly. Do you do you agree this is the best version of this team in the last three years. Yeah, Bryce Harper has never won a World Series. He obviously had a very good season. He wasn't great by Bryce's standards. He's a two time MVP. Obviously he's had better seasons, but I think that clearly the moment is now and he's always been a guy that steps up. Schwab had an unbelievable season as far as leadoff hitters are

concerned. The event at home runs an RBI hit is kind of laughable because you don't expect that of a leadoff hitter. hitters very atypical in that respect. I think Trey Turner was much better the second season but really it's their pitching staff that I love. I mean Zach Wheeler to me if it's not for Chris

Sale. Wheeler's going to win the Cy Young he's come close before he should have won against Corbin Burns years ago but Burns got him. As far as winning the award but Aaron Nola is great postseason pitcher like his regular season

numbers are like no high threes low fours ERA in the postseason he's two and a half he's a different threes low fours year a in the postseason is two and a half is a different player Rangers wires wasn't as good down the stretch I think Christopher Sanchez though is great so to me there's your

three strong starters and bullpen wise Jeff Hopkins been good they've improved Jose Alvarado has been really good for them so I think they've improved from years past and again I just look at the length of their line of like top to

bottom they don't really have any weaknesses and they've got some good role players as well the likes of Brandon Marsh, you know, people Cody Clemson, some pinch hit home runs for them. Like to me, Philadelphia is a great team. I will say, Ryan, they were great in terms of being at home and you thought for a team like that, Hey, citizens bank park, that'll be a really big advantage. However, last season they're up three, two went home and they gagged against Arizona. They lost

that game six and seven. So I hope they learned from that from a year ago, but I do think just they have the most depth, like I said, top to bottom. All right. So are you picking San Diego to come out of the national league? No, I'm going to pick the Phillies. I'm calling Phillies over the Mets and six. I got the, I'm sorry, in five. And I got the podgers over the Dodgers and five.

I know I'm supposed to go with the better teams here, but I think this. Terrick school ball story is incredible. Uh, Detroit's story is incredible. I mean, they trade Jack Flaherty and it's like, all right, you know, the team's not going to be any good. And now we're looking at Scubal is potentially, I mean, is he the best pitcher in baseball because you really have to go back to last year. He only pitched 80 innings, but last year is when we saw the signs of what he could be. And now, and I was watching,

I was watching guys on InnoVision Network and somebody was breaking it down and going through the whole thing. I almost feel like you have to be dominant for like a couple of years to have the belt of best in the game. But as far as like whatever the last 80 innings of last year and then the entire season of this year,

the guy's a completely different dude and he's unhittable. Yeah, he's been incredible. And I'm with you. I like to have some more durability. Like I don't want to step one season and say all of a sudden this guy's the best. Like I'd rather give consideration to somebody who's been doing it for longer like Zach Wheeler for me. If I said, okay, the last year's he's been the best pitcher at Corbin Burns perhaps at Garrett Cole.

But I'm with you. If I just looked at this season, Tarek Scoble was the best starting pitcher in baseball, throws every pitch for strikes, has an edge to him. He's nasty out there. And the Tigers formula is interesting because essentially it's, when Scoob will pitch it's win day and the rest of the day is let's just figure it out with our relievers. They've roared into contention

because going back to July 25th, their relievers have a 2.87 ERA. That was the day after Jack Flaherty's final start with the Tigers, they thought they were done. They're training Flaherty, we're punching in the season. Instead, their bullpunch has been unbelievable. And that's the way they've done it. It's Scoob were done. They're training Flaherty, we're punching in the season instead. Their bullpen's been unbelievable. And that's the way they've

done it. It's scruples a win day, and then the other day we'll just throw a bunch of arms at you. You know, they had seven different guys combined in that game two in a true

bullpen game. And this only the 2018 Rays, who popularized the whole concept of the opener, have had more relief appearances of at least four outs than this year's Tigers team.

So in that in that card series, no Tigers pitcher faced the same Astro twice. Literally one inning, one and a third, one and two thirds. That's it, next man up. And that's what A.J. Hinch is gonna do. I personally don't think it's sustainable. I think you can do that over a brief period of time, which they have done.

For six weeks, you could throw a bunch of different options. You could have seven different guys start and finish a game. But if one of those guys in the chain link fence falters that all of a sudden the whole strategy comes unglued and the Guardians by the way are going to give them a taste of medicine because they've got

the best ball put in baseball two point five seven era that's a full run better than twenty five major league baseball teams they got four pitchers who threw sixty five or more innings with an era below two that's tied with a nineteen

seventeen White Sox the most ever Kate Smith hunter Gaddis Tim Heron Emmanuel Clausi so with an ERA below two. That's tied with the 1917 White Sox for the most ever. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herron, Emmanuel Classe. So Detroit's been a wonderful story. I'm with you. Scoobble's an absolute stud, but I think Detroit's gonna get a taste of their own medicine when it comes to great bullpens,

and I've got Cleveland winning. And Taylor Bybee, by the way, is the rotation rock of this team. He had 31 starts, 173 innings. I'm not saying he's Scoobble, but I think he's gonna be good for them in game one and ultimately the Guardians 50 home wins, most of the American League this year, I'm picking him.

But you're right, Detroit's been a great story, no doubt. Yeah, I mean Cleveland is another one when I start looking at the offenses, because I mean you can look at Detroit's 300 OBP for the year. I think Riley Green led him in home runs with 18. And you're going, okay, you're gonna need, like that's what I like about San Diego.

I think they can do a bunch of different things offensively. Finally, my guy Jerix and Profar all the years, all the faith, you know, finally was repaid this year on top of everything else. Like, I just think San Diego can be active and aggressive and find ways to score runs. And then they can clear the bases with Tatis or Machado. It's just like they have a couple of different ways they can get you. So when I start looking at the American league lineups, you can tear them all apart besides New York and look, I've not liked the AL Central for a long time

because I always thought it was so bad. It propped up the records. And then if you look historically year to year, how the AL Central teams did once we got to the playoffs, like, oh, hey, they're gone again. So now in theory, you have three that are still alive, but I worry about Detroit's offense and then the rest of the rotation out of their number one. I can say the same thing about Cleveland's rotation

because whatever the plan was at the beginning of the year, it's almost like Dodgers light, but that bullpen, which is normally something I look for with postseason success, I mean, like I have that many guys that are that good at the back end that can miss bats. Like that's crazy. Um, so maybe I should go with them. But then when you look at where they are and runs, they're 14th, that like starting rotation was 23rd. And then you have a Kansas city team that with, you know, Lugo and, and, and Reagan's it's like, okay, I feel a little bit better about the depth of the stop, the top of the rotation, but I think they were below 500 in their season that

didn't involve the Chicago White Sox. So you have all these AL Central teams again, where it's like, Hey, look at the depth of the division, look how good, I just don't know. I mean, look, it's the randomness of baseball, but when we're talking lineups in the scare factor, there's just not much to compare with what we've had from Judge and Soto with the Yankees. Yeah, I agree with you on the skepticism about the AL Central because you look at their numbers

against the White Sox, that's where they made, hey, the worst team in baseball history. And look at each of those three teams you mentioned. I think the Royals went 12 and 1 against the White Sox. If you remove Chicago from the equation, right, it's a completely different team. So I'm with you. I don't think it smirches what they've done I give them credit as you said it's a randomness of baseball the Royals went from a hundred and six losses a season ago to seventy six losses that's a thirty win improvement that's

gigantic I get the props absolutely but are these to the Yankees of course are not could they win the series of course they could as you said it is baseball and the starting pitching is the strength of their team there

was second starters here by only the Mariners there was second starter innings you mentioned Reagan's and Lugo Michael walk Walker is going to start game three. Brady Singers had a much better season. Their bullpen's decent. But offensively, I'm with you. Bobby Witt's numbers in September, he hit 417. He's going to be the runner-up for MVP to Aaron Judge. The rest of the Royals line up batted a combined 198. So Pasquantino was back, the pass watch. He's a good hitter. He's certainly banged up. They thought he wouldn't be back for six weeks,

he's back after four, he's still got literally like, stuff in his thumb, whatever metal fragments are in there, keep them together. Last week, I'm reading about him going, and then he's just out there. Yeah. And by the way, like, beating the Orioles, the Orioles having nothing to offer

at this stage of the season was maybe one of the most predictable things of anything we saw in the wildcard round. Like when you were going through all of the things that were not working out for them towards the end, and I know that sounds like dismissive of Kansas City a little bit, not like the Royals or some powerhouse. I just, I don't know, going into that I'm like, I don't even know what to expect from the Orioles at this stage. No, I'm with you earlier in the year

I was hoping Orioles fill each rematch the 83 world series and two great ball parks You can't find a better baseball thing even right Camden Yards is unbelievable. There's nothing better than the wire series I'm sorry Nothing. Yeah, it's the Orioles fell apart. Their offense was dreadful I loved ruch from the final two months the season was a disaster only gunner Henderson was really getting and Santander by the way 44 home runs he's gonna get paid somewhere. He's leaving and Corbin burns their ace. He's gonna get Garrett coal money He's gonna get 300 million dollars in the Mets. He's gone So this thought that the Orioles will be a dynasty for years to come like back-to-back playoff appearances

They completely folded come playoff time. They're gonna lose their ace and won their best power here So there's gonna be a year transition for them as far as what remains to be seen at Holladay. Obviously did not have a good rookie season. To your point of the Royals, again, Bobby Wittsgrave, Pascu Antinous there, Sal Perez, you've got three decent hitters there, but the Yankees should win. I mean, if you're a Yankee fan, God, you'll be appalled that they don't make the World Series.

