WSJ What’s News - More Americans Identify as Republican. What It Means for the Election.

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

P.M. Edition for Oct. 9. More Americans identify as Republican than Democrats. WSJ reporter Aaron Zitner discusses what it might mean for the presidential election. And as millions of Florida residents brace for Hurricane Milton, the Journal’s Michelle Hackman explains how misinformation is complicating FEMA’s efforts. Plus, WSJ’s Nate Rattner on the growing influence of “news influencers.” Tracie Hunte hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This podcast is brought to you by Wisdom Tree Portfolio Solutions. Elevate your portfolio management with our bespoke strategies, comprehensive reviews, and in-depth collaboration. Our services help you streamline operations, allowing you to dedicate more time to grow your practice. Visit wisdomtree.com backslash portfolio solutions for details. Hurricane Milton is just hours away from slamming into an already battered Florida. And Biden and the Iñahu talked to each other for the first time since August. Plus, more Americans identify as Republicans rather than Democrats.

What does that mean for the election? This is the first time at this point in an election cycle Republicans have a lead right before an election in party ID and they're polling it's a three-point lead and it's just an unusual development and it's something very foundational and important structural element of this election. It's Wednesday October 9th. I'm Tracy Hunt for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories that move the world today. Hurricane Milton, a category three storm, is expected to make landfall in

Florida tonight or early Thursday. The fact that it's coming just days after Hurricane Helene is proving to be a logistical nightmare for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA. But FEMA's biggest concern isn't a lack of money or personnel. FEMA officials say their efforts are being complicated by an unusual level of politically-charged misinformation. Michelle Hackman is a reporter for The Wall Street Journal and she joins us now. So Michelle, what kind of misinformation have you heard

in the aftermath of Helene and in the run up to Milton? Yeah, I would say false or misleading information has been spreading like wildfire on social media. And some of it has been sort of fanned by Donald Trump, by his campaign, ranging from, you know, the Biden administration is taking money away from disaster efforts at FEMA to pay for migrants, to pay for their transportation and their housing. FEMA does play some role in managing the border, but it's an entirely separate pot of money funded by Congress. Another really common one is that FEMA is only going to distribute funds to minority groups, to black people, to indigenous people.

And if you're white, you need not apply. You know, FEMA has taken pains to say that is not true. Anyone in need will qualify for a FEMA grant. What is FEMA doing to combat these rumors? FEMA has thrown up a rumor response page. It's very long, addresses lots of rumors. They've been doing press conferences trying to spread correct information out there. And on a call today, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said she's actually seen that level of misinformation starting to level off and go down. Michelle Hackman is a WSJ reporter based in Washington.

Thanks, Michelle. Thank you. President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone for the first time today since August 21st. The White House said Vice President Kamala Harris joined the call and

the State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken was also on the call. White House Press Secretary Kareem Jean-Pierre said the call between the two leaders was direct and productive, lasting about 30 minutes. No details of the conversation were released. U.S. officials say that Israel has so far refused to divulge to the Biden administration details of its plans to retaliate against Te against Iran. The White House is urging its closest Middle East ally not to hit Iran's oil facilities or nuclear sites amid fears of a widening regional war.

Coming up, with less than a month before the presidential election, pollsters reveal a huge shift in party identification. That's after the break. 55 interest-free days and the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash Business Platinum. The GOP has its first durable lead in party identification in more than three decades,

as more voters are now calling themselves Republicans than Democrats. According to combined NBC polls this year, 42 percent of voters identified themselves as Republicans, a two-point lead over Democrats at 40%. In 2020, Democrats led by six points, seven points in 2016, and nine points in 2012. Joining us now to break down the numbers is Aaron Zittner, a reporter and editor for The Wall Street Journal. So Aaron, when did pollsters begin to see the shift from majority Democrats to majority Republicans?

Aaron Ross Well, this is really an unusual development. This is the first time at this point in an election cycle that some pollsters find a Republican lead, more voters calling themselves Republican than Democratic. In past years, Democrats have held the lead in almost every year. And sometimes it's been as big as seven points or nine points that more people are calling themselves Democrat than Republican. So to have any kind of Republican lead is a big deal and something different than in the past. What's behind this change?