No Astros who have been their nemesis and no Orioles who had a better head-to-head record against them in the regular season. I'm not saying it's preordained, but you cannot find an easier path to the Yankees than Royals, Guardians, Tigers. and no Orioles who had a better head-to-head record against them in the regular season. I'm not saying it's preordained, but you cannot find an easier path to the Yankees than Royals, Guardians, Tigers. Yeah, that's kinda how I feel.

By the way, when you guys, can I offer up a nickname for highlights? Please. Santander. We call them bank fees because they always sneak up on you. That's good. I thought you just knew a plan words like Santander the Salamander, but I like that better bank

fees because they sneak up on you. Okay. We can use it. Yeah. Whatever. No, if anybody throws at him and he gets into a fight and you really would call him bank fees because he's always charging, charging them out. All right. So if it happens, okay, I want to use that on Jesse Winker because last time he we call him bank fees because he's always charging. Charging the mouth. I like that pretty good. All right, so if it happens. Okay, I wanna use that on Jesse Winker

because last time he was so fired up when he slammed his helmet, broke his helmet. It was one of the most ridiculous celebrations I've seen in a while. I mean, will he, Dom is chirping. I gotta watch that one again because I gotta tell you, I didn't love it, the first couple.

So I may need to do a rewatch of like, what was going on there? But you know what, look, people give baseball a hard time. Let's talk about the passion. You know what I mean? So look, I'm with you on the Yankees thing. Like to put this Judge Soto season into perspective,

I'm gonna read you something that I saw from baseball reference. Because when I saw it, I was like, wow, this is a really big deal. If you look at baseball references, batting runs above average metric, the five highest single season totals for teammates are four Lou Gehrig Babe Ruth seasons and then this year of Judge and Soto. So the fact that, by the way, like, hey, Ruth Gehrig underrated, I don't know that we need to do that 100 years later,

but that they had the top four, the two guys on the same team for four seasons and no one else was even cracking that until what these two guys did. Look, I get the Yankees. We can go over the rotation questions. You could talk about the lack of depth in the lineup if you wanted to.

Maybe the most important thing, the Yankees fans, like, is my team just dumber than everybody else? Like, why do we make so many mistakes when it comes to base running? But I, I don't know how you look again, but you get back to the randomness, the baseball thing. I'm, I mean, Klein, the hope Cleveland finds a way with that bullpen and just kind of piecing it together in a in a better way than Than Detroit does but the Yankees should be getting out of the American League No question and to your point love the callback to overrated properly rated underrated excellent segment of the Rosilla show But I think that in this case Yeah, Kerrig and Ruth probably underrated a little bit cuz those guys had some monster seasons when you look at Soto and Judges

You say no one else has done this since Marison Mansell and Ruth and underrated a little bit because those guys had some monster seasons. When you look at Soto and Judge, you just say, no one else has done this since Marison Mantle and Ruth and Garrick. I mean, if you're a baseball nerd, you love the history of the game. And that's what they've done. Now for Judge, I think it's fascinating, Ryan, because he's got some pressure here in his previous postseason, 2022, after that record setting 62 home runs. He had a buck 39, 184 on base, 306 slug in nine nine games in fifteen strikeouts furthermore if you look at his postseason career this is no longer just a small sample size there's over seventy

plate appearances he has struck out a third of the time that's a high strikeout percentage particularly much of the Yankees team he hasn't fared well against the Astros I'm curious how Aaron just does I'm a huge fan of his I hope he has a

monster postseason but I will say in the past he's he's had some holes he's he's hit some home runs. His slug is decent, but his average is on base much lower than it is in the regular season. As for Seldo, it's his third postseason, 29 career playoff games, 349 on base,

495 slug, seven homers, 20 on RBI, 29 games. He's obviously brought it as he did in 2019. And I think Garrett Cole's gonna be great. 6-0, 1.71 one year a seven career ALDS starts he was super big and said Orioles in the A's and his last two starts one run allowed on fifteen and two thirds at the

point five seven ERA so I give the edge to Garrett Cole the Yankees in game one against Waka and as you said their offensive depth is much stronger it's not just judge and Soto but it's a lot of judges so like are they the heartbeat

of course they are but Austin Wells in a good season as a cleanup, he's gonna be top three for rookie of the year. Stanton's been a great post-season player. Glaver-Torres has been much better out of the leadoff spot. Volpe is good defensively. Like they've got enough talent around Judge and Soto that they should win this thing.

How many players are better than Bobby Witt Jr. in the American League? I think just Aaron Judge, honestly Ryan, that's it. Because Bobby Witt can do it all as a true five to a player You know, I remember that contract with his signed 11 years 288 million dollars And again, there's three extra years that you could tack on to make a total value of 14 years 377 But he does it all and you know 30 home runs 49 stolen bases a season ago How much better could he be he proved it this season?

I mean he literally carried that offense as I said earlier his September numbers versus the rest of the team, even in this playoff series and the winning hit in game one, that didn't feel single in game two, 4.14 seconds. He busted down the line. I'll take Bobby with, you know, his war was second among all players. Even if he'll get a guy like Juan Soto Ryan, I'll take Bobby with because he's a better defender than Soto playing a premium position of short staff rather than right field. And he's a better base runner than Soto. Is Soto a better pure inner?

Absolutely, a little bit more selective, obviously he gets on base, but Witt has been unbelievable for the Royals, and the sky's the limit. I mean, to be this good in his third season, I can't imagine much better he'll get. Okay, final thoughts here. I'm not prepped for hockey yet.

Just to be totally transparent. Sure. I'm not ready to go. Give us the three storylines in under five minutes that we need to know. Well, I suppose nominally you're a Boston Bruins fan, although I've never heard you mention the B's or support them, but New England guys, sure, we'll give it to you.

Hey, went to the playoffs last year against the Panthers, and I'll tell you from my scouting, I was right there, right behind the Panthers bench, actually not a great seat. Shout out to their equipment guy, one of the toughest workers I've ever seen at any sporting event in my entire life, but I saw the depth. I saw the

speed. I saw the versatility of that Panthers, all of their offensive line changes. I'd be like, these guys are fucking on it. Like that guy's good. Sammy Reinhardt. I'm like, I want to hang out with that guy. I'd get a condo with him in Fort Lauderdale. I'd call on Sam Reinhardt%. I do watch him because, yeah. Sight on scene, I'd go, wait, Sam wants to do something with me? I'm in, I don't care. I'll take the, I'll park in the carport

and you can have the garage, okay? So, yeah, I was invested. I was invested in it. And look, that Stanley Cup final, I found myself having to tape it so that I would, like it happens to me during the playoffs where I'm watching the NBA playoffs for my job and then I'll put the NHL playoffs up on another screen. I'm like, man, you're kind of watching that a little bit more than you need to be right now. So I was really into the playoffs last year.

But it sounds like Charles Barkley, who as you know, even though he covers the NBA, he's a massive hockey fan. We have a lot of supporters. Working for Turner, and he said Barkley would walk in the green room and say, guys, let's put the Leafs game on. He wants to watch playoff hockey, he loves it. He was on the desk with Steve Levy, who's really, you know, I'm a big fan of, our friend. So honestly, I think it was a great season last year,

my three story lines to go back to the Bruins. The fact that Jeremy Swainman's not signed, I'm curious how that transpires. Him and Linus Olmert were a great goalie tandem together. They trade Olmert. Now I think Swainman is the guy, but they haven't signed him yet. So I'm curious how that will, you know, basically take care of business before opening night. McDavid and the Oilers, they finally break through. As you mentioned, they pushed the seven games last year. He was unbelievable. He had a historic one. He and Dreissel together. He's got great support with Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard.

Will Stewart Skinner be a good enough goalaltender? That remains to be seen. And can Florida repeat? And they finally win the Stanley Cup, which was an amazing moment for Roy Bellamy and for Bill Lindsay and so many others. But can they do it again? Obviously, it's going to be a

challenge for them. I think Vancouver's a really good team. I think that if that's your Demco's healthy, watch out for the Canucks. And I do think the Rangers are fearsome.

When Igor Sisturkin is your goaltender and the amount of depth and talent they have up front from our Timmy Panera to Alexey Lafreniere in a very good season. I think the Rangers can be poised for a big year and of course you know I love my flyers. Matthew Mitchkoff I think is going to win the Calder. They got him over they signed him you know they drafted him a year ago and Danny Breyer the flyers GM said well it's gonna take a few years.

No after one year whatever they had to do they figured it out with the KHL the continental hockey league. Mitchkoff with the flyers they pushed last year for a playoff spot with a great coach and John Tortorella. Hopefully Philly gets in. What about Connor Gicke for Tampa? I haven't looked too much into Connor Gicke, but I think he's a good player. I think with Tampa, it's interesting, Ryan, they lost Stamco. He signed with the Predators, four year, $32 million contract, but they also signed Jake Gensel. So I know some think, well, Tampa,

they'd fall in optimal, but no. When you can replace Stam signed Jake Gensel. So I know some think, well, Tampa, they'd fall off. Well, but no. When you can replace Damkos with Gensel, you still have Victor Eben, you still have Andrei Vasilevsky. I think the Lightning are a playoff team and could do some damage. Great stuff. We only have another hour of our taping window, so you want to promote what else you have for us? Well, unfortunately, RIP to Cinephile.

I want to thank all those who listened. 333 episodes. My dear friend, Dan Lebutard, called me at mid-March after the Oscar show and goes, unfortunately, RIP to Cinephile. I want to thank all those who listened. 333 episodes. My dear friend Dan Leventard called me in mid-March after the Oscar show and goes, listen, buddy, it's nothing against you. It's nothing against the podcast. But I can't renew your deal May 1st.

I said, no problem, Dan. I thank you for the last three years. It's been an absolute blast. And shout out to Saruti, who first gave me the idea of Maple Leafs and ranking my movies in Maple Leafs. But a great idea by Bimal, who's the Metal Arts CEO. He said, you know what? If you want to keep the thing going,

we can't pay you, but we'll give you a producer where you can still distribute it for us. This is very generous of you. So my agent went to work trying to find a new home and I had a blast. Got to work with a new producer, Harry Krinsky, who's unbelievable. We had a lot of fun together.

I ended up just reaching into my own Rolodex and getting people on a huge fandom. So Joe Buck came on Cinephile, Ian Eagle came on Cinephile, Keith Overman came on Cinephile, and my last guest was Bob Costas. So it was great to have a Mount Rushmore guest that came on with me. And again, I wanna thank everyone

who listened to Cinephile, 333 episodes. It was five months of doing it for free. My agent wasn't able to find a new home. I said, after six months, the universe is telling you, they don't wanna hear you bloviate anymore about movies. Take a hint, that's enough, pull the plug. I got enough things to busy in my life. I got four kids, I got three jobs.

So it was a lot of fun. I wanna thank everyone for supporting Cinephile. And most enough, pull the plug. I got enough things to busy in my life. I got four kids, I got three jobs. So it was a lot of fun. I wanna thank everyone for supporting Cinephile. And most importantly, potential new gig. I thought I was done with podcasts, eight years of Cinephile. I did the GM Shop with Michael Lombardi for three years, my NFL podcast. But an old friend of ours, I can't say too much yet, sadly, but a person you know well,

Serena knows well, reached out to me for a potential new podcast. It's nothing to do with movies, but I could be back in the podcasting space for a potential new podcast. It's nothing to do with movies, but I could be back in the podcasting space within a matter of weeks. So stay tuned, hopefully more good news to come. John Seibel.

It's not John Seibel, good guess though. And thanks for your appearance, by the way, on Cinephile. Remember you came on, you talked Manchester by the Sea, and you talked Fargo, one of our all time favorites. Still love those movies. Yeah, Manchester by the Sea. Good stuff, good stuff. Always good to see you my friend

and enjoy the playoffs and maybe a little World Series update, all right? Whatever you need, Rod. I'm happy to be here every three months or less, whatever you need. Good to see you. Keep on crushing it. Thanks buddy.

Excited to have him back. Josh Brown, who is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's an author. You see him on CNBC all the time. That's what I learned about him. I was like, I kind of like this guy. He's just good on TV. He's got something to say. His blog blew up and turned into a career and he's got a new book out that is out now. You weren't supposed to see that. What's up, man? Hey, Ryan. How you doing, man? Okay. So I really enjoyed this book for a bunch of different reasons. And maybe it helps that I've known you for years from afar on just television. I feel like you're very straightforward in a world that it's kind of hard to find that. And the premise and the format of this book plays really

well because we're kind of jumping around and revisiting different points of the financial timeline. So when you went into kind of mapping this out, like this is just not a very straightforward book, which I really enjoy. Yeah, it's a little like pulp fiction. You'll jump around scenes, you'll jump around eras, but there is a through line, which is all of the people working in finance, all of the people that you see in the financial media, all of the opinion havers, all of the movers and shakers, in the background, they're all just human beings.

They're all being driven by different incentives, most of which are not visible to the naked eye. And what I try to do is just humanize the experience of being a professional investor and tell you some behind the scenes things that I've seen happen and why they're relevant and how they will help you make better decisions. Once you understand that, you know, this is no different than any other facet of life. The purpose of time shifting was so that we don't do this linear thing where it's like, and then it was Wednesday and this happened and then it was Thursday. I wanted to make these points individually and they required me to

revisit different moments. What I really think is important too, is that if you look at just the last four plus years, we have all sorts of historic movement in markets and how different they are in such a short amount of time. And I think it's really hard when you're up close to like that day to understand the perspective of what that means. But if you go to the market right before COVID

and then wondering how it was gonna be, I know how I felt as an investor and then people just guessing, that's what I really despise, whether it was gonna be. I know how I felt as an investor, and then people just guessing. That's what I really despise, whether it was financial markets or just people deciding they were medical experts all of a sudden, just guessing on what all this stuff is. What do you think have been some of the most important

lessons, whether it's understanding corrections, understanding opportunities, and on top of that, how the capital markets have changed so much in such a short amount of time. We are in an age where every day something unprecedented happens. It's not always like this because I was around... I got Series 7 licensed in 1997. I lived in the normal times and now in Mad Max times where there was an unemployment report in April of 2020 that was so completely off the charts that the New York Times had

to use the entire vertical stretch of the front page just to capture the bar. We went from 4% unemployment to 22% in one month. This has never happened before. It probably will never happen again. I can't imagine how it would ever happen again. That is just the precursor to everything that went on. We had 9% inflation in the summer of 2022. We had the fastest bear market in history, down 20% in six days in March of 2020, and then the fastest bull market recovery ever a month later. Everything is like biggest, fastest, largest. And while this is happening, we've got companies that are publicly traded that are now worth

two and three trillion dollars. These are companies that are so dominant and so powerful globally. There's not even a government that can like literally do anything about the reach and the influence that they have. And so to live in as an unprecedented a moment as we are, and you're an investor,

the job is to calculate probable outcomes and try to give your end investors a framework for where this is all going. If you're not leading with humility, you're kidding yourself and it's going to wear really thin with the public. You've got to start from the standpoint of none of this has happened before. I can't possibly tell you specifically what a plus B is, you know, is going to be C. Um, but here is what I think.

And here's why I think it, and we're going to put together a portfolio that's durable enough so that if my opinion is wrong, we're not going to take a knockout punch as a result. I liked how you got into the PPP loans. Cause I still don't understand it. You know, I'd heard stories secondhand where, you know, I think maybe the best way is to try to help the audience and even me too, because I'm just a very casual person when it comes to this stuff, but you go, okay, so we're at, basically it's everybody's money is free.

So businesses and you get into this kind of with Metta where there's all these companies going, well, the money's free. So let's just keep trying more and more ridiculous things that don't necessarily even turn a profit. And then when you look at the amount of money that was just flooded in to try to help people through a time in need, then you start looking at some of the PPP numbers and then like I said, you'll hear these secondhand stories, you go, they didn't have to pay any of it back. And then you map all the numbers out there, like how much was it actually had to be paid

back, but then you can kind the numbers out there. Like how much was it actually had to be paid back, but then you can kind of move all these pieces around. So then you just like, I'll just sit there and think like, when is that bill coming due? And then it's like, well, maybe the bill coming due was the rise in inflation, which is explainable of considering like, okay, now everybody still has money when it felt like nobody was gonna have money.

So, okay, so, you know, I'm like, okay, I follow that. I can understand that. And so now that's why we have interest rates. And depending on where you are now, you may think the economy is more screwed up because you were hoping to buy a home and you're still mad about these rates that may never come back. I guess there were just a bunch of markers that told me it was going to get bad again, and it just hasn't gotten bad again. I felt like reading more made me worse at trying to figure it out. We all paid the bill. The cumulative rise of prices over the last four years

is on the order of 30%. And for some categories, it's like 100%. So like- So that's the bill. It's not the people- Yeah, we paid it. It's just, it's the flush of money in everybody's hands. I mean, do you pay fucking auto insurance?