Well, these numbers tend to move in tandem with views of the president. In Gallup polling, there have only been three years since 1991 where more people called themselves Republican than Democratic. The first was in 1991. That was the year of the first Gulf War, and people at that time were rallying behind President George Bush. And he was popular at least until the 1992 election. Another time this was very transitory was after the terror attacks of 2001 and under the second President Bush where his approval

readings were very, very high. But the only other times really that the lead was durable were in 2022 and 2023, recent years, in tandem with President Biden's sinking approval ratings. So views of the president seem to be one of the main factors that are in people's heads when we go to ask, do you consider yourself a Republican or a Democrat? So what does this mean for the election? Will this be an advantage for the GOP's nominee Donald Trump? It's a structural advantage.

When you consider that, you know, 90% or so of people who say that they belong to a party are going to vote for that party's candidates, you want to know, do I have more of these people than the other team? Just go back to the midterms in 2022 and more Republicans than Democrats voted nationally and in a lot of states. And yet Democrats won all the marquee races in those states. So it's an important structural advantage for Trump this time to see this GOP lead in party identification, but it's not the only thing going on in an election.

And what might this mean for the Democrats candidate, Kamala Harris? This is a disadvantage for Kamala Harris. But for a candidate, it's not only do you have an advantage in party identification, but can you hold and win the votes of the people who say they align with your party. And right now, at least in some polls, Kamala Harris is doing a better job of holding on to people who consider themselves Democrats than Donald Trump is in holding on to people who call themselves Republicans. Erin Zittner is a Wall Street Journal reporter and editor in the Washington, D.C. Bureau.

Thank you, Erin. Good to be with you. Social media influencers have taken on a greater role in the political landscape. For the first time, they were credentialed right alongside legacy media at this year's Democratic National Convention. The Trump campaign, meanwhile, hosted creators at a hotel near last month's Harris-Trump debate. According to a journal analysis of data from social media research firm Credo IQ,

among the 200 politically focused TikTok accounts with the most viral posts created in June and July, those with 25,000 or more views, one-fifth were news influencers. Viral posts from top-performing mainstream media accounts still had broader overall reach, with more than 1.2 billion views, but posted less frequently. Social influencers post anything from straightforward news stories like this one from TikToker Vitis V Spear, aka Under the Desk News. It's official President Biden posted a letter on X saying that he will not be seeking reelection, but he is not stepping down from being the president.

To responses and opinions to news events like the NYU student, Harry Sisson. Now I have to be honest, I'm saddened by this news. I've met President Biden, he was a fantastic man and he's been a fantastic president. My colleague, Pierre Bienneme, spoke with our reporter, Nate Ratner, about how these influencers have been able to go viral compared to legacy

media accounts. Nate Ratner, Senior Journalist, The New York Times The influencers that we examined in the story showed a great ability to kind of break through the noise. They're doing things that legacy media can struggle at, connecting with people online and on social media, especially younger audiences who are more likely to get their news on platforms like TikTok. There are some concerns, though, about these sort of independently operating accounts.

They might struggle to do as much fact checking or stick to the standards of objectivity that traditional media organizations strive for. What do these news influencers do well that legacy media doesn't so much? One of the advantages of these accounts is their ability to sort of speak more freely and build a relationship with their viewers on social media.

And that can be a great thing. It's something that I think a lot of legacy media accounts struggle to do on TikTok. The other side of it is that because of this sort of more freewheeling nature, there can be times where there is a blending of fact and opinion in the same post. And I think the lines are just a little bit more blurred on TikTok than they are in traditional news sources like cable TV or a newspaper.

There's just more of an onus on the audience to try to separate fact from opinion in this short form video format. That was our reporter, Night Ratner, speaking with my colleague, Pierre Bainime. We're learning more about what went into the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by half a point last month. Minutes from the Fed's September 17th and 18th meeting released today reveal that officials were divided over how much to reduce interest rates.

The decision to lower the benchmark rate to a range between 4.75% and 5% was supported by 11 of 12 members of the Fed's Rate Setting Committee. One policymaker dissented against the decision in favor of a smaller reduction, and the minutes suggest her reservations may have been shared by other policymakers. According to the written record of the meeting, some officials thought there had been a plausible case to make a quarter point rate cut at the previous meeting in July, and that more recent data had only firmed up the justification for lowering rates. The minutes had less to say about what would determine upcoming rate decisions.

The Federal Reserve's next meeting will be in November. In U.S. markets, the S&P 500 added 0.7 percent today, closing out a record with a tempting turn into the start of the third quarter earnings season, which gets underway in earnest on Friday when several of the largest banks are set to report. The Dow closed up 1% and the Nasdaq 0.6%. And that's what's news for this Wednesday afternoon. Today's show was produced by Pierre Bienneme and Anthony Bansi with supervising producer Michael Kosmitis.

I'm Tracy Hunt for the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back with a new show tomorrow morning. Thanks for listening.