You need me to tell you that we paid a bit, right? Grocery, medical, price of college, apartment rent, we all paid it. And we happily paid it because everyone got a raise. Actually, the lower on the income scale you were, the more likely it was that you got a huge raise. So it was almost like a corrective thing. It's not all good. I don't mean to paint this picture that, oh, let's do that again. But I want you to think about this. In the book, it took me weeks to do that

chapter because I had to go to every government agency that was issued some sort of a relief from the treasury. And then I had to add up all the money that came in the form of monetary policy stimulus from the Fed. And then I looked around the world and basically, US alone is 21 trillion worth of stimulus. And that has a multiplier effect. When you put 21 trillion into the economy in the form of no interest rate loans,

forgivable loans, aid packages for hotels, restaurants, Broadway workers, employers. When you do that, that multiplier effect, that ripple outward, it's just endless amounts of spending. And here's the, here's a way to think about it. We gave 11 million PPP loans to business owners in this country, and only 10 million of them kept it. Only a million of them paid it back, roughly. That's the number. So think about that.

Now, these people were, in many cases, not all cases, of course, if you ran a Broadway theater, it wasn't so much fun for you. A lot of these businesses were operating just fine during the pandemic, and they had demand that was off the charts in many cases, but they were able to keep the loan. As long as they were legitimate businesses, if you were pretending you had a business, those are the people that went to jail. But if you legitimately had a company and you kept the money, nobody really asked you any questions. But if you legitimately had a company and you kept the money, nobody really asked you any questions. And I think that you combine that with all the stuff we did for workers, and you understand why things were able to be held together. Here's the best analogy for you. In 2008, the government did

this massive rescue of all the banks. And what they did was they bought the assets off their balance sheets from them. So in other words, think about it, you have a watch, the government says, all right, we'll buy your watch. Here's $200. Give us the watch. This time, they said, keep the watch and here's $200. And also, here's $500. And six months later, actually, here's $1,000. And they didn't just do that for one group of people, like a farmer subsidy. They literally did it for anyone that was breathing, got money. So that's the genesis of what you've seen go on in the last four years. That's why your neighbor has two boats, one for the weekends, one for the week.

That's where we are today. Yeah. And I'm glad it's a great analogy because it feels like the three stages like map out perfectly what you explained in the book. But when I say like Bill coming due, it really depends kind of like on what your self-interest is at times. There's a bunch of times where I've talked with other people about it and you go, well, how can this happen? And it's not necessarily reflected in the stock market. It is. You think, so why is the stock market on fire?

If, if all of this stuff has happened, so glad you asked. Right. Companies, because publicly traded companies are so good at raising prices. It's almost obscene how talented they are. Chipotle, Netflix, United Health, none of these companies had any problem whatsoever raising prices year after year.

What are you going to do about it? Anyone cancel Netflix like in real life? No. We know definitively their churn rate is as low as ever. People just continue to pay. It was $9, then it was 13, then it was 17, then it was 20, and we pay and we pay. Go look at the share price of Spotify. Go look at these companies are doing better than ever. And that's just entertainment. If we start talking about Marriott and Airbnb and Uber, everybody is really good at passing on those higher costs in the economy.

And so it kind of like held together. Look, it's not pleasant that you're paying X dollars more at the grocery store. Nobody is suggesting that's a good thing. But what people don't want to hear, they say, oh, the inflation is terrible. You're the inflation. Look at the wage gains that you have. Look at like for the majority of people, they all got giant raises. And they had to because there weren't enough people to work these jobs. So nobody wants to hear that they're the reason for the inflation. But we are our own inflation. We are the reason. People demanded more to come back to work, and that more resulted in higher priced airline tickets. These two things are not divorced from each other. So

that's one. And then the last piece of the puzzle here is we just got a report from the Federal Reserve two weeks ago. Guys, this is not my opinion. This is the data. US household net worth just hit a new record higher than before the pandemic. It's $160 trillion. And when I say net worth, that means netting out mortgages and credit card debt. Net net worth, that's the wealth of the country minus debt is 160 trillion. And 15 years ago, it was 60 trillion. So we've added a hundred trillion dollars in collective wealth. And this is not corporations. It's not insurance companies. I'm telling you that this is U S households. So that's why it's kind of all held together because people might be mad at who the

president is or their grocery bill, but in the end, like collectively, we're doing pretty well. Yeah. People, one, people aren't going to love that answer. No, I know that. That's why. Two, it's very easy to just look at your grocery bill. And like you said, I mean, some of the homeowners insurance stuff that's happening around the country in specific states, I mean, out here in California, you're lucky to get a policy on some of this stuff now. Like it's just, it's hard to be here at a certain level

to even find somebody to write the policy. Right, people are gonna say, oh, they're gonna yell at you, Josh Brown's so out of touch. Do me a favor, look at your grocery bill, but then right after, pop open your 401k statement. Can you do that for me? Right, but you're not wrong. No one's doing it. No one's processing it that way of going, okay, well everything costs more, but if I'm doing, because you're just going to look at

your rent. You're going to look at your rent. You're going to look at all the things that you listed and you're just going to say, well, the inflation doesn't make me feel like I'm doing better. I know. And you know what? I'm just, I'm just, obviously you, you understand human nature really well after reading the book. So it's not like I'm telling you. You're right. And by the way, this is why, this is why Biden, it was polling as low as he was with an unemployment rate that was as low as three and a half percent during calendar 2023. No president in history has ever had a stock market that has compounded at 15% a year,

unemployment sub 4% and had to fight for their life to get reelected. It's never happened before. So that's when we talk about unprecedented. People are doing better than they've done in the past but social media tells them that they aren't and They get pissed off by inflation and rightfully so I do too and that that's such a weird Combination of things that we have going on right now. So that's why so much of this is uncharted territory We've just we've never experienced it before

we've just, we've never experienced it before. Cause I hate the, the rando and I'll, I'll suggest that it's even people in your industry at times, but I don't, I don't know that it's on TV as much. Maybe we'll get to that with some of the fun managers, cause you make some good points at that when they decide to show up on TV, what that can mean.

But when it's somebody's calling, calling for Armageddon and it's like, well, yeah, eventually you're going to be right. Like, cool. You're going to be right at some it's like, well, yeah, eventually you're going to be right. Like, cool. You're going to be right at some point, but you just keep calling it over and over again. And it's funny because even the jobs report, when that came out a couple months ago with

a massive correction of where created jobs was off by what was it like 800,000. And then I thought, okay, I'm getting up, I'm checking the markets and they're like, nothing happened. So I just, I feel like we have all of these events that have happened that everybody kind of feels a little bit. And then you're right. You look at your 401k, you look at your retirement stuff and you're like, Oh, okay. I guess everything's fine. It just, it feels cool. So let me address that quickly. We don't have to spend a lot of time in this,

but that revision that you're referring to, people went on Twitter, which is like the repository for all this stuff, and they said, here they go again, the Democrats are going to steal the election. Last year, they tried to say that unemployment was this, but it's really that. There are constant revisions to economic data. This is not new. It's a large one. But again, I think the economy is much larger than ever, so it should be the largest revision

ever. You have to remember there's a denominator. There was a 300,000 jobs revision for 2019 during the year 2020. We had to correct the record for 2019, and that's when Trump was president. This is not like a partisan thing, is a really important point. Although it was a large revision, I think the reason why there's a revision is important to just get into for a second. You've got the establishment survey, which is basically they call people and ask them, are you employed or not? It seems ridiculous, but that's how we

collect data in this country. And then each state- It sounds like old radio ratings. Right, so but when you- What did you listen to? What did you listen to? But when you get unemployment, you file with your state. So each state is keeping data, and that's not a survey,

that's the actual data. So we don't get the state data as quickly as we get the survey result. So when you see the establishment survey come out, that's just people who answer landline phones. And then later they reconcile it with what each of the 50 states reports, which is actual. And then they say, this was off by 20,000, you know, filers of unemployment. So that's why there is a discrepancy. It's not anyone trying to trick anyone else.

It's literally the mechanics of collecting the information. Yeah, I guess I just have such a lack of trust on either side of it. I'm in on it. Right, so I just, I was like, because I read through it. I read, I was sitting there going, you know, how I want to understand this better. I want to understand this better. And then when you started seeing

certain jobs being named new jobs were created and you were like, okay, but that doesn't make any sense. But then again, you dig into it a little bit deeper and you kind of end up in this maze without an exit. All right, let me, let me ask you this. I won't tell you how they collect the, I won't tell you how the government says what rents are. Uh, they call people who own a home. Well, you are, so let's do it. And they, and they ask, I, I wish I was making this up. If you're, your listeners can Google this, uh, after they finished listening, uh, they call people up and say,

how much could you rent and a spare room your house for? That's the data. Now, I'm telling you, they've been doing this for 50 years. That's how they tell you what it's called owner's equivalent rent, or OER. That's the stat the Federal Reserve looks at to figure out what inflation number to assign to apartment for rental, like shelter costs. And then it's 2024, so we actually have real data, which comes from apartmentlist.com or

one of the private companies, and they have the actual rents. So like, this is another example of the collection method. It looks fake, it sounds fake, it sort of is fake. And then we can corroborate it with actual data from corporations and you get the real number. But that's why all these discrepancies exist and they feed, they fuel conspiracy theories. You're right. So you talked about Ackman at the very beginning of the pandemic and he was really, really convinced that everything kind of had to be shut down.

Like basically just a month of everything just stopping. And it was a big deal at the time. And it was probably the right strategy for him to get his message out there because the White House is going to listen to a Bill Ackman. And you point out that now he's going to be doing TV for the first time. And you go through all the different cynical movements of what it could be, and you end up kind of at this conclusion that you believed him because of his investment moves.

And I think everybody's conditioned to think, okay, well, why would this guy be doing this? What lesson, as somebody who has studied the markets, worked, like you're a financial advisor, but on top of that, you're also a performer, essentially, and you understand the television side of things. Like, what alarms go off for you depending on who and what kind of message they're deciding to share

at the time they're doing? So you're talking about someone named William Ackman, Bill Ackman, who is a hedge fund manager and has been a very successful hedge fund manager, but a very polarizing hedge fund manager. He's had huge ups and downs in his career. He's had huge swings in whether or not people like him or hate him, but he's made a lot of money for himself.

During the height of the pandemic, like late March, he went on CNBC and he said, hell is coming. And he's highly influential. So a lot of people watch that and just say, I got to get out of the market. And so I think he didn't mean it. Hell is coming, therefore, sell stocks. He was trying to get the attention of the authorities because he had this really strong opinion that what should happen is like we should completely wholesale shut down society and like literally close everything and just wait two weeks for the germs to die out and then reopen. But people took that as a sell signal because he's not a he's not Anthony Fauci.

He's a hedge fund manager. So it turned out that he actually was buying stocks while he said that. And people assumed, Oh, he must be shorting the market and trying to get everyone to be afraid. He did that already. He had put on a couple of million dollars worth of hedges that turned into a couple of billion dollars in profit using options, and he was not shorting the market while he said hell was coming. He was already in the process of bottom fishing and buying some of his favorite stocks, which include some companies that got really beaten up by the pandemic. So not only was he not manipulating

the markets or doing anything nefarious, but I think the lesson there is if you're literally taking investment advice from a hedge fund manager on TV, like you might have brain damage. What gives you the idea that the hedge fund manager knows anything about you or has any vested interest in how your IRA does? Like, are you insane? Of course he's not giving you advice or telling you what to do. He's saying what he's doing and what he's thinking. So we run into this a lot. We talk to people. They're like, well, aren't you worried that so-and-so just said such-and-such?

Oh, is that your financial advisor? Well, no. Okay. So it's like people need to understand that others are allowed to have opinions without you construing it as like, oh, this guy's telling me what I should do. Your career in the beginning, and I understood this a little bit, like I will talk about athletes and teams differently just because I'm older, right? But I also know I have way more access than I ever did before. Right. But I also know I have way more access than I ever did before.

Um, and I would never say that if I like somebody or a GM or whatever, like, you know, if I think somebody screws up, they screw up and I still would be critical of it, but you have, I mean, that's just sports. You have a platform, but you're also managing your own employees. You're in charge of a lot of money. Yeah. And you have to kind of balance that. You have to be, it's, it's very obvious that you have to be more responsible. You have to be more delicate.

Although I would say in the beginning, you didn't worry about any of those things. How do you, because to me, it's like, I'm just talking about the outcome of games. You're talking about the viability of somebody's financial security. How do you? Because to me, it's like I'm just talking about the outcome of games. You're talking about the viability of somebody's financial security. How do you handle that? It's such a great point that you bring up. I have a whole chapter just like, hey, when I was 33 years old and was like a knock around guy doing retail brokerage, I could throw bombs every day. The consequences were zero.

So I could go on the blog and say, hey, this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Such and such person is a war criminal. I could say whatever I want. And then what ends up happening is you build a following and then the following translates into people really trust you and they feel like you're a following and then the following translates into, you know, people really trust you and they feel like you're a straight shooter. So they want to do business with you. And so now all of a sudden, I'm well right now I'm 47 years old and I'm hopelessly, I'm hopelessly conflicted because I'm in the real world. I'm in business. I'm doing TV. I'm under contract

with NBC Universal. I do live events. We had 4,000 people in Huntington Beach two weeks ago. My sponsors include Morningstar, Vanguard, StageTree, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan. I have friends all over the industry that work at every firm. So I don't throw bombs anymore. Number one, I'm a little bit more mature, I've grown up. But number two, I have to look out for my clients. And that's the number one thing now. So I'm very upfront about it. And I don't try to be the person that I was 15 years ago. It's like, look, this is my perspective now.

Some of the rough edges have been smoothed away. I still tell it like I see it. I'm not gonna bullshit somebody and say, this is my perspective now. Some of the rough edges have been smoothed away. I still tell it like I see it. I'm not gonna bullshit somebody and say this is good if it's bad. But I'm also not gonna go after someone personally because I disagree with their opinion about how to invest. I could just have a disagreement and it's respectful. And it's like, I don't think that this guy,

I don't think that what this guy's saying is, is correct, but God bless. So that's where I've arrived at. I think it's the right place to arrive at. And my favorite meme is Keanu Reeves, where he says, he's old and amazing. It's 50s. But he said like, I reached the age where I don't argue with anyone anymore. Somebody says one plus one equals three.

I say, great, have fun. So I'm not quite piano level, you know, in terms of like, yeah, do whatever you want, but like, I'm, I'm heading in that direction. I, I don't get angry about people who disagree with me. I'm doing what I do and it's fine. Now you've hit on something I've been thinking more about too, as I've gotten older, there's, it's the ultimate power move to not

care. No, you can't ride on the, on the, on the, not like it, right. Go. Okay. Cool, man. What can you Matt, somebody's wrong on the internet, right? Seriously. I, I have a wife, I have kids, I have 65 employees, I have 4,000 clients. I have bills to pay, somebody saying interest rates are going to go up when they go down. Like it just, I can't, I can't get angry about it. It's really hard to manufacture the rage necessary to take to the

internet and have a flame war. I just, I got to focus on the people that are relying on me. And that's the bottom line. I'm telling you right now, you're going to enjoy the book. It's fun. It's not a textbook. It's you weren't supposed to see that Josh Brown,, you're going to enjoy the book. It's fun. It's not a textbook. It's you weren't supposed to see that Josh Brown, and he is going to stick around later in the show and do some financial life advice for us on a Friday.

The Alliance is even stronger. That's great to see everybody. We saw each other in person. We got a little FaceTime in there. That's great to see everybody. We saw each other in person. We got a little FaceTime in there. Guys saw Kyle in person in some of the ringer pictures and there is a lot of feedback that is positive.

Oh really? People love seeing that you're bigger than me. They love it. And then you throw Chris Long to the other side of me, they're like, this fucking guy works out. So anytime you can take a hit at the main character, say, people are gonna just line up for that. So that's a lot of fun.

Yeah, two things too. There was an angle that people, I don't know if you saw this, you probably did an angle of you in the jersey that people were screenshotting and that was making the rounds I saw, which again- Those aren't meant to be untucked

without like a sweatshirt under it, you know? Yeah, it's not fair. I know what I looked like with my shirt off. Well. And that's what matters. I did too because you went back after you were open and I saw you with your shirt off as you were putting the jersey on

or taking the jersey off, so that was fun. I didn't look on purpose. What'd you think? I was, I don't know, it was what I expected. I was just trying to be respectful, but I don't know, so I just wondered what you thought. Thought it was, yeah, it was good, it was good. The other thing is, you guys are all tall,

so I'm sitting there, and now I have dude's question whether or not I'm 5'10 or not after I just talked about the license thing. I'm not lying about it, I'm 5'10. After that picture, you have to put 5'9 down after that. Nah, come on. Well, I didn't change it. I gotta put 5'11 maybe,. So I mean, look, it's, it sucks. Sit next to huge guys. Like one night I was with Chenoweth, who's easy seven, two.

Okay. Mikey Watertown, whiskey, Mikey, who's a monster of a dude. My guy down here at the beach, big cat, who's legit six, four, six, four, six, four, six, I was like looking around going, I'm going to get smaller friends. That's why you keep me around. Yeah. Maybe, maybe Kyle, the reason we don't hang out is actually my issue with just going, I don't know, because I mean, Kyle looked like he was a big guy.

He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy.

He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. He was a big guy. That's why you keep me around. Yeah, maybe, maybe Kyle, the reason we don't hang out is actually my issue with just going, I don't know. Cause I mean, Kyle looked like twice the size of me, not just taller. So it was, but it was a great show. It was really great. Like seriously, I'm not bullshitting anybody. I have such an appreciation for Philadelphia

that I didn't have before. I just thought everybody was just a bunch of dicks and had no reason to want to go there. And now with the museums alone and everybody was so friendly, more people agreed with me and beat in person than online. I'm a little too online in my relationship with Philadelphia, so I think that's been a problem as well. I was like, does everybody think this way?

And then I walk around, you're taking it in, contest you in, you know, it's everywhere and you're just going, oh, everybody's more on the same page here. Like, yeah, no way. The sampling of four people is inaccurate. So it was good to see Kyle. We had a beer together. That's a sight of proof. And he bought me a fun bag of like, whatever that.

We went to the garage. Yeah, fun bags. Leon, red. Just a pouch of booze. As soon as we saw the fun bags, I was like, well, I'm not drinking one of those, but I'm getting one for Kyle. Although I could see myself like at a last call moment being like the fun bags, I was like, well, I'm not drinking one of those, but I'm getting one for Kyle. Although I could see myself like in a last call moment

being like fun bags for everybody. Yeah, what's left? Can I tell you one thing, because I don't think I remember to tell you this story on next week. My Poughkeepsie guys moved the barricade and drove right up to the front of the theater whenever it was letting out,

just told everyone they were picking you up. I just thought that was a pretty cool move by them. I was like, how did you guys park here? Like we said, we were picking the podcast guy up and they were like, Ryan, they're like, yeah, yeah, get away from the car. Anyway, I just thought that was funny. Yeah. And Wargon was there too.

So it was, uh, was good. I was also there. Yeah. You enjoy it. Do you have a good time? Great time. Yeah. you enjoy it? Did you have a good time? Great time, yeah. Couple reabs later. We're bearing the lead too is that at that bar,

we had trouble getting Chris in because he forgot his ID and the bouncer didn't know who he was, which is like super cop at the front door there. He got go birds all over the walls, have no idea who Chris Long is. To be fair, there's another version of that story where they felt like the inquiry into why Chris Long wasn't in there was a tad aggressive for their liking.

So then the podcast dad had to go over and kind of smooth everything over. And then once the woman was like, I don't know who any of the people are that you're talking about. And I went totally gut. And I was like, can I start over with me and then the guy was like oh seriously I was like yeah he's just right outside is that fine they were like yeah of course it is but we just it was your approach was different I'm sorry and no no Kyle gets excited he was blaming me I was like wait a second I saw an angle of Kyle backstage while Chris Long was just

randomly talking about something and Kyle was backstage cheering, like going like this. That's how excited he was for any former Patriot to be within arm's length of him. Okay, now with the vibes being maybe the best they've ever been in 24, let's talk Alliance. Recap, Saruti. Well, Kyle and I were kind of jabbing last week

and rightfully so, we both lost. We went two and well, Kyle and I were kind of jab in last week and rightfully so we both lost, we went two and two, you and work on one, how the turntables. Yeah. So that's what we deserve. It's fine. Got a little mouthy. Uh, you are all three and two on the season. I am two and three.

Again, we're not, we're taking some all spreads. So me being two and three is actually quite embarrassing, uh, but feeling, feeling good on about a bounce back week here. So we are still, we haven't yet to hit one, but we're getting into the territory where like, if we hit one, we're still gonna be in the money. But we can't wait too much longer. That's so sad.

Let's stop waiting then. Let's go. See you in the day, let's go. I want you to lead us off. I'm leading off. All right, I'm going all over 41 and a half, Ohio State, Iowa. Iowa's actually got like a bit of an offense this year. Their biggest weapon is another punting game

So I'll see Ohio State hasn't really had to open it up yet, but maybe this is the game So over 41 and a half. Okay. Love it. I Guess I'll go I'm gonna take another over I'll go Virginia Stanford I'm gonna take the over 45 and a half there Every Stanford game has gone over this total this season all but one Virginia Tech, Stanford, I'm gonna take the over 45 and a half there. Uh, every Stanford game has gone over this total this season, all but one Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech games have gone over this total this year. And the one that didn't was, uh, was missed by half point. I love Kyron drones motivated after the Miami game.

And I think Stanford probably runs all over them. I like, I like points here. I like drones too. I liked them in the Vandy game. Like early on I went, Hey, I kind of like watching this guy. Yeah. So I have a, my, my my dynasty in NCAA 25 is Virginia Tech, and he's awesome to play with.

So I'm kind of a Virginia Tech fan these days. You're a sneaky Virginia Tech guy? Yeah, what's up? Wow, that is, I didn't even know that. Yeah, wouldn't attack me for one, but yep. I call you twice a day. Okay, if we're going by height, I'll go third here. I'm ready for the Tennessee breakout game.

Um, I, and I mean this from like just a Nico Iamaljava freak show type of game. And that's kind of what I'm looking at here against Arkansas. Now if you look at the defensive ranking numbers and if you go yards per play, which is probably the best thing to look at here, although the schedule strength, the schedule opponents kind of quality it's all over the place as well. Arkansas is middle of the pack in college football. Tennessee, by the way, is a half a yard better than any other team in college football. As far as opponents yards per play, they're 2.8 Ohio States, 3.3 with different schedules,

by the way, and that, although I wouldn't say Oklahoma's offense exactly went crazy when you're mentioning your quarterback at halftime. Um, so I believe the line Saruti right now, the live line is Tennessee at Arkansas minus 14 and a half. So within the parameters are what we need to do to keep it a plus 400. Can I get it to minus nine and a half? Nine and a half. Yep. Okay.

That's what you got. Tennessee minus nine and a half. And I think for a, a Nico Heisman, maybe push here. Arkansas is not very good. They're not a disaster. They were in it with A&M. Um, the Oklahoma state game is incredibly frustrating. So it's kind of a bigger number for a team that you may think is worse if you

haven't, and I don't expect anyone to have been watching them necessarily, but they, I just, I'm waiting on this, this, this moment from Nico to really light up offensively. We haven't had it yet. Kyle. All right. Um, well, last week I tried to connect the two branches of college football and college basketball.

We had did our ACC preview. I'm not going to do that. We just did our, uh, big East preview with the one and only John Fanta. And I'm not going to take you con just because of that. I'm going to take Georgia at home. So I think that's, we're gonna try to go a little safer. So Rudy managed me, he kinda the odds gatekeeper. He told me I could not do minus 16 and a half

at minus 220. So I'm gonna do, can I? Then I'll do that. Me, Wargon and Ryan, our bets are all in the minus 170 range. Kyle comes in with a hot minus 220. So his bet is a little bit less aggressive than ours. I thought we were trying to win these guys, but that's all right.

We are, but you go ahead, do your thing, do your thing. All right, then I'll do the thing. I'm gonna die on the hill now, the cameras are on. So minus 16 and a half, Georgia at home versus Auburn. Good luck with trying to figure out any Auburn week. But I like the bounce back emotionally, like if Georgia's even close to who we think they are, can they put out any Auburn week. Um, but I like the bounce back emotionally. Like if George is even close to who we think they are, can they put it on Auburn? I kind of hate my pick to be honest with you, cause Arkansas could be five and

oh, the Oklahoma state thing was a disaster and they fumbled the ball. But I think they were minus three in turnovers last week against A&M. So Arkansas actually is probably better. And the number, I'm actually talking myself into like, just I didn't even want an alt line. Give me Arkansas plus. Have I ever done that? Where I'd be like, can I get Arkansas plus 20 actually? But no, I'm going to stay with the initial thought plan on this one. But as I started thinking about it, I go, this is a really stupid sucker type bet. Like, Hey, Nico needs to throw touchdowns. So he's going to

throw a lot in Arkansas. So let's go like their jerseys. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's, wait a minute. You're kind of, you're kind of take it easy on the vibe influence on some of the picks. But yeah, mine's a, mine's a loser pick, but I'm going with my gut. I'm not going to change my gut. So I hate my pick. All right. Let's get the picks. I thought we said vibes are high. Apparently they're vibes are high vibes are high apparently there vibes are high

Vibes are high collectively, but when I went you're just hanging out. Well, it was done. It was a weird 36 hours for me I was hanging out with people. I was like look at all of these people like a thousand people. What is this? Yeah, you won't see a thousand people one on one in the next two years. So, uh By the way, I had the worst insomnia slash nightmares. I'm not a dream recap guy, but holy fuck. I had one, two beers. I don't even remember. I think I had one or two beers that night. So I had nothing to do with that. If I took you through the recap of the dreams that I had that night in a Philadelphia hotel room and I couldn't sleep. So I think it was like an insomnia deuce thing. Are we still taping? All right, let's get to it. Um, couch, couch, money research.

So last week, Sarutti, it was a one, one and one. Yep. Um, did I still look for your first W you did? I know. This has been terrible. Okay. All right. So the couch is, and I'll get the latest stuff here to make sure.

Give me Cleveland plus three and a half at Washington. This commander's thing's a little too hot right now. Okay. It's just a little too hot. I originally was going to go with when I saw the matchup of Dallas and Pittsburgh, I go, oh wait, everybody's writing off Dallas. People probably over rating Pittsburgh with even though their defense is insane. But is it actually a bad matchup with Dallas defense? Maybe it is, I don't know. And I kinda like Dallas in this one, and then I realized it was one of the most public plays that everybody was thinking all the things

that I was thinking about. So the couch pick of watching all the games on the couch can be Cleveland plus three and a half in this. The money, fading the public. The biggest public play as of right now are the Vikings who were plus four on the open and are now minus two. So the other biggest public play was Cowboys plus two and a half at Pittsburgh.

I was actually gonna do that one from the couch, but since it was so public, then I was gonna stay away from it. So let's do this. Let's go Jets plus three is the latest number that I have as of right now to fade the public. And then the research pick right now is Cincinnati at home against the Ravens plus two and a half. So as of right now, final overall standing, Saruti. Um, re the, the research has been the best so far. Correct? Three and one.

Yep. So the sharp, not sharp number that we get each week is three and one fading. The public on the biggest public plays is one and three. Yeah. Public's been hot this year. It's a, yep. is three and one fading the public on the biggest public plays is one and three. Yeah. Public's been hot this year. It's uh, yep. No, it has. You're right. You're right. And then Rosillo is getting his ass kicked. I'm just going to stop watching games and do, yeah, who needs it more and whose team is it segments on Monday. All right. That's the Alliance, man. Check it all out. FanDuel, the best sportsbook you can find online.

You want details? Fine. I drive a Ferrari, 355 Cabriolet. What's up? I have a ridiculous house in the South Fork. I have every toy you can possibly imagine. And best of all, kids, I am liquid. So now you know what's possible. Let me tell you what's required. Okay Josh is with us. Life advice are at gmail.com. Let's run through a bunch of these and chances are

I'm laying out on most of this so we can probably get through a few. Okay here's one. Am I doing this right? 27 years old, 5'10", 185. We're gonna give you the comps, Josh. Max Streus, MBA comp, but not the Heat Playoff version. That guy was good. I'll keep it short and sweet. I'm curious if I'm doing the whole finances thing correctly. I've largely done what I've done financially, outlined below based on cherry picking advice

from my far smarter finance graduate friends. Context, 27 years old, living in a major city, making 130,000 a year in the sales role. Rent is running me 1800 a month plus utility. 1800 in a major city, you'd probably start off with a good start already. No credit card debt, no student loans, 30,000 in high yield savings account

that was adjusted to 4.1, so that just happened. 30,000 in individual stock portfolio, mostly in ETFs. 11,000 in a Roth IRA with 3,000 more planned to allocate max out this year. 21,000 in a 401k account. I'm doing 6% an employer match. 23,000 in RSUs with my company that best over the next four years. Can I be doing more? Should I move some of these assets around? What advice would you give?

So the only thing I would take issue with is the 30% in cash. If you don't have plans to use that right away, maybe you don't need as big of an emergency fund. At 27, it sounds like there's no dependence in the situation. There's no real estate ownership. It's not like, oh, the roof is leaking and I have no emergency, right? So I think that's probably the only very, very minor thing I would bring to the

table is just say, do you really need that much earning 4%? Because when you invest in stocks, you're shooting for a longer term average annual return of 7% or 8%. And in the last couple of years, it's actually been double that. So are you under invested in the equity market given your age and your lack of need for current income on that cash? Again, 4% is great, but remember inflation is 3%. So you're really making 1% in real terms and you're too young to be okay with 1%. By the way, at 27, I think you're doing great, man.

100%. One thing that I would add, that's I think a general question for all of us, is there's probably nothing that CPAs love more than when a client comes in being like, I saw this tax hack on Instagram where I can rent my house to my own LLC, or so, you know, and every good tax attorney's like,

stop it. There's been a lot of momentum lately when you look at the returns. If you were to take, keep all of your money, not invest in a 401k, even with the match part of it, it just felt like the popularity of the long-term 401k versus just investing as a single investor in the returns, that there seemed to be momentum for that. How do you feel about that? Well, you can speculate better outside of the 401k structure

so if you You know a lot of this is like in hindsight and it's outcome oriented. So like if I said to you in 20 If I said to you ten years ago in 2014 You should put all of your money into a 401k that you can to maximize the amount of taxable income you're not being taxed on. And you should allocate stock market and just don't touch it, leave it alone. That would have been good advice. You would have done really well.

But if you were weighing that versus buying Bitcoin, which in 2014 was probably, I don't know, I'm going to say probably $300, then I look like an asshole in hindsight for having told you, no, no, no, no, no, don't buy Bitcoin, idiot. Allocate to the 401k, max out. You would have said 10 years later, you gave me bad advice. So a lot of this is outcome oriented because you also could have taken that money and bought a penny stock that went to zero. And then you would have said, Josh, I should have listened to you.

So for most people, the standard advice is still the right advice. There's a reason it became the standard advice. And the standard advice is defer spending today so that your capital can grow and you can afford to live in the more expensive world of tomorrow. And the more money you put into a vehicle like the 401k, the better, not just because it's going to grow in concert with the stock market, but because you literally can't touch it. And this is a powerful thing behaviorally to take yourself out of the equation, so to speak.

It's not a brokerage account. You can't just log in and pull it out any time you want to use it on a bachelor party. So I still think that's the right advice. I'm not saying there's no possible way you can do better outside of that. I'm saying the pros outweigh the cons of just getting that money somewhere where you can't mess with it and let the magic of compounding work without your involvement. I like that. Okay, six foot 200 Tyronn Lue, but too often get called into being Iverson and pick up when I have bad teammates. Okay. I like this title. It's investing while poor,

his word. I live in a low income neighborhood. I'm financially responsible. I have some savings. I'd like to invest while fractional ownership via stocks or index funds low income neighborhood. I'm financially responsible. I have some savings I'd like to invest. While fractional ownership via stocks or index funds get the return, I want to invest in my local businesses. All caps. I don't have enough money to start a business, but just want to feel the ownership vibe and put some sweat equity into the business

to help be successful. I want to be on those investor calls or see myself in the owner's box. What are the mechanisms for this? I'd invest in an older new businesses, not just for the return, this is money I'd be willing to lose. This is the number one thing

that when we talk to people in their 20s, we really try to hammer home. We have people in their 20s ask us about their asset allocation, or like is Google better than Meta? Like going into the earnings, it's like dude, the number one thing you wanna do at the stage of the game that you're at right now is double and triple down on you

The income that you yourself can earn is going to dwarf anything that happens with your investments It is the most important investment you could make you don't need to buy a fractional share of Apple. You need to take that money and put it toward an advanced degree or a professional designation that allows you to earn a higher income or use it to travel and go to networking events for the industry that you want to be in. Use it to take a very successful person that you have access to, out to dinner and ingratiate yourself with people who can help your career. That's how you're supposed to be investing in your 20s.

Anything that's not 401k, and part of like a corporate retirement plan. I don't think Gen Z people right now should be like overly focused on what stocks they're trading. I think they should be focused on how they make it so that they can earn a seven-figure income Seven-figure income is gonna be a mandatory if you if you want to have a upper middle class or higher Lifestyle ten years from now. That's where it's going. Don't get mad at me for being the person that's saying it to you I'm telling you based on the cost of living,

you wanna be in Chicago, New York, LA, Miami. You wanna have a garage where you can park your car, luxury apartment. You wanna have a lifestyle where you can be in the Hamptons or you can be in Vegas with your buddies or whatever. That's rapidly approaching. It's gonna take like seven figures a year, 10 years from now, 15 years from now.

You got to make it so that you have the capability of earning enough income to be part of that. You don't have to worry about what stocks to buy. So I think that's a really great question. And I think the right answer is bet on you invest in you. You'll have plenty of time to be old like me in my 40s and worried about what stocks to own. Great answer.

I'd add one little thing that whenever I hear about somebody, they didn't prioritize sweat equity over money in this email in particular, but I think for other people and other experiences where it's like, yeah, I'd love to get involved or I can make calls or I can do this or I can totally help this stuff, right? The people that put their money in are never going to look at you as a partner. They're, they're just not, unless your brand is so valuable, which would then mean like, why, you know, there's certain people that are at a level where their attachment to something then brings in something that feels like quantifiable,

but the local business getting started and think how hard it was for them to get any of the first shovel into the ground and like you being around all that kind of stuff. My experience has been the people that put the money in don't even look at you as anything close to an equal. One other thing on that, and I spent a lot of time with people in their seventies and eighties who are extraordinarily wealthy and when you ask, and like not trust fund people, like people that earned it. And when you ask them

like what their fondest memories are from their career, or you ask them like what, like what was the best, you assume they're going to tell you this story of the first time they got a seven figure bonus or the first time they made a billion dollars on a trade or it's never that. It's always these stories about, man, we had a ping pong table instead of a desk and we would work till nine o'clock at night and we would scrounge enough money together for a pizza and we would just be on the phones working or we would just be grinding out a spreadsheet. or we would just be grinding out spreadsheets or whatever. Those are the stories that they have this golden glow

in their mind's eye. And that's like, so this idea of sweat equity, this is gonna be a miserable time in your life. This is gonna be the stories that you tell when you're fabulously rich and successful about when you had nothing, how many, how many stories from billionaire people start with I had nothing. They, they smile when they tell that story of how they got started. And you will too. So yeah, do this one equity part.

Don't worry about the capital investment. Invest your whole being body, mind and soul. It's so much more important. Okay. A couple more here. Uh, what should I do with a lump sum of cash? I think this plays for a lot of people, a situation for Josh, uh, through my efforts at work, I'm going to soon receive a cash sum of about twice my annual salary.

Some people have a bonus heavy results based pay structure all the time, but a one time large amount like this is very unusual for me. It may not happen again. He said his income is in the $120,000, $220,000 a year range. So he doesn't say what the lump sum will be, but he says later on, that's what his salary is. So I think that's important for Josh to kind of understand. So buy a house. All right. So, um, look, he just, he wants to give us a little background here because he's got some dependence here, a wife and four kids.

So I got to imagine he's, he's probably on the low end. If he got started real early, mid thirties, maybe mid forties, maybe in that range. Um, I would describe, uh, what I have as a starter home in an expensive area with a big mortgage but a low interest rate. I have some back taxes to pay one large credit card. My only other debt is a large student loan on income based repayment. My wife would really like a new car. I'm self-employed like we said, income 120 to 220 range. I'm way behind on retirement savings. Buy a house because you have four kids already, so it's too late.

You have to enjoy the life that you're living with them. If you're in a starter home, sell the starter home, wipe out your debt, make a down payment on a bigger house. The real estate is not going to appreciate at the same rate. Home prices, not in the last three years, but just generally 50 years, 75 years, home prices appreciate on average, this is a national average between one and 2%. Now, of course, there's a lot of variation in different regions, but don't worry about that. You're not going to look at the house

as an investment. You're going to look at it as a form of consumption. It may end up being a good investment. It's probably not going to materially outpace the rate of inflation, but it's not the point. You have a family of four kids. The memories that you're making right now are like the most core important memories of your entire life, so enjoy it. And the way to enjoy it is, I think, not to have that lump sum sitting in S&P fund. You'll do that over time as you save more for retirement.

You're in the consumption years. Anyone that has kids right now understands what I'm saying. These are not necessarily the best investing years, they're the best consumption years. So I would say use that to upgrade the housing situation and wipe out some of those debts and back taxes and things. And that'll be a really great investment spiritually, probably financially too, but later.

That's where I would go with that. You're right. I'd say like the seven or eight markets that I'm monitoring and I get the Zillow alerts every projection one year from now is a growth of one to like 1.7%. And I'm like, I feel like this is kind of just the same formula over and over and over. You talk to like, you talk to like 1.7%. And I'm like, I feel like this is kind of just the same formula over and over. You talk to like, Oh, you talk to like people out, Ryan, people are our parents age.

And they're like, I bought this house for, you know, $70,000, uh, cash. And they think they've made this amazing investment. And then you run the numbers. It's like, all right, let's pretend you didn't put a dollar into the house since. Cause some guys sometimes it might be accurate, but let's right let's let's pretend it's the shag carpeting and the same wallpaper from the 70s Here's we let's regress the number and let's see like what your actual uh, keger Is for the house and it's like oh you actually did terribly that terribly. That's like when they say so and so is a billionaire. Yeah, but like if he just bought the S&P 500 rather than, you know, did all these dumb

investments, he would be up 10x. So the home is consumption. It may end up being a good financial decision too, but it's definitely a good personal decision. Okay, last one. This one says, I host a sports talk show, but I'm addicted to day trading, signed RR 2014. I mean. That was me. But I think there's a lot of guys right now that there's nothing funnier than going back and thinking about my buddies right after college

that were like, dude, I'm kind of good at it. I was like, you are, you're good at it. And then it was, they were never good at it. Uh, I keep right now a little account myself, but it's just to feel it. It's just to say, I think that's way too low. I'll buy it. I'll sit on it or whatever. It's money that is not important to me.

Yeah. Um, which is, you know, working this long, I'm lucky enough to be able to say something like that. But for the people out there that think that this is viable, um, your, because we got a lot of emails on that, all these people and their strategies and everything. There's an apocryphal study that fidelity did, uh, years and years and years ago. It's disappeared from the internet, which leads some people to believe that it's not, it doesn't, it never existed, but I know it did.

And they were looking to see, uh, which of their account holders had the best returns. And then they, they were going to try to figure out why, like, what are these, what are these investors doing that all the other investors aren't? It's like Icelandic banking before the collapse. Why are these guys so good at it? Yeah. So they, so basically the conclusion of the study was these are people who forgot they had an account here. These people never logged in. Oh, that's beautiful. That's perfect.

I can't prove that I've seen this, but I know 10 people who will swear to God that they've seen it also, and it's gone because it works contra to the interests of the industry. And everyone swears it doesn't exist. But directionally, it's probably right. The less you do, the better. Now, here's a caveat. You absolutely should keep a trading account. It's how you learn how the world really works. It's how you learn businesses. It forces you to listen to conference calls and pay attention to prices and trends and attitudes. It makes you just a sharper, better business person to have a few stocks in a portfolio

and quote unquote manage them. So I'm not one of these doctrinaire people that's like, just index, why would you do anything else? No, most of what you do should be passive, but then like keep a hand on it and, uh, like stay connected to the markets. I think it's good for everyone, no matter what you do. So I think if you're a certain point to, and it's not, it's not going to ruin your

life, um, to have a little rainy day. Number in there. That's not even in anything waiting for the next correction waiting for any kind of news. Like that's when I think it gets fun. Like I started getting to a point where I was like, if I see a bunch of headlines that feel like they're super targeted to try to take down a company that I still think is a real viable company, then I'll just wait around.

I'll just wait around for like what I think are a dumb 24 hour news cycle of headlines. Just this year, just this year, Starbucks from 100 to like the 60s and then they brought in the guy from Chipotle, like the genius who turned Chipotle into the most valuable quick service restaurant in the world after McDonald's to run Starbucks, the stock went up 25% in like one day. You've got to be in this game. Like how, like, that's the only thing I've learned that after getting my ass kicked, you know,

for all of those years and watching you guys be like, Ooh, that sounds interesting. Chinese lumber. You know what I mean? I'm in like that makes a ton of sense. Look at the square footage. So you gotta be in the game. What? Cause I still love being in it. I need that juice, but it is not even close to impacting the square footage. So you gotta be in the game. Cause I still love being in it. I need that juice. I'm with you. But it is not even close to impacting the long-term bottom line.

And it just, it's a fading the public headlines. And it really kind of like, has a lot like sports where I think of how the NFL has talked about on a Monday and then everybody's kind of settled down by Thursday. Yeah. Like the outcomes that were so important and meant everything and was gonna direct the path of the rest of the season. And then on Thursday, everybody's kind of over it.

And then once I started noticing these things that were happening in your world, I go, it's the exact same thing. So, right. It's like you have the program director of the TV network is like steering the tenor of conversation in one direction and then everyone gets bored of it and then it starts swinging back the other way and nothing's changed. It's like nothing's changed except what people-

It's the only thing I've been able to figure out. I go, everybody cares so much about this outcome, this headline on Monday, and then the market reflected it because everybody else was at home watching it all. And then by Thursday, like it'll have, and look, you gotta have something that you like and you believe in, which you could still be wrong, get hit enough that you feel like it's on sale

all of a sudden, but it's actually been a better strategy than anything I've ever paid. The Knicks trade this weekend, they announced it. Nick's fans are furious. Then the next day, day two, it's like, actually it was the only move. And then like two days later, it's like, oh my God, we just did the best trade ever.

This is so, it's the same thing in investing. You're a hundred percent right. It's because we're all people. It's not different people. Now you can really get into the human nature stuff, which I love too. Look, I love the book. Last quick question. Would Nancy Pelosi be the best fund manager if she were not in politics? Well, if she were not in politics, that would dry up the source of her alpha. So no. Caught that. Very good, very good answer.

It was like almost a logic question. You weren't supposed to see that Josh Brown, there's so much more in there. And I think the most important thing, if this is not something you're, maybe you're intimidated by, I'm intimidated by it all the time, right? I know what I know in sports

and I think about these other topics, I go, I'm just not there, right? But the motivation to want to read something like this and to start thinking like that to me is the first step of ever figuring anything out that you actually are aware that you want to learn more about something that is incredibly important. So like I said, I love the format. I love the way you laid it all out and I'll continue to be a fan. So thanks Josh. Ryan, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thanks to Wargon in person. Mike loves seeing it and, uh, Saruti and Kyle, of course,

King of the Vibes. That'll do it for the podcast. Please check out our YouTube page, breakdown of the Carl Anthony Towns trade and some NBA media day highlights. Ryan Roussela podcast. Bring your spot. Must be 21 and older, present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org forward slash chat in Connecticut or visit md gambling help.org in Maryland.

